glen, on Jun 24 2008, 05:47 PM, said:
Jlall, on Jun 24 2008, 02:43 PM, said:
Yes, it amazes me how much faith people put into the butler.
and what stat by pair would you suggest they put their faith in then?
I think trying to use stats for things they cannot be used for is stupid. If you were to say to me:
One pair had a butler of +1, the other of -1, over hundreds of boards. I would say it is safe to draw the conclusion that the +1 pair is playing better than the -1 pair.
If you were to say to me 3 pairs had butlers within .1 imp of each other over a couple of hundred boards, I would say that saying those pairs are all playing roughly equally well is dumb.
Some pairs play mainly against weak pairs strategically (perhaps they have a more active style, or stranger methods). This favors that pair.
Often the weakest pair on a team will be in against the weaker teams while the strongest pair takes a breather. This hurts the strongest pair on the teams butler a lot, and helps the weaker pairs butler.
In imps, since a few boards have a large weight on the overall butler score, sometimes you can get killed on the slam hands just because of luck. This can severely hurt your butler.
So I totally favor drawing reasonable conclusions from the butler, but people consistently draw unreasonable conclusions from them. Drawing unreasonable conclusions is worse than drawing no conclusions.