[gwnn]

xxx
AKQxx
Ax
xxx

partner opens a 10-12 NT. Is this a game force or an invite? You can assume the best continuations that you can wish for (for example stopping in 2♥ opposite a hand that refuses an invitation, several choice of games if partner has 3 hearts, looking for stoppers, whatever you like) - I just kibitzed this hand and I don't know their system, I'd like to know your evaluation.

NV imps.

[akhare]

I would bite the bullet and GF -- there's a potential for 5 ♥s tricks if pard has as little as JX, or if they break 3-3, etc.

[awm]

I'd invite. I think game is odds-against if partner has only doubleton heart. Sure, partner could have ♥Jx or they could be 3-3, but a 10-12 notrump doesn't always produce three tricks on its own either, so even in this case we may not make game.

[Jlall]

I would bid game. If hearts aren't 3-3 then 2N could often be down anyways. I think this is one of those hands where we might be on a break for 9 or 6-7. Also they might have a tough time leading/defending when we have a hand like this etc etc.

[cherdanno]

Jlall, on Oct 10 2009, 10:05 PM, said:

I would bid game. If hearts aren't 3-3 then 2N could often be down anyways. I think this is one of those hands where we might be on a break for 9 or 6-7. Also they might have a tough time leading/defending when we have a hand like this etc etc.

I assume you are bidding 3N?

Btw, if I can really the best continuation I can wish for this hand, I would ask for the number of hearts with 2♣, play 2♥ opposite 2, and 3N opposite 3+

[whereagles]

game force. low hcp is compensated by them being in the right spots.

[Jlall]

cherdanno, on Oct 10 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

Jlall, on Oct 10 2009, 10:05 PM, said:

I would bid game. If hearts aren't 3-3 then 2N could often be down anyways. I think this is one of those hands where we might be on a break for 9 or 6-7. Also they might have a tough time leading/defending when we have a hand like this etc etc.

I assume you are bidding 3N?

Btw, if I can really the best continuation I can wish for this hand, I would ask for the number of hearts with 2♣, play 2♥ opposite 2, and 3N opposite 3+

I would transfer and bid 3N assuming this told partner to use judgement which is how I like to play (and more generally partner will almost always pass with 4333 and bid 4M with a doubleton outside and 3 trumps like 95 %). Admittedly in the old days this was an auto 3N for me, and I'm sure my dad still would bid 3N, I prefer this route now.

[woefuwabit]

I'm not convinced that game is likely to make opposite 10 hcp with partner. I'm testing this using simulation atm, results soon...

south is "xxx AKQxx Ax xxx"
deal::input smartstack north balanced hcp 10 10

sdev stats
sdev make7
sdev make8
sdev make9

source format/none

main {
  set trickswon [tricks north]
  stats add $trickswon
  if {$trickswon < 8} {make7 add 1}
  if {$trickswon == 8} {make8 add 1}
  if {$trickswon > 8} {make9 add 1}
  accept
}

deal_finished {
  puts "Count = [stats count]"
  puts "Average = [stats average]"
  puts "Deviation = [stats sdev]"
  puts "Makes 7 or less = [make7 count]"
  puts "Makes 8 exactly = [make8 count]"
  puts "Makes 9 or more = [make9 count]"
}

[gwnn]

I think here especially defenders will have a huge advantage from seeing all 4 hands, in particular the opening lead might be crucial.

[woefuwabit]

Results of 10000 trials:

Count = 10000
Average = 7.7423
Deviation = 0.9981935428737773
Makes 7 or less = 3576
Makes 8 exactly = 4457
Makes 9 or more = 1967

Non-vulnerable, Playing in 3NT vs Playing in 2NT
Average IMP per Board = (-2 x .3576) + (-5 x .4457) + (6 x .1967) = -1.7635

Vulnerable, Playing in 3NT vs Playing in 2NT
Average IMP per Board = (-3 x .3576) + (-6 x .4457) + (10 x .1967) = -1.78

Of course, this assumes perfect defense and declarer play... but it does look like it is a nett loss of IMPs bidding 3NT opposite 10 hcp partner instead of inviting and stopping at 2NT.

[P_Marlowe]

Invite, brilliant if I can stop in 2H, if p has min, even with trump support.
The HCP count is pretty good, if it comes to evaluating bal. hand, p has
a bal. hand, we have a bal. hand.
If we have 24-25, I want to bid game, otherwise not.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[maggieb]

If I played the kind of 3♣ puppet stayman where 3♦ doesn't say anything about 4 card majors, I would do that. Otherwise, just 3N.

[Gerben42]

I would bid 2♦, asking partner if he has a doubleton in a major. If he has a doubleton ♥, passing 2♥ is probably best. If he has three, I bid game.

[jjbrr]

Gerben42, on Oct 12 2009, 04:50 PM, said:

I would bid 2♦, asking partner if he has a doubleton in a major. If he has a doubleton ♥, passing 2♥ is probably best. If he has three, I bid game.

Elaborate? Which game? How does he bid with 33(43)? Do you really want to be in 4♥ opposite 3343? I'm skeptical that your convention is superior to simply transferring and bidding 3N, as jlall suggests. Doesn't he get the same information you do, but gives his partner a chance to use some judgment too?

[jdonn]

I would invite. But I feel like a wimp doing it. Maybe one day I'll learn.

[dake50]

Blast 3N. Close on pure hcp adding: 10+13=23; 12+13=25 with H coming home often.

[kayin801]

I would invite, and then go to game if partner had 4 hearts or a max. Then again, I play 10-12 as always "less than an opening hand" (for better or for worse) and so my partner and I will frequently have Qxx, xxx, Qxx, AQxx or WORSE for the opening ;P so my decision is based on that. If you're playing any 12 count balanced in there, including good ones, I would inquire about hearts and go.

What's going on at the other tables where they don't open 1NT? P-1H-1S-1NT-2NT-3NT?

[gwnn]

(this is almost entirely irrelevant:)

I kibbed this hand in a Cayne match. I do not claim to understand this pair's methods but I can give you the auction and the alerts. I was more interested in the evaluation than the system. The opening pair was favorable.

p-1NT-p-2♥*
x-xx*-p-p
2♠-p-p-p


2♥ was exactly invitational with 5-6 hearts
xx showed 'fitt he can bid again' (sic), was actually ATx Jxx Qxx Axxx. ♦K is onside so 3NT makes and 4♥ doesn't.

2♠ was down 1, lose 7 when the other table bid and made 3 no.