[nige1]

Jlall, on Dec 21 2009, 10:07 PM, said:

Clee gave me a good hand, I played it differently than declarer...and declarer was Balicki aka god. I am not sure which line is better, so figure I'd post it. You are in 6C on the fast HK lead, but you had a very slow auction. Auction was:
2C 2S
3C 3H
3S 4H
6C

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Agree with Xcurt and Gnasher (naturally). Play ♥A, ♣AKT. Then, assuming no other clues ...

Clee gave me a good hand, I played it differently than declarer...and declarer was Balicki aka god. I am not sure which line is better, so figure I'd post it. You are in 6C on the fast HK lead, but you had a very slow auction. Auction was:
2C 2S
3C 3H
3S 4H
6C

---

Clee gave me a good hand, I played it differently than declarer...and declarer was Balicki aka god. I am not sure which line is better, so figure I'd post it. You are in 6C on the fast HK lead, but you had a very slow auction. Auction was:
2C 2S
3C 3H
3S 4H
6C

---

[ceeb]

I was motivated to make some calculations by the fact that I guessed the worst line -- diamond ruff then trumps. Bottom line, the consensus views are right by a surprising margin.

Assumptions: trump spots are split 3-2 (♣Q not doubleton), lead from ♥KQ.
Simplifications: Calculated hundreds of distributions (considering "subsuits" such as ♦QJ), but ignoring several details such as ♦QJ doubleton or careful analysis when diamonds are 5-2.

Begin with a ♦ ruff then play ♣ succeeds about 37%.
Begin with a ♦ ruff then play ♠ succeeds about 46% (of which 10% comes from double shortness -- two black doubletons in the same hand)

Pooltuna & Balicki got that part right.

The squeeze is about 53% using Nigel's assumptions: RHO always exits ♦, LHO never, so Jlall et al are supported. Further I think my trump-loser assumption dis-favors the squeeze. Allowing for the guard squeeze and/or LHO's defensive choices is too complicated, but as a lower limit if the defense always plays a ♦ and we ignore our ♦10, the squeeze would be 43%.