[bluejak]

StevenG, on 2012-March-01, 03:05, said:

This argument guarantees that someone good enough to find the best line is not given equity.

No, it guarantees he is given equity. You want him to be given a bonus.

[StevenG]

bluejak, on 2012-March-12, 10:58, said:

No, it guarantees he is given equity. You want him to be given a bonus.

No, that is not the case.

If you say "n tricks" x% of the time, and "n-1 tricks" (100-x)% of the time, then x% of the time he gets less than he deserves and (100-x)% of the time he gets a bonus.

What, anyway, do you mean by probabilities in this situation? Do you mean that players are random number generators, and when faced with a decision will mentally flip a coin, and come up the "n tricks" line x% of the time at random? Or do you mean that players each have their own little ways of guessing, and that x% will come up with the "n tricks" line every time, and the rest the "n-1 tricks" line every time? Or somewhere in the middle?

Whatever, on this hand, the "n tricks" players automatically lose out from a weighted score.

[aguahombre]

Steven's points are from a UK player subject to the practice at this time. Mine were from over here, where we don't have weighting.

Apparently it isn't that easy where it is already in force and the TD gives weights to less than the best percentage lines (which may have scored better or worse).

[mjj29]

StevenG, on 2012-March-12, 11:21, said:

No, that is not the case.

If you say "n tricks" x% of the time, and "n-1 tricks" (100-x)% of the time, then x% of the time he gets less than he deserves and (100-x)% of the time he gets a bonus.

What, anyway, do you mean by probabilities in this situation? Do you mean that players are random number generators, and when faced with a decision will mentally flip a coin, and come up the "n tricks" line x% of the time at random? Or do you mean that players each have their own little ways of guessing, and that x% will come up with the "n tricks" line every time, and the rest the "n-1 tricks" line every time? Or somewhere in the middle?

Whatever, on this hand, the "n tricks" players automatically lose out from a weighted score.

The point is that you can't tell whether this is a "n tricks" player or an "n-1 tricks" player, so you weight based on that likelihood. Or, there may just be two equally plausible lines - if you have AJxx facing KTxx, how often do you pick up the queen? What you're saying is "I think that on average if you give this to 100 similar players, probably 65 of them will get it right at the table". How you judge the standard of the player will obviously affect your weightings, but something has to be pretty obvious (and often it is obvious and you don't have to weight) for you to assume that this player will make it 100% of the time.

Sure, if this person would always get it right, then they will be worse off (although, typically the difference in practice is minimal) - but really, anyone who thinks they _always_ get it right in situations where the TD is giving a weighting is probably applying a fair amount of hindsight. If they disagree with the TD they can always appeal and then they get to convince 3 of their peers that they would always get it right instead.