[whereagles]

Does this have a "solution"?

[Fluffy]

whereagles, on 2010-December-15, 05:24, said:

Does this have a "solution"?

I will partner ggwhiz, all we need is someone who partner's Ron and we have a game .

Total points, 1 cent a point for example?, my economy could afford a bit more, but not much.

[whereagles]

mtvesuvius, on 2010-December-10, 11:36, said:

So I ran a quick simulation, and it looks like X still is the winner. As we stated, when partner has <5 HCP or 4♠ and 3♥, bad things happen. There were a lot of hands where 4M makes or 4♣ is down a few when partner could not reopen.

I was curious and decided to make my own simulation (used BBO's Dealer script) and got this for pard's and LHO hands:

9.99751 average hcp
1.58276 average hcp in clubs (i.e. wastage)
3.79912 average nr of spades
3.46570 average nr of hearts
3.86894 average nr of diamonds
1.86624 average nr of clubs
0.39910 percentage of times pard has heart Q

3.46362 average nr of spades in LHO
3.79980 average nr of hearts in LHO

Generated 10000000 hands
Produced 84337 hands

Taking these statistics very literally, I would say pard's hand rates to be something like a 4342 hand with around 9-11 hcp. The conclusions I draw from pard's expectancy are

- Game is likely on paper. In practice, it is thin and may be facing some bad breaks.
- Double is likely to put you into a spade contract when hearts seem to be a bit better.
- Pass by pard to double will probably only work well if opps have no game on.

Seems to be a very, very close choice between pass, dbl and 4♥.

Pass: will work ok if there's no game on and will be fine if pard is inspired to reopen on a 10-count.
4♥: most likely game. May very well not make, though.
Dbl: fine if pard passes and we have no game on or if he bids hearts. Disaster otherwise.

Perhaps dbl is the riskiest action, as it's kind of a top-or-zero bid. In light of the evidence, I would probably bid 4♥ (instead of my previous dbl).

[Fluffy]

LHO has more hearts on average than hearts? you seem to have those percetages switched nuno. Obviously partner and LHO have the same average hand.

[whereagles]

yeah, I must have had the source file swapped.

[nige1]

icearif, on 2010-December-10, 10:44, said:

Imps - none vulnerable. You have ♠ KQJ ♥ AK763 ♦ J93 ♣ J8
RHO opens 4C and it's your turn...

IMO _X = 10, 4♥ = 9, _P = 8. Pre-empts work

[JLOGIC]

Guess I'm on a different planet but I would not even consider bidding and I thought I was aggro in these spots lol

[mfa1010]

Double. I prefer to just close my eyes and bid and hope for the best. Even with my eyes closed I would never finger with 4♥, that would be an awful bid.