mycroft, on 2010-December-22, 12:26, said:
I also don't believe that seeing the K drop is at all "doubtful", any more than seeing that West shows out on the first club is "doubtful". But there is little reason to believe that claimer wouldn't play in such a way as to make the losing finesse "normal" again.
I am not at all sure about this. Whereas a declarer who sees East drop the king of spades under the ace will not "normally" fail to notice that the jack of spades is therefore a winner, a declarer who claims on the basis that he has "twelve top tricks" may "normally" fail to notice that his fifth club isn't good even though West shows out on the first round of clubs.
But what has that to do with anything? Waffle about declarer finding out that he doesn't have five club tricks, so that repeating the spade finesse has become "normal play" even though declarer explicitly said that he would not do it, is... well, it is waffle. So is waffle to the effect that declarer, on finding out that he doesn't have five club tricks, is "luckily" forced by his statement not to repeat the spade finesse.
If you attempt to adjudicate doubtful claims on the basis of "what would have happened if declarer had played the hand out", you are bound (as this thread and many others amply show) to get involved in the kind of subjective reasoning about declarer's ability and state of mind, and about the "intent" of the Laws, that leads to complete absurdity. This is not entirely your fault, of course, for the Laws themselves are (in this respect) completely absurd; nevertheless, it is important to follow them if at all possible.
We do so thus:
Declarer has claimed. He should have made "a clear statement as to the order in which cards will be played" [Law 68C]. He hasn't - he has merely burbled something about not repeating the spade finesse because he has "twelve top tricks". The opponents (presumably) having objected to the claim, the Director "hears the opponents’ objections to the claim (but the Director’s considerations are not limited only to the opponents’ objections)". [Law 70B2].
Well, East objects on the grounds that declarer does not have "twelve top tricks". That is: East has spotted that declarer does not have five club tricks. The Director has doubtless spotted it also - but that is no reason for the Director to believe that
South would have spotted it
even if South had played the hand out. He didn't spot the possibility before he claimed - why should he be presumed to spot it if he continues to play?
Many, many times I have seen declarers (and defenders) try to cash a card that isn't a winner because the suit has broken worse than they imagined it could; I am sure that everyone here has experienced such cases. In my sleepier moments, which become more frequent as my years advance, I have made such plays myself. Of course, I should have claimed instead - or at least, I should have claimed if certain lunatic contributions to these forums are to be viewed as representing the current legal position.
These plays fall squarely into the category of "careless" or "inferior", and these plays are certainly "normal" within the meaning of the Act. And declarers prone to making them should not be saved from the consequences of their folly simply because the opponents or the Director can count better than they can. Frances is quite right - declarer should be presumed to try to cash his clubs, and to lose the fifth round of the suit to East.
But should he, as Frances suggests, be presumed to cash his side winners first? And if so, might not those side winners include the ace of spades? How can Frances justify her suggestion that declarer would in fact cash his red-suit tops
but not the spade ace before the fifth club? Now do you begin to see what happens if you follow the route of trying to decide how a "normal" declarer would in fact play the hand? And now do you begin to see why this route leads to complete absurdity? It simply must not be the case that two equally and highly competent referees, confronted with exactly the same set of facts, should give two diametrically opposite decisions both of which they can argue with equal force are consistent with the Laws. Yet this happens time and time again at bridge (and will continue to happen as long as the Laws attempt to remain based in some nebulous notion of "equity").
This is why the only rational Law relating to claims reads as follows:
Law 68C
A claim should be accompanied at once by a clear statement as to the order in which cards will be played, of the line of play or defence through which
the claimer proposes to win the tricks claimed. In adjudicating a claim, any cards not explicitly covered by this statement will be adjudged by the Director to be played in the legal order least advantageous to the claimer's side, and the score adjusted accordingly (in the absence of any statement, all cards belonging to the claimer's side are so treated).
It will be noted that once this suggestion is adopted, the Law that follows it will be the present Law 72. What is good for bridge is also good for the rain forest. Meanwhile, declarer is down at least three (two for being incompetent and one for wasting police time) - but since he probably doesn't exist, he probably won't mind.