[Furlan]

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IMPs. Carding agreements are simply "UDCA", no further discussion.

♣Q, 5, 2, 8
Now what and why?

[MrAce]

I think our chances to defeat this 3 NT depends on what pd holds. He cant have much. From bidding he is also known to hold at least 4-4 majors and in order for us to have a chance he must have 2♣ + 3♦.

We are hoping pd to hold something like

Kxxx
Jxxx
T9x
xx

or

Jxxx
Jxxx
T9x
xx

or

Jxxx
xxxx
Qxx
xx

Basically, declarer ducking the 1st ♣ is an indicator that he cant see 9th trick without having to concede a trick to defense and this is most likely the ♦ suit. Pd has at most ♠ K (if he has Ace we defeat this anyway, we dont have to play the suit)

So declarer is probably

AKx
xxx
QJxx
Kxx

without guessing the ♠J finesse he has 3♠+2♥ and if he took the first ♣ he was dead anyway, and when ducked now he cant come to 9 tricks if we just exit with ♥ even if he manages to make 3♦ tricks without letting our pd to hold the hand. He has to let you hold 1 time in both red suits thats 2 tricks for defense + 1st ♣ trick and u wait with AQ ♣ all day long after that.

[Fluffy]

playing udca partner can be singleton of have ♣Kx2. playing him for ♣K its a bit odd on the bidding, so singleton is the most likelly.

switching is the best thing we can do, and the best suit we can switch to is hearts, with ♥K in case declarer has singleton ♥J

[phil_20686]

♥k looks right to me.

[rhm]

MrAce, on 2012-April-17, 23:59, said:

...
Basically, declarer ducking the 1st ♣ is an indicator that he cant see 9th trick without having to concede a trick to defense and this is most likely the ♦ suit. Pd has at most ♠ K (if he has Ace we defeat this anyway, we dont have to play the suit)

So declarer is probably

AKx
xxx
QJxx
Kxx

without guessing the ♠J finesse he has 3♠+2♥ and if he took the first ♣ he was dead anyway, and when ducked now he cant come to 9 tricks if we just exit with ♥ even if he manages to make 3♦ tricks without letting our pd to hold the hand. He has to let you hold 1 time in both red suits thats 2 tricks for defense + 1st ♣ trick and u wait with AQ ♣ all day long after that.

A good effort but not quite true against a competent declarer, who knows that he can make the contract only if you hold both red kings.
He will take the heart finesse, come to hand with a spade to play another heart from hand (letting your heart king hold whenever you play it), finish the hearts, then test the spades from the top and finally play ♦A, diamond to endplay you in clubs.

Rainer Herrmann

[rhm]

I do not think that a good declarer would bid that way with 3=3=4=3, preferring the money from 3♣ doubled instead.
It is hard to come up with a layout where the defense matters unless partner has a spade entry.
The best I can come up with is declarer having

♠AJ
♥xxx
♦QTxxx
♣K98

It is not immediately obvious, but an attack on declarer's entries by a switch to the ♠8 (of course not covered by partner) and careful defense thereafter beats the contract.
Declarer has in deed only 8 tricks and can not end-play West, if West unblocks the ♥king precisely on the second round, assuming hearts are played from hand, so that declarer has to use up his entries from hand.
Declarer must let the ♥K hold to keep East out. If the ♦K still lives (threatening an end-play), you can continue with ♣A and another, because declarer has used up his spade entries and the ♠K will have been established as a fifth trick for the defense.
More likely declarer will play first on diamonds before playing the second round of hearts, but then you cannot get end-played anymore if you unblock the ♥K on the second round and if you kept your third heart when declarer ran diamonds. Declarer has only 8 tricks.

Rainer Herrmann

[MrAce]

rhm, on 2012-April-18, 05:27, said:

I do not think that a good declarer would bid that way with 3=3=4=3, preferring the money from 3♣ doubled instead.
It is hard to come up with a layout where the defense matters unless partner has a spade entry.
The best I can come up with is declarer having

♠AJ
♥xxx
♦QTxxx
♣K98

It is not immediately obvious, but an attack on declarer's entries by a switch to the ♠8 (of course not covered by partner) and careful defense thereafter beats the contract.
Declarer has in deed only 8 tricks and can not end-play West, if West unblocks the ♥king precisely on the second round, assuming hearts are played from hand, so that declarer has to use up his entries from hand.
Declarer must let the ♥K hold to keep East out. If the ♦K still lives (threatening an end-play), you can continue with ♣A and another, because declarer has used up his spade entries and the ♠K will have been established as a fifth trick for the defense.
More likely declarer will play first on diamonds before playing the second round of hearts, but then you cannot get end-played anymore if you unblock the ♥K on the second round and if you kept your third heart when declarer ran diamonds. Declarer has only 8 tricks.

Rainer Herrmann

Yes, thats much better imo. I guess i predicted hands for declarer that has more strength than 10 hcp, but this one you suggested is very reasonable to start with 2♦ and bid 3 NT.