[655321]

I don't feel strongly between inviting and game forcing.

A factor against GF with a heart fit is our relative club length; opponents potentially have a club ruff.

bluecalm, on May 17 2010, 09:12 PM, said:

Yeah, that's the problem with simuls.
I did 16-17 (hand which accept invite) with 2clubs A, K or 3+clubs at least Q or 4clubs JTxx+; no 5card majors, no 6 diamonds. The result was something like 32 or 36% for 3NT. I don't remember exactly.

I can repeat those with your assumptions if you are interested.

Wow, I completely disagree with these assumptions.

Why no 18 counts, why no 6 diamonds, and how many tricks do heart contracts make opposite 4 card hearts? Also many of the hands with Ax or Kx of clubs might be takeout doubles. Not saying it is obvious which constraints to set up, it isn't, but if you are going to say you think passing is clearcut (and you think this purely as a result of your sim) that you should be very confident your constraints are realistic.

Also, you didn't say, but I assume you also constrained West to have a 1♣ opener.

[nige1]

whereagles, on May 17 2010, 05:20 AM, said:

GF, on grounds that pard, even if minimum, will have an easy time locating the missing high cards.

Agree with WherEagles at IMPs but at matchpoints, I'm uncertain. Your ♠ holding is a worry but you have no wasted values in ♣. If you invite, you are more likely to be doubled.

[Hanoi5]

Stayman and invite, except when a heart fit is uncovered in which case I'll go for the red Major game.

[mike777]

mikeh, on May 17 2010, 06:56 PM, said:

I think that it is right to pass at mps against good defenders or in a generally strong field.

Passing probably asures us of a plus (unless they start with a spade through and run 5 or 6 spades on us). Inviting risks turning that plus into a minus more ways than it stands to turn it into a bigger plus.

We can find our hearts and maybe fail at the 3 or 4 level. We can play 2N and fail. We can play 3N and fail.

We can find hearts and make a partial that scores the same tricks as notrump.

Or we can find hearts, and outscore notrump, or bid and make a game.

Since my partners generally accept invitations aggressively, for me, the chances of turning a plus into a minus seem slightly higher than the chances of improving our score. But it is close. Give me as little as a couple of 10's and I'd bid.

And I'd bid in a weak field or against weak defenders.

How's that for hedging?

yes

[bluecalm]

Quote

Why no 18 counts, why no 6 diamonds, and how many tricks do heart contracts make opposite 4 card hearts? Also many of the hands with Ax or Kx of clubs might be takeout doubles. Not saying it is obvious which constraints to set up, it isn't, but if you are going to say you think passing is clearcut (and you think this purely as a result of your sim) that you should be very confident your constraints are realistic.

I don't think so only based on sim. Quite the contrary. I think the hand suck because of lack of intermediates and Kx of spades and is not worth an invite . This is why I didn't say anything about sim in my original post.I just made it because I always make a sim when it's possible to make at least some reasonable constraints. I find it fun. I am not that much into double dummy results.
If constraints are loose enough (ie. they allow for more hands than would bid 1NT but doesn't reject many which does) you can quickly develop a feeling about your decision by just browsing through those hands and seeing how good 3nt would be.

Back to double dummy results. This situation is difficult for sim because the reason you mentioned. It's very hard to define 1NT range (and even harder to define hadns which accept the invite). From my experience though it doesn't matter that much here if you allow for 6 diamonds here or not or what exact club holdings are possible. I didn't allow for 4 hearts becaue I wanted to see how many tricks we take in NT if we play in NT.

Anyway, I always say that if someone is interesting in sim results. Just post your constraints here. I will make it for you and post results

[Jlall]

I would invite all white at MP, like awm said I don't think 15 counts pass in this situation and there's no way I want to be in 15 opp 8 games in MP. Partner will pass my invites with most 16s and I can live with that at MP.

Really I don't see why I need to be in super skinny games at MP ever, we need 50 % odds and if it is really hard to play or they misdefend or whatever and I make 150 I think I'll still get a good score. I guess if I knew everyone in the field would blast, and I play much better than them, I should blast too, but in practice I have no idea if people will pass, invite, or bid game or if their partner will overcall 1N or if their LHO will open etc etc so I'm just going to try to play sound bridge and to me that is avoiding 23/random 24 HCP 3Ns here.

At imps it would be a totally different ball game since there's a big bonus for bidding and making those games, but to me there is not much bonus for it at MP.

The fact that partner can have 18 a lot and that he might play it better after the opening bid is just a factor for me to be happy inviting and not consider passing.