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Simple judgement question

#21 User is offline   nigel_k 

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Posted 2010-January-10, 17:56

I would upgrade. The KJ of diamonds is a minus but I'd consider it close to an upgrade if the diamonds were Kx and having the jack instead makes it clear.

People may disagree about the particular hand but I really don't understand these people saying they don't upgrade (or downgrade). Point count is only a rough approximation of value and you just have to look at other factors if you want to bid accurately. Choosing not to even try to exercise judgment and following rigid rules instead is not an option IMO.
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#22 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2010-January-11, 13:26

Quote

People may disagree about the particular hand but I really don't understand these people saying they don't upgrade (or downgrade). Point count is only a rough approximation of value and you just have to look at other factors if you want to bid accurately. Choosing not to even try to exercise judgment and following rigid rules instead is not an option IMO.


The problem is we don't know what features are good and what are bad. Some simuls suggests that 5 card suits are overrated when it comes to playing in NT.
For example I run simple simul. Given hand opposite 7-8hcp balanced without 8card major fit, then I run this hand:
KQ9 A83 KJ8 KQ84 with same constraints. The 2nd hand makes 3nt significantly more often btu no one would dream of calling it anything more than "normal" 18hcp.
HCP seems to be very accurate for NT contracts much less so for suit contracts.
Choosing the best opening bid seems to be very difficult task which I believe no human can solve at the table with any reasonable accuracy.
My intuition say: 1NT because :
a)interfering over 1NT is hard, finding any possible game very hard
b)leading to strong hand is difficult
c)I would rather say I have balanced hand with 15-17hcp than bid clubs saying nothing usefl to partner and quite a lot to opponents (lead D, don't lead C)

I see too many +'s of opening 1NT and I don't believe I can accurately upgrade anything but the most obvious cases.
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#23 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-January-11, 16:25

1♣ - not close, even without the 10-9.

Similarly, I would open 1N without the ♥K.
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#24 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2010-January-11, 16:42

Phil, on Jan 11 2010, 05:25 PM, said:

Similarly, I would open 1N without the ♥K.

lol
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#25 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2010-January-11, 16:56

1♣.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

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#26 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-January-11, 16:58

Jlall, on Jan 11 2010, 05:42 PM, said:

Phil, on Jan 11 2010, 05:25 PM, said:

Similarly, I would open 1N without the ♥K.

lol

err ♠K :)
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#27 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2010-January-12, 02:06

I would open 2 NT with the King of Hearts and 1 club without.
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