[benlessard]

Scoring: IMP

---

2Nt-------3D
3H--------3S
3NT-------4C
4D--------???


3S was slammish at least 4 card.
4D was 1st round.

[hotShot]

4H
I think I've shown 6♥, 4♠ and the A of ♣ all that with a shaped hand.
Partners ♦ control is not very encouraging.
Next move is up to partner.

[Cascade]

Tend to be optimistic.

Partner is much more likely to have useful fitting cards than lots of stuff wasted in diamonds.

In a 1000000 hand simulation for a 20-22 2NT requiring a balanced hand here are the probabilities of the strong 2NT having various honours opposite this hand:

AS 87%
AD 83%

KH 79%
KC 75%
KS 72%
KD 66%

QH 61%
QC 56%
QS 52%
QD 46%

Edit:

These numbers will be lower for hearts (and spades) given that partner has not shown a fit. Nevertheless we should be more optimistic than you might imagine.

[Ant590]

I would be interested in the simulations %s for the heart and spade pips also.

[jdonn]

hotShot, on Dec 4 2008, 05:10 AM, said:

4H
I think I've shown 6♥, 4♠ and the A of ♣ all that with a shaped hand.
Partners ♦ control is not very encouraging.
Next move is up to partner.

I agree with everything you said.

The sim is interesting, but I don't think all that helpful. Aside that partner didn't show a fit in either major and cuebid diamonds, it's the odds of all the various combinations of fitting cards that matters, taken in conjunction with partner's possible shapes, not the individual odds of any particular card. Also he is certainly entitled to move over 4♥ by us.

[maggieb]

4♥, my trump suit is too big of a liability to move again if partner can't do it.

[Cascade]

Ant590, on Dec 5 2008, 03:50 AM, said:

I would be interested in the simulations %s for the heart and spade pips also.

I am not sure exactly what you mean since we have the heart 10 and 9.

♠ 10 - 20%
♠ 9 - 20% - all spots should be the same in each suit since they don't count towards the hcp total

♥ J - 43%
♥ 8 - 25%

[benlessard]

Qxx
Kx
AKQJT
KQx

Even 4 is in danger. AK of S lead. club switch. K of H and now you have to pitch 2S even if they are winners before playing H to the T.

Over 4C would you bid 4D or since you have like the worst hand possible bid 4H ?

We werent bidding this hand but i find it painful, if you bid 4D its forward going but if you dont partner will just be more excited because hes thinking you dont have the D ace. I think its not that easy to stop in 4H.

[gwnn]

Cascade, on Dec 4 2008, 10:55 PM, said:

Ant590, on Dec 5 2008, 03:50 AM, said:

I would be interested in the simulations %s for the heart and spade pips also.

I am not sure exactly what you mean since we have the heart 10 and 9.

♠ 10 - 20%
♠ 9 - 20% - all spots should be the same in each suit since they don't count towards the hcp total

♥ J - 43%
♥ 8 - 25%

how is it 20%? isnt it supposed to be 33% or very close to 33%?

[mike777]

benlessard, on Dec 3 2008, 06:57 PM, said:

Dealer: North Vul: Both Scoring: IMP

♠ Jxxx ♥ AT9xxx ♦   ♣ AJx

2Nt-------3D
3H--------3S
3NT-------4C
4D--------???

2nt=3d
3h(no super accept)=4c
?


3S was slammish at least 4 card.
4D was 1st round.

too hard:


prefer 3d and then 4c

[whereagles]

I have 7 losers and a 2NT opener usually has 6 cover cards, so 6 is in order.

However, this auction is very messy. I have no clue what's happening, except that it seems that the hands don't fit well. I'll just play safe and bid 4♥ now. If pard can make a move over this, I'll oblige.

[benlessard]

Quote

how is it 20%? isnt it supposed to be 33% or very close to 33%

Dont tell me you really check his post when he put tons of numbers I always skip them, just a quick look a them and i laugh.

I mean

QH 61%
QC 56%
QS 52%
QD 46%

How is it possible that partner is more likely to have the Q of H than the Q of D ?

If you have a void in D and 6H it doesnt take a genius to know that partner is more likely to be long in D and short in H. So its simply not possible to have the HQ more often than any other queens....



Just kidding... i believe your number are usually write but youve surely done something wrong this time.

[hotShot]

benlessard, on Dec 5 2008, 01:45 PM, said:

I mean

QH 61%
QC 56%
QS 52%
QD 46%

How is it possible that partner is more likely to have the Q of H than the Q of D ?

If you have a void in D and 6H it doesnt take a genius to know that partner is more likely to be long in D and short in H. So its simply not possible to have the HQ more often than any other queens....

