BBO Discussion Forums: Has U.S. Democracy Been Trumped? - BBO Discussion Forums

After a year of high-profile moral victories in special congressional elections, Democrats finally got actual victories on the board, and more. They won big in Virginia, took full control of state government in New Jersey and Washington State, prevailed on an important ballot measure in Maine, and generally posted strong results across the nation.

Together, it was the clearest sign yet that college-educated white voters’ unhappiness with President Trump would jeopardize suburban Republicans in next year’s midterm elections.

... The catch, though, is that the overwhelming Democratic strength in well-educated areas did not cross the political divides of the 2016 election into white working-class areas. In fact, Mr. Northam, a Virginia Military Institute graduate with a strong Southern pedigree, didn’t even come close to matching Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Mr. Obama or Senator Tim Kaine in rural western Virginia. Democratic State Assembly candidates didn’t run well ahead of Mrs. Clinton, either.

Yes, the political divisions of the 2016 presidential election wound up working pretty well for Democrats in Virginia, a highly educated state. But that might not be the case for Democrats in a lot of the rest of the country. There are only 11 Republican-held congressional districts in the United States where Mrs. Clinton won by five points or more. Even if Democrats swept those 11 districts, it wouldn’t get them that far toward the 24 seats they need to flip the House.

To my surprise, it’s not obvious that a rerun of the Virginia House of Delegates election on a national scale would yield Democratic control of the House. Without greater strength in areas that supported Mr. Trump, it would still be a tossup.

The good news for Democrats is that they did run well ahead of Mrs. Clinton in white working-class areas during this spring’s special congressional elections. And on Tuesday, Mr. Northam ran ahead of her in some areas, too, even if he landed short of prior Democratic benchmarks.

The big question in 2018 might prove to be whether Democrats can have it all: Will it be possible to combine a Virginia-like near sweep of Republicans in Clinton districts with a broad Democratic overperformance in white working-class districts? If they can do both, they will be favored to retake the House. One or the other would probably make the fight for House control a tossup. The fact that they’ve done both at various points this year might be an early clue.

When are Dems going to figure out how to bring white working-class voters back to the party? Perhaps a meeting or two with kenberg to discuss strategy would be a good start.

It may be a tough sell. Much of Democratic philosophy involves transfering money from the middle- and upper-class to poor people, and improving life for disadvantaged minorities. This doesn't sound like a party trying to help them. Convincing them that "a rising tide raises all boats" is difficult -- it's hard to consider the long term big picture when you're worried about whether you'll be able to put food on the table.

From Democrats Cheer, but They May Have to Do Better in '18 by Nate Cohn at NYT Upshot:


When are Dems going to figure out how to bring white working-class voters back to the party? Perhaps a meeting or two with kenberg to discuss strategy would be a good start.

although he voted for Ike in 52. I will go to Korea was a very good slogan.

As with almost everything, there is a broad spectrum and no party can appeal to everyone. My interests are no doubt different from what would appeal to a 2017 version of my father. it's a cliche that the world has changed, but it is a true cliche.

For a 2017 Ken Berg, rather than a 2017 Thomas Berg (my father), I think a big item for the Democratic party to think through whether they want me. Am I a friend or an enemy? I do tire of hearing how old white guys are the problem. I do not expect to become trans-gender, or trans-racial, or even younger, so they need to think whether I am part of the problem or part of the solution.

My circumstances are such that I can expect to live in comfort but not luxury as long as my health holds out. That will end some time, as it does for everyone, and ultimately there is nothing that can be done about that. Mostly my political wish now is for the country to go well for future generations, including but not limited to my kids and grandkids. I do think that people have to take care of themselves. Government can help. The USA has been good to me, I appreciate it, I would like it to be good for others in the future. My idea of help is that we help people so that they will need less help in the future.


Reading this over it sounds a bit blah and corny. The main thing is for the D party to stop talking as if I am their enemy. They really need to think about this.

My immigrant father, with his eighth grade education and blue collar job, would no doubt see things a bit differently, but only a bit. My choice of profession was, to his mind, weird. But if it would pay the bills, he found it acceptable. Sort of. Just incomprehensible. We both mostly voted for Democrats, although he voted for Ike in 52. I will go to Korea was a very good slogan.

I never felt myself targeted as an enemy of the Democrats, although white and 66. I don't quite understand that sentiment but then I live in a different part of the country.

When you read this, it is very difficult to think of Trump supporters as anything other than dull-witted pathetic, isn't it?

Perfect targets for a con man. That really is: Sad!

Trump is a stupid man's idea of a smart man, a poor man's idea of a rich man, and a weak man's idea of a strong man.

Trump is a stupid man's idea of a smart man, a poor man's idea of a rich man, and a weak man's idea of a strong man.

ldrews, while most of those talking points are laughable, I'd like to ask you what mechanisms you think are propping the stock market up.

I think it might be an instructive exercise for you to think about given your post.

I never felt myself targeted as an enemy of the Democrats, although white and 66. I don't quite understand that sentiment but then I live in a different part of the country.

ldrews, while most of those talking points are laughable, I'd like to ask you what mechanisms you think are propping the stock market up.

I think it might be an instructive exercise for you to think about given your post.

Could you please explain to me why those talking points are laughable. It seems to me that improving the economic conditions of the middle class/working class is a good thing. You don't?

Sure, after you tell me about the stock market.

Out of curiosity, which ISP do you use?

I guess 66 million voters are stupid, poor, and weak.

But the economy has improved, businesses are moving back to the US, stock market at record highs, unemployment at 17 year lows, consumer confidence at multi-year highs, illegal border crossings down by 40+%, regulations are being reduced, NATO has been motivated to step up their contributions, and the problem of North Korea is being addressed. Unfortunately the Senate cannot get its act together to pass needed legislation or confirm needed appointments, but that is beyond Trump's, and God's, ability to control.