[kgr]

IMP's

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LHO leads ♥4 (3th/5th). You win ♥A in dummy and RHO plays an encouraging ♥2.
What is best play on this hand?
- Play 3 rounds 3♦ followed by ruffing a ♣
- Start with playing ♠ to the King

[BunnyGo]

No matter what, you need to be able to pick up diamonds. I don't think this affects the choice of play. For pulling trump and playing on clubs to be correct we need the Queen to come down in at most three rounds. For leading a spade to be correct (either to K or J...I'd generally play the J if RHO ducks) you need a parley: You can expect a diamond return. Then you need to be able to ruff two spades, pull trump and hope that you high spade sets up or there is a squeeze.

The odds of the first line are 68% with any 3-2 club split and another 4% (or so) that the Q is stiff.

The odds sf the second are 50% that you win your finesse (maybe a bit more if you can count on the A to usually go up so you get an extra chance since RHO playing low uses up a vacant space in LHO's hand for the Q) plus some odds that you can ruff out the remaining high spade or that the high spade is with the long clubs.

Seems pretty close to me, but it sounds like it is about (after forgetting that we need 3-2 diamonds in both cases) 72% to 75% (maybe a little less) so I guess leading the spade is slightly better, but it's so close and I'm doing this in my head that I could easily be wrong.

[whereagles]

Pull two trumps and play 3 rounds of clubs. Then guess right

[kgr]

BunnyGo, on 2011-October-02, 06:28, said:

Seems pretty close to me, but it sounds like it is about (after forgetting that we need 3-2 diamonds in both cases) 72% to 75% (maybe a little less) so I guess leading the spade is slightly better, but it's so close and I'm doing this in my head that I could easily be wrong.

I played this hand against Jack program and 2nd tick analysis shows that ♠-play is slightly better.
(and I think that Jack doesn't take into account the psychology of the ♠-Ace play).

[AlexJonson]

Maybe it's late, but I don't see why a spade is a good idea, in fact it seems a really bad idea.

[gszes]

some things the % counters missed that
sway the best LOP in favor of playing
for 3/2 clubs (and more)

1. We assume E is not void in clubs (no x)

2. We assume trumps are 3/2

these two assumptions mean we can run our
suit calculation using 9 spaces with RHO
(shown 1 heart has to have 1 club and at
least 2 dia) and 10 spaces with LHO.
This change alone brings the 3/2 break %to
69.66

The chances of the singleton Q falling from
either hand is another 5.42%

The singleton 9 in LHO hands is 2.17
This is significant because then we can do
a ruffing finesse against the Q in RHO

adding all of these up you get 77% and change
PLUS a small factor since the 2% chance RHO is
void in clubs is non existent adding another
rough 1.5% meaning trying to play for clubs
3/2 or stiff Q or stiff 9 with LHO adds up
to a whopping 78.5%.

The less empty spaces there are the more
likely side suit breaks will be normal
(given no other information)

so win trick 1 draw 3 rounds of trumps and
proudly play the club K followed by a club
to the A and if this doesnt work at least
you know not to buy a lottery ticket that day.

Another side benefit of playing for the 3/2
break is that when the suit does break 3/2
you have a decent chance at making 7.

One more thing--if you play a spade you should
rightfully fear a heart return not a trump
because that will stop you from making on
most hands where clubs do break 3/2.