Help
I love being the guy who sees the results and then makes the double dummy action but...
I would pass. They will never go down more than 1 on this. The opps are bidding strongly and they just jump to 4S, they have a LOT of them. Partner didn't even double them. Partner does not have a lot of tricks. You really should pass imo.
BTW I had a hand in the cavendish where I had 8 spades. LHO opened 1N and partner Xed showing C+H or D+S. RHO XXed. I bid 2D pass or correct, LHO Xed, partner bid 2H, RHO Xed, I bid 2S, and the opps got caught in rhythm when they really shouldnt. I made an overtrick I think. This auction is WAY more obvious because the guy JUMPED lol.
what the?
#22
- Group: Full Members
- Posts: 216
- Joined: 2007-April-29
Posted 2008-February-11, 10:52
Well, I got responder's hand about right. I sure hope that partner runs if responder doubles; otherwise, I have created a worse disaster (down 6). 5♣X appears to be only down 2.
If I had bid 3N over 3♥, I might feel justified in passing 4♠. But I doubt it.
If I had bid 3N over 3♥, I might feel justified in passing 4♠. But I doubt it.
just plain Bill
#23
- 5555
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 9,520
- Joined: 2003-September-04
- Gender:Male
Posted 2008-February-11, 11:50
Jlall, on Feb 11 2008, 10:03 AM, said:
BTW I had a hand in the cavendish where I had 8 spades. LHO opened 1N and partner Xed showing C+H or D+S. RHO XXed. I bid 2D pass or correct, LHO Xed, partner bid 2H, RHO Xed, I bid 2S, and the opps got caught in rhythm when they really shouldnt. I made an overtrick I think. This auction is WAY more obvious because the guy JUMPED lol.
Hmm, I am sure if you gave this hand as a BBF poll asking for the right strategy you would get many comments "getting slowly to 2S might work against weak opponents, but in a decent field (adv+) I would rather preempt to 3S right away."
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
#24
- - - T98765432 AQT8
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 15,085
- Joined: 2005-June-23
- Gender:Male
- Location:Las Vegas, NV
Posted 2008-February-11, 12:54
Jlall, on Feb 11 2008, 11:03 AM, said:
I love being the guy who sees the results and then makes the double dummy action but...
That guy always does so much better than I do too
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#25
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 14,900
- Joined: 2004-May-11
- Gender:Male
- Location:Portugal
- Interests:Everything!
Posted 2008-February-12, 04:29
justin, I don't think pass can be right. I think it's pretty clear either opps are stealing or our side has a good save. We just have to guess which... lol. Pass is gambling they're going down vs nothing. That's hardly expectable. (Can happen of course, but I wouldn't count on it..)
#26 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-12, 10:39
whereagles, on Feb 12 2008, 05:29 AM, said:
justin, I don't think pass can be right. I think it's pretty clear either opps are stealing or our side has a good save. We just have to guess which... lol. Pass is gambling they're going down vs nothing. That's hardly expectable. (Can happen of course, but I wouldn't count on it..)
This argument is wrong. Even if you know 100 % that you must either bid (if they make) or double (if they're down), pass can be the right bid. I will let you figure out why.
#27
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 14,900
- Joined: 2004-May-11
- Gender:Male
- Location:Portugal
- Interests:Everything!
Posted 2008-February-12, 11:04
well, it's not immediately obvious what you mean, so I aint gonna bother too much about it
#28
- Group: Full Members
- Posts: 913
- Joined: 2003-August-18
- Location:California, USA
Posted 2008-February-12, 11:28
Jlall, on Feb 12 2008, 04:39 PM, said:
whereagles, on Feb 12 2008, 05:29 AM, said:
justin, I don't think pass can be right. I think it's pretty clear either opps are stealing or our side has a good save. We just have to guess which... lol. Pass is gambling they're going down vs nothing. That's hardly expectable. (Can happen of course, but I wouldn't count on it..)
This argument is wrong. Even if you know 100 % that you must either bid (if they make) or double (if they're down), pass can be the right bid. I will let you figure out why.
Off hand, I'd note that while if your assumptions are correct pass can't be the best call, it also can't be the worst. So you need look at the cost of being wrong. Passing and avoiding the guess might well be the best (or least bad) option.
#29 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2008-February-12, 15:58
whereagles, on Feb 12 2008, 12:04 PM, said:
well, it's not immediately obvious what you mean, so I aint gonna bother too much about it
simple model: given their range of hands 50 % of the time they make, 50 % of the time they go down. We will go for 300 75 % of the time, 100 25 % of the time
By doubling our total point expectation is (.5*-590)+(.5*100)= -245.
By passing our total point expectation is (.5*-420)+(.5*50)= -185
By saving our total point expectation is (.75*-300)+(.25*-100)= -250
As you can see passing is our best action even though our save is always better than them making, and when they don't make they go down (obviously). Passing is best by a big margin too. Obviously there are more factors but this is the general idea, and can (and often does) hold true.
#30
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 14,900
- Joined: 2004-May-11
- Gender:Male
- Location:Portugal
- Interests:Everything!
Posted 2008-February-13, 04:36
Ok, I see what you mean. Basically, you're minimizing losses.