[cnszsun]

Scoring: IMP

(1♣)-1♦-(1♠)-3♦
(3♠)-ps-(4♠)-ps
(ps)-?

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Save now, or if you want to take immediate action after rho's 3♠, please tell me.

[mike777]

hmm I will try Fight the Law (FTL) here.

13-(adjusted whcp)-(combined 2 shortest suits)

13=given
guess of whcp=13=minus 2
guess of 2 shortest suits=minus 4

13-2-4=7 tricks for minus 800 in 5D So I PASS.

Trying LOTT

I will guess 9 D and ten spades for 19 total tricks.

So LOTT seems to say bid 5D for minus 300.


I will go with FTL and pass.

[jdonn]

Of course at this vul saving will be right most of the time that they were making, but I hate it. We have made them guess since 3♠ may have been a stretch so they may not belong in game. And I am not going to just hand back those times we forced them to stretch to game and go down in exchange for some fair saves. Fair not great, since it's hard to believe we aren't down 2 or 3 at least in 5♦X.

[BillHiggin]

If the hand were a little more exciting, I might have tried a preemptive 5♦ over 3♠. In no case would I pass and then save (I am not the diety Barry Crane referred to). This hand is NOT exciting. Saving is simply granting the opps a sure plus score (and possibly a big one).

[neilkaz]

Close for me, but pass. On a good day the opps stretched, both D's cash, the K of ♥ scores and PD gets a trump or a ♣ trick.

Very close as 4♠ is a clear fav to make, IMHO, and we often get 9 tricks in ♦.

Pass 55
5♦ 45

for me White vs Red.

[ArtK78]

I don't understand. I overcalled 1♦ with a lot of defense and little offense and now I am being asked whether I should save or not?

Pass is clear. The only one who would know if it is right to save is partner. He bid 3♦, not 5♦, so in his opinion it is not right to save.

[nick_s]

I agree with jdonn. We've made them guess. Let's see if they guessed wrong. It's no disaster to miss a sacrifice and I hate phantoms.

[gwnn]

In what way am I better than I have already described myself? Can I bid a full 2 levels higher? No. Hence I pass.

[whereagles]

It's a bit of a guess. But our shape is bad and there's no guarantee pard will have a useful singleton. I think I pass.

[pclayton]

gwnn, on Dec 11 2007, 10:13 PM, said:

In what way am I better than I have already described myself? Can I bid a full 2 levels higher? No. Hence I pass.

It's pard who has described his hand to us, not v.v. Saving is our responsibility.

Still I pass. I expect 5♦ is a mild gain (-500) or loss (-800). While it could be cheap, I give partner a lot of leeway in making a green preemptive raise, which would include some hands with a little defense.

[keylime]

I calmly pass - I got a bad feeling that this is 800-ville coming if I take the push. The heart suit is a minus for us, and we have 2 dead clubs and 2 dead spades. Not enough shape to act, and pard can be bidding 3D on any five card diamond suit trying to bury them.

[ArtK78]

keylime, on Dec 12 2007, 12:00 PM, said:

I calmly pass - I got a bad feeling that this is 800-ville coming if I take the push. The heart suit is a minus for us, and we have 2 dead clubs and 2 dead spades. Not enough shape to act, and pard can be bidding 3D on any five card diamond suit trying to bury them.

5 card diamond suit? Try 4.

The LOTT would dictate a 3 bid on 4 cards as we have a 9 card trump fit.

[awm]

Most of the time 5♦X will be 300 or 500. It's probably more likely to be 500 if 4♠ makes and 300 if 4♠ fails (finesses that fail for them work for us, etc). If I was certain that 4♠ was making, I think 5♦ would be the percentage action at these colors.

But sometimes 4♠ doesn't make. Note that -500 is only a small win against -620, whereas -300 is a big loss against +100. So even if 4♠ makes "most of the time" it might still be right to pass it out. I'd pass here. With a black suit singleton I'd probably take the sacrifice.

[keylime]

If on 4 diamonds, pard should have some shortage somewhere - I wouldn't expect pard to do so at any colors, but this is a style thing. I don't trust LOTT as far as I can throw the book.