The 7 missing ♥ are KQJxxxx so I estimate that holding the average 2.33 cards in ♥ give you a close to 50% chance to have one of the honors.

Additionally if 2NT shows 20-21 and my hand contains 10 than partner has (more) than 66.6% of the HCP.

If you combine these it is not unlikely that the chance to find QH with partner is as big as suggested.

[JLOL]

mike777, on Dec 5 2008, 05:06 AM, said:

too hard:


prefer 3d and then 4c

LOL

[benlessard]

Quote

If you combine these it is not unlikely that the chance to find QH with partner is as big as suggested.

What im saying is that the Q of D is more likely than the Q of H and its not close.

[maggieb]

I see I already posted 4H is best, I still think so!

[Cascade]

gwnn, on Dec 5 2008, 10:59 PM, said:

Cascade, on Dec 4 2008, 10:55 PM, said:

Ant590, on Dec 5 2008, 03:50 AM, said:

I would be interested in the simulations %s for the heart and spade pips also.

I am not sure exactly what you mean since we have the heart 10 and 9.

♠ 10 - 20%
♠ 9 - 20% - all spots should be the same in each suit since they don't count towards the hcp total

♥ J - 43%
♥ 8 - 25%

how is it 20%? isnt it supposed to be 33% or very close to 33%?

because a 20-22 count has fewer spot cards and more pictures than an average hand.

[Cascade]

benlessard, on Dec 6 2008, 12:45 AM, said:

Quote

how is it 20%? isnt it supposed to be 33% or very close to 33%

Dont tell me you really check his post when he put tons of numbers I always skip them, just a quick look a them and i laugh.

I mean

QH 61%
QC 56%
QS 52%
QD 46%

How is it possible that partner is more likely to have the Q of H than the Q of D ?

If you have a void in D and 6H it doesnt take a genius to know that partner is more likely to be long in D and short in H. So its simply not possible to have the HQ more often than any other queens....



Just kidding... i believe your number are usually write but youve surely done something wrong this time.

So we are missing 7 hearts and 13 diamonds - lets look at some probabilities for the queens in each of these suit:

We assume partner has a balanced hand ...

If partner has two hearts:

P(Q) = 1 queen x 6 other cards out of 7 choose 2 possible doubletons = 2/7

If partner has three hearts:

P(Q) = 1 queen x 6 choose 2 other cards out of 7 choose 3 = 6C2 / 7C3 = 3/7

If partner has four hearts:

P(Q) = 1 queen x 6C3 / 7C4 = 4/7

If partner has five hearts:

P(Q) = 1 queen x 6C4 / 7C5 = 5/7

If partner has two diamonds:

P(DQ) = 1 queen x 12C1 / 13C2 = 2/13

If partner has three diamonds

P(DQ) = 12C2/13C3 = 3/13

If partner has four diamonds

P(DQ) = 12C3/13C4 = 4/13

If partner has five diamonds

P(DQ) = 5/13

Summarizing:

With a doubleton heart partner is more likely to have the heart queen than the diamond queen if he has two or three diamonds

With a tripleton or longer heart partner is more likely to have the heart queen than the diamond queen if he has five or fewer diamonds

These probabilities did not take into account that partner is 20-22 hcp. The calculations are more complex if you take that into account but the probabilities nevertheless favour partner having fitting honours.

[benlessard]

Youre a not using the right approach to calculate.

You cannot visualize a distribution and put HCP in it. The distribution is a restriction for the the hcp and the hcp is a restriction for the distribution you have to sims them together not 1 after the other.

Another way to see it...

Partner has 2H. Only time hes got 3 hearts is if slow values in the minors.

If hes has 2D. It means 4-5 in the blacks
Holding AJ of clubs make it higly unlikely that OP has 5 clubs because the missing HCP is a restriction on his distribution. So therfore the % of having short D drops proportionally to the hcp restriction.

Another example

Q
xxxx
xxxx
AKQJ


You know that partner got a strong NT. Because hes got 0 HCP in clubs hes more likely to be long in D/H than in clubs.

So when holding

J
Axxx
xxxx
AKxx

The odds of having the Q of clubs isnt really higher than having the Q of D.


Its not that easy to understand or to explain but i can assure you that im 100% sure that your numbers are wrong.

[jdonn]

Wayne, I know you admitted you weren't taking into account that partner has already denied heart support, but the problem is you also aren't taking into account our hand to determine the length partner tends to have in each suit. Your conclusion is essentially saying "he is moremuch likely to have the heart queen in any given-length heart holding than the diamond queen in the same length diamond holding because the queen is 1/7 of the missing hearts and 1/13 of the missing diamonds." But that completely ignores that partner's diamonds are going to be on average (much?) longer than his hearts since we are 6-0 in those suits.