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Guess the card ... or play the hand

#1 User is online   paulg 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 05:52



The lead is the ♠4 (4th best from good suits, highest from bad suits). Update - East plays the queen of spades to trick one.

What is your plan?

Spoiler



And the topic title? This hand is from the semifinal of the Vanderbilt, so which card do you think Peter Fredin played at trick two?
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#2 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 07:30

♦10?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#3 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 10:13

♥T which held the trick?
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#4 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 10:21

Errrrrr. Didn't he get the 7♣ lead?
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#5 User is online   paulg 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 10:53

View PostPhilKing, on 2013-April-11, 10:21, said:

Errrrrr. Didn't he get the 7♣ lead?

Yes, he did get a club lead which could give him some scope for misdirection since he has that suit covered. But the player who had the hand on Monday asked me for the best line given the lead she received.
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#6 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 14:26

Im guessing the dia T---this is mainly because declarer intends to stake
their play on the club suit trying for 4c 2h 2s 1d. The dia T play is a what
the heck why not play that --if allowed to hold- gives us our 9th trick w/o
having to worry about where the club K is.

The hand is such that the opps winning and continuing diamonds is unlikely
to keep us from winning 8 or 9 tricks and maybe just maybe will allow us to
win 9 or 10 why not I say.
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#7 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 14:29

View Postpaulg, on 2013-April-11, 10:53, said:

Yes, he did get a club lead which could give him some scope for misdirection since he has that suit covered. But the player who had the hand on Monday asked me for the best line given the lead she received.


So the answer is Fredin didn't lead anything, because he wasn't even there. And if he had been there, he - or was it it she? - got a different lead. Now I'm confused.
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#8 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2013-April-11, 16:51

View Postpaulg, on 2013-April-11, 05:52, said:

What is your plan?

My plan is to take the club finesse. And no I am not doing anything fancy since I don't want to go down extra tricks when it's off.
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#9 User is online   paulg 

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Posted 2013-April-12, 01:42

In St Louis, Fredin got a club (not spade) lead and led the ten of diamonds at trick two. Although this looked like misdirection to me initially, I think the club lead has shown that this suit is 4-1 and ducking a couple of diamonds is preparation for a squeeze, with the advantage that the defence might get over-active in a major - the fact that the lead was a club rather than a diamond is a clue that the diamonds might be 5-3.

Best defence will always beat the contract but Bilde took his king of clubs too early and permitted a second entry to dummy whilst removing his partner's heart honour. Chip Martel also made three notrump in the other semifinal, but a semi-psychic one spade opener meant that the spade lead was easily read as third from an honour and you can establish the ten of spades (at least I presume this happened as the operator lost the play).

All of which shows that this is an easier hand to play than defend. When I used this hand in a practice match it was impossible to tell that the lead is from Jxx and so the best line was unclear. Staking everything on the club finesse seems normal but destroys most squeeze chances.

You can see the hand and Fredin's play in the second board at http://www.bridgebas...h.php?id=27408.
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