JLOGIC, on 2011-October-12, 21:33, said:
It's like one in 10 million probably.
I would query your logic, which is similar to the pronouncements of Sir Roy Meadow in the UK on the various cot-deaths caused by SIDS (Sudden instant death syndrome - nothing to with Stayman in doubt bids). His evidence caused the convinction of two or three innocent mothers, and the judge in one case, quoting his statistics, said that the chance of two cot-deaths in the same family in the same year was over a million to one. The true figure is around 61% that somewhere in the UK there will be two cot deaths in the same family in the same year, even though the chance of a cot-death at all in any year for any infant is around 1 in 10,000.
Take this hand. 7-3-2-1 hands are around 1.9%, the most common distribution with a seven-card suit. And "How Many Spades?" would hardly be appropriate for a 4-3-3-3 hand, so the hand started - arising from discussion of whether a psyche was fielded - in another thread in the Laws forum, entitled Is there a joker?. That was stated to be a constructed hand, made up for the purpose of deciding whether everyone could have their bid. It was put on the forum because people argued, and persuaded me, that it was a 3S opener. Rainer commented that he would rather have two aces than all those soft values. He would hardly say "I would rather have KJ in both suits than those soft values, so the "creation" of a similar hand arose from a natural comment. No psychic element. It was completely normal that this should remind me of the other hand; indeed I think I would have a sieve-like memory if I did not recall it. None of the hands was particularly abnormal. And the fact that the king and queen of spades were singleton was more likely than not. Around 52%. So, given that the theme of the thread was what to open when holding seven spades, it was not particularly unlikely that someone would say that they preferred aces to the soft values that were shown.
But I do think I attract unlikely hands. I played a handful of times with a strong player Glyn Liggins. On one occasion he asked me how to play a 5NT opener. I replied "One loser hand, void in both majors". That evening, I picked up such a hand. A lady doubled 7C and was thinking what to lead. "Neither of your aces is cashing, ma'am", he correctly remarked. A year later, I picked up void void AKJxxx AKQxxxx, third in hand, but partner opened 6S as dealer with AKQxxxxxx none Qxxx none. The person in the pass-out seat with J109x AKxxxxxxx none none had to bid 7H to make, rather than his actual choice of Double. This was a teams-of-eight event, so I can get loads of witnesses. It was hand-dealt at the table. Lo and behold a year later, two friends Fegarty and Freake had void void AKQxxxx KQJxxx and this time played quietly in a cold 6C. The coincidence of three 5NT openers is certainly unlikely. So much so that you no doubt think I have made it up, as I have a habit of doing. But Liggins, Fegarty and Freake could all confirm the facts.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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