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Awkward Lead Choice choose your poison

#1 User is offline   Phil352 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:05

Playing matchpoints against 2 of the best players in the club last night:



2NT showed both minors. What would you choose to lead? I'll reveal my choice afterwards although the full hand isn't particularly relevant.
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#2 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:22

Q. If declarer does plan to ruff some clubs then exposing the diamond position may not matter.
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#3 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 07:28

Might the 8 be better? I think pounding away at trumps is probably right. But, I'll lead the Eight.
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#4 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 08:57

View PostTimG, on 2012-August-29, 07:28, said:

Might the 8 be better? I think pounding away at trumps is probably right. But, I'll lead the Eight.


+1. LHO came in R/W missing the QJ.

Declarer will not want to give up the tempo for three trump plays.
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#5 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 09:32

I nearly led the 8, but did not want to give declarer a possible entry that could let him lead up to the clubs.
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#6 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 09:58

View PostPhil, on 2012-August-29, 08:57, said:

+1. LHO came in R/W missing the QJ.


This might be a sign not to lead trumps at all. Dummy's clubs are likely to be very good and it looks like they are breaking. I would prefer to play for a force, if only I knew which major to lead.
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#7 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 10:53

View Postquiddity, on 2012-August-29, 09:58, said:

This might be a sign not to lead trumps at all. Dummy's clubs are likely to be very good and it looks like they are breaking. I would prefer to play for a force, if only I knew which major to lead.


If I held two, or four trumps, a force would have a lot more appeal. With three, their trump are breaking, but if partner has some clubs (not unlikely), and declarer has short clubs (also not unlikely), trump need to be led asap.
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#8 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 11:43

Let's take a look, heart ace.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

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#9 User is offline   jallerton 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 13:36

View Postpaulg, on 2012-August-29, 09:32, said:

I nearly led the 8, but did not want to give declarer a possible entry that could let him lead up to the clubs.


If declarer has 10xx with AK9xx in dummy, do you expect him to play low fom dummy at trick 1?

Quote

Let's take a look, heart ace.


What's the hurry? You'll get to see dummy anyway.
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#10 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 16:24

View Postpaulg, on 2012-August-29, 09:32, said:

I nearly led the 8, but did not want to give declarer a possible entry that could let him lead up to the clubs.

View Postjallerton, on 2012-August-29, 13:36, said:

If declarer has 10xx with AK9xx in dummy, do you expect him to play low from dummy at trick 1?


Perhaps I'm overthinking this (make a change!), but declarer might be desperate to get to his hand and without an immediate re-entry to dummy he may have little choice (in that it does not cost). On the other hand I would be pretty annoyed if it crashed a diamond honour in partner's hand (if he has the ten, for example). I expect by tomorrow I'll agree with the eight :)
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#11 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2012-August-29, 16:49

I doubt you can beat this if they get the clubs going. Axx is a yucky holding. But there is a chance that I can force dummy in the majors enough to cut him off from the clubs. The most likely lead to do this is a low heart. But is very risky at MP.
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#12 User is offline   lowerline 

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Posted 2012-August-30, 03:06

View PostPhil352, on 2012-August-29, 07:05, said:

Playing matchpoints against 2 of the best players in the club last night:



2NT showed both minors. What would you choose to lead? I'll reveal my choice afterwards although the full hand isn't particularly relevant.


Too risky to lead a major. J

Steven
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