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Highly interesting lead problem

#1 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 10:33

7654
AT63
KJ53
9

1N-3N, your lead.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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#2 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 11:14

gwnn, on Jun 20 2010, 11:33 AM, said:

7654
AT63
KJ53
9

1N-3N, your lead.

I pick a major over ♦ because the opps made no effort to investigate a major fit. In spite of the school that says it is anti%age to under lead Axxx I lead an x of ♥ because the T is promotable plus the ♠ spots really vacuum quite well.
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#3 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 11:29

Spade.

Passive / aggressive. Like me :D
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#4 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 11:30

pooltuna, on Jun 20 2010, 12:14 PM, said:

plus the ♠ spots really vacuum quite well.

I'll keep my Dirt Devil, thanks.
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#5 User is offline   shyams 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 11:41

Low ♥

I like ♠6 as a lead; but I think a ♥ will be slightly better.
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#6 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 12:16

A spade, because:
- None of their suits are breaking
- A heart is quite likely to give away a ninth trick
- When a heart lead "works", it often won't set up enough tricks to beat the contract.
- If we set up a long spade, ♥A may provide an entry to it; if we set up a long heart, the spades won't provide an entry.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#7 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 12:21

♠6, because the other suits could be attacked succesfully in the middle of the hand. I think it stands out a little more at MP's, at IMP's it would be harder.

View Postwyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.


View Postrbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#8 User is offline   MarkDean 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 20:28

High spade for me too.
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#9 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 21:00

Spade
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#10 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 21:17

longest and strongest - spade B)
Wayne Burrows

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#11 User is offline   flytoox 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 23:03

Diamond for me
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#12 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-June-20, 23:06

I know people say you shouldn't lead from Axxx here but a heart really feels right to me. A spade just seems a long way from setting. A diamond could work but is too risky for my taste. It's true their suits aren't breaking, but given our spades and overall low spot cards they aren't all necessarily being a nuisance to declarer.
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#13 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2010-June-22, 16:17

spade was the winner. I was kibitzing Fred and Brad's team and the opening leader (Brian Platnick) lead a spade.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
      George Carlin
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#14 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-June-22, 17:19

I would lead a spade all day, nothing else even comes close.
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#15 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2010-June-22, 17:35

jdonn, on Jun 22 2010, 06:19 PM, said:

I would lead a spade all day, nothing else even comes close.

And that's why you are the fat cat!
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#16 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2010-June-22, 18:24

Spade. I will do simulation later. I am sure ♦ will come 3rd in it though.
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#17 User is offline   peachy 

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Posted 2010-June-22, 22:00

Never a heart from this holding! Major suit lead is normal so spade it is.
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#18 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-June-23, 00:35

I would have led a diamond because I'd suspect 3NT to be made on long clubs.

Obviously, I'd be wrong lol
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#19 User is offline   y66 

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Posted 2010-June-23, 05:37

Top spade.
If you lose all hope, you can always find it again -- Richard Ford in The Sportswriter
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#20 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2010-June-23, 05:47

Simulation (1000 hands):

S has 15-17balanced with possible 5M or 6m.
N has 9-14hcp 2-3♠, 2-3♥ without 8card minor or any 4-3-3-3 shape.

Number of hands given card is winning lead (at imps):

7♠ - 221
3♥ - 192
3♦ - 176
9♣ - 190

High score of 9♣ is certainly surprising but overall things are as expected:
♠ is best while ♦ sucks.
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