[MrAce]

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1♦* = 0-7 any

IMPS

LEAD = ♣4, small from dummy and ♣T from South, u win in hand with Q. Now what ?

[dake50]

I want to know if I need to
force entry to dummy with H98 v HQ.
Out a diamond. See what we see.

[Fluffy]

agree with dake, diamond now to gather info

[MrAce]

If u play ♦ to dummy, North plays low, South takes 9 with T, cashes ♦ A and plays another [♦. I hope that helps

[Phil]

Not really close is it?

Spoiler

Play the ♥AK. The Q will fall 52% of the time. If the Q doesn't fall, I can fall back on ♠Q doubleton or singleton. In total - I'm around 60%.

Forcing the entry to dummy gives me a spade finesse + I can check for the ♠Q offside stiff. A smidge over 50.

I've played around with some variations when LHO ducks with Qxx if I lead a heart toward the board. If LHO ducks, not only have I jobbed him out of the heart winner, but I have also created the entry. However, for this to be superior to ♥AK, LHO would have to duck at least 5 out of 6 times. I don't think LHO is ever ducking with Qx.

Might be tougher without the ♠J. Of course, I might be missing something.

This ignores the opening bid. I may change my mind

[gnasher]

What we know from the opening bid and the play to trick one gives Phil's line an even bigger edge, I think. RHO apparently has five clubs rather than three or four. That makes it less likely that RHO has Qxx Qxx in the majors.

Finding out that opener has three diamonds provides more confirmation, if that is needed.

[nige1]

MrAce, on 2011-January-07, 15:46, said:

1♦* = 0-7 any IMPS LEAD = ♣4, small from dummy and ♣T from South, u win in hand with Q. Now what ?

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Phil, on 2011-January-07, 18:18, said:

Spoiler

Play the ♥AK. The Q will fall 52% of the time. If the Q doesn't fall, I can fall back on ♠Q doubleton or singleton. In total - I'm around 60%. Forcing the entry to dummy gives me a spade finesse + I can check for the ♠Q offside stiff. A smidge over 50. I've played around with some variations when LHO ducks with Qxx if I lead a heart toward the board. If LHO ducks, not only have I jobbed him out of the heart winner, but I have also created the entry. However, for this to be superior to ♥AK, LHO would have to duck at least 5 out of 6 times. I don't think LHO is ever ducking with Qx.

Spoiler

In Phil's line, after ♣Q, ♥AK, if LHO turns up with ♥Qxx(x), then he's unlikely to have much else. If you exit in ♥, LHO may misdefend by continuing with another "safe" ♣. Now if you feel that RHO has the guarded ♠Q, you can run trumps for a squeeze-strip. The squeeze-strip also works if RHO has the guarded ♠Q if he fails to cash two diamonds before exiting. In this case you can still succeed even if the top diamonds are split.

Pivot strip squeeze, based on the original deal.
♠ are trumps.
South to make eleven tricks on a ♥ lead
(or any non-♣ lead).
On a ♠ lead, You can swap dummy's ♥Q with RHO's ♥T and the squeeze still works. Hugh Kelsey categorised seemingly inaccessible threats like ♥Q as being on the moon.
The ♣T is an example of what I call a pivot: If you swap it for a lower card, then ten tricks are the limit.
If you have a trump loser, a similar squeeze may still succeed if defenders attempt to cash winners in the wrong order.

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[ceeb]

Re Phil's analysis the postscript about considering the opening bid seems relevant. 60% for the combined chance of dropping a major suit queen seems about right, but the probability of winning a ♠Q finesse through the opening bidder is similar and there are additional indications from trick 1: leading ♣4 from ♣9x(x)4 may counterindicate outside honors; RHO ducking trick one is less likely with both ♦AK and hence suggests ♠Q more strongly.

But rather than the technical chance via cashing aces and kings I like Nigel's play: Collect 52% equity by cashing top trumps, then instead of simply spade drop try for an endplay via (1) ♠Q with RHO, (2) defenders fail to cash RHO's ♦ top(s), (3) we read the distribution.

But what is the ♠ finesse line really worth? If you would choose it, surely exploring in ♦ per dake is nearly cost-free.

MrAce, on 2011-January-07, 17:24, said:

If u play ♦ to dummy, North plays low, South takes 9 with T, cashes ♦ A and plays another ♦. I hope that helps

It helps a lot -- the very weak indication from trick 1 play that RHO hasn't got ♦AK, ♣A has turned into a strong appearance that RHO had ♦A10x. (Are these birds clever enough to defend this way when RHO holds ♦AK10x ♣AJ108x rather than trying the ♣A instead of the small ♦? By the way why not ♣A in any case? What does RHO know from the opening lead?) Therefore the opening bid seems to place the ♠Q onside.

Of course it was a little lucky to get such telling information from the diamond suit. There are imponderables but it's maybe a 1/3 chance that LHO has a diamond top and a 1/4 chance that we learn about it. Assuming you take 60% via cashing tricks when the ♦ plays aren't informative and nearly 100% by ♠ finesse the 1/4 of the time like the actual hand, the net is 60%(3/4) + 1/4 = 85%. If you believe that estimate it's hard to beat.

[MrAce]

ceeb, on 2011-January-08, 11:29, said:

(Are these birds clever enough to defend this way when RHO holds ♦AK10x ♣AJ108x rather than trying the ♣A instead of the small ♦?

Ummm, i dunno if they are that good or not, but LHO is Lorenzo Lauria and RHO was Afredo Versace who replaced JEC.