[Mbodell]

You are unfavorable at IMPs, and if it matters, your opponents rate to be not that good (you've "found your level" at the 'daylight' swiss).

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What's the best line on the ♦K lead [spades split 2-2 when you pull them]?

[Fluffy]

double finesse is much better than banging down the ace (stiff ♥KJ versus 3 doubletons Hx), you can afford to play 2 rounds of trumps, but if they were 3-1 you could not play a third round yet since you might need 3 entries to dummy if hearts are ♥J-♥K852.

Spoiler

Now let's look for the extras, ♦A, ♦ ruff, ♠A, ♦ ruff, ♣A, ♣ruff, ♠K, and ♣K, this elimiantes all diamonds and 3 rounds of clubs, giving the extra chance of west having ♥KJ and less than 4 clubs since he will become endplayed.

[Antrax]

Fluffy, what happens if

Spoiler

W wins the heart cheaply and plays the fourth club?

[CamHenry]

Antrax, on 2013-August-08, 02:07, said:

Fluffy, what happens if

Spoiler

W wins the heart cheaply and plays the fourth club?

I think

Spoiler

you ruff in hand, giving ♠A ♥xx facing ♥AQT. You then have to lead the ♥A, hoping for LHO to have started with ♥KJ or Jxx.

[johnu]

Spoiler

I would play ♦A, ruff a diamond, trump to dummy, ruff a diamond, trump, ♣AK and run the 9 of hearts. If west has only 2 clubs, he will be end played, ie 2-4-5-2, 2-3-6-2, 2-2-7-2 and you can pick up ♥KJ(x) offside since you can pitch a heart, ruff in hand, ♥A and ruff a heart, and you still have a trump to get back to the good heart. Ruffing a third club leaves you with a trump in each hand so if west plays a 4th club after winning the ♥jack (ie 2-1-6-4) you are going down since you can't pick up king 4th with east. If west plays a diamond which he should play with ♥KJ doubleton whether or not he has a 4th club, you can ruff in dummy, but you need to guess whether to finesse or play for the drop, so the extra club elimination doesn't gain anything and can lose to the partial club elimination

[mikeh]

We can decide to play RHO for a heart honour and take the double finesse (leading low from dummy the first time in case the J pops on your right, since if LHO has 4 hearts, trump won't be breaking 2-2 so we are at risk of losing 2 tricks to K8xx offside).

That seems very high odds to me.

Can we do better?

Win the diamond, ruff a diamond. Cross in clubs and ruff a diamond. Cross in trump to ruff a club high. Cross in trump, noting the 2-2 break, and lay down the club K and lead a heart up to the 10.

So long as trump are 2-2, this line seems superior to the double heart hook. LHO is endplayed whenever he holds 2=2=6=3 shape regardless of his heart holding, and also when he holds both heart cards and is 2=4=6=1/2=3=6=2.

Can we be embarrassed if trump are not splitting?

If he has 1=3=6=3, for example, he is still endplayed but does the ruff-sluff hurt him? No, but it doesn't put us in any different position than earlier...we ruff the diamond on the board and take a heart hook, assuming he won the J the first time...we're back to the double hook.

If he has 1=2=6=4, he'll exit a club, forcing us to ruff. Now we have no entry to dummy to draw the last trump. We have to be able to cash 2 hearts, and then the spade J in dummy is the 12th trick. We lose to his being Jx in hearts, when the double hook prevails, but win when he is KJ, which seems more consistent with his overcall.

So I take the elimination line.

Edit: I looked at Fluffy's spoiler and see he already said all of this, more succintly

[Antrax]

succinctly isn't necessarily better

[johnu]

Ruffing 2 diamonds and a club in declarer's hand doesn't really gain anything against a mildly decent west since he will return a club if possible with jack singleton or doubleton in hearts, or a diamond where you can guess to double finesse or play to drop ♥KJ offsides. Not ruffing a club truly results in a endplay if west has a doubleton club.

[rhm]

johnu, on 2013-August-08, 23:53, said:

Ruffing 2 diamonds and a club in declarer's hand doesn't really gain anything against a mildly decent west since he will return a club if possible with jack singleton or doubleton in hearts, or a diamond where you can guess to double finesse or play to drop ♥KJ offsides. Not ruffing a club truly results in a endplay if west has a doubleton club.

Why can't West not have ♠xx ♥KJx ♦KQJxx ♣Qxx or ♠xx ♥KJ ♦KQJxxx ♣Qxx ?

Of course playing for the end-play might loose when West has ♠xx ♥J ♦KQJxxx ♣Qxxx but this is less likely.

Rainer Herrmann

[johnu]

If west has ♥KJx and 3 clubs, you have no play to make unless west blunders and plays back a heart after winning the jack no matter what line you take. If west has ♥KJ only and 3+ clubs, I'm going to try to drop the king on the next heart play. I think I would play west for the king of hearts because of the 2♦ overcall. Without the king of hearts, ie 2-1-6-4 2-2-6-3, I think west would have bid 3♦ as a weak jump overcall.

[jddons]

Mbodel, what were the other hands? It took me a while to understand johnu's point. As I understand it, if S eliminates diamonds and ruffs 3 clubs before hooking the heart T, if W wins J, even if he has only 3 clubs he can get off play with a diamond. then if S discards a heart in dummy and ruffs in hand with the last trump, although there is no immediate H loser, the suit is not set up. hence S needs to find that HK was originally doubleton. Thus ruffing the third club has not improved chances over an initial double heart finesse (assuming best defence). An interesting hand.

[gszes]

mikeh, on 2013-August-08, 15:53, said:

Can we do better?
Win the diamond, ruff a diamond. Cross in clubs and ruff a diamond. Cross in trump to ruff a club high. Cross in trump, noting the 2-2 break, and lay down the club K and lead a heart up to the 10.
So long as trump are 2-2, this line seems superior to the double heart hook. LHO is endplayed whenever he holds 2=2=6=3 shape regardless of his heart holding, and also when he holds both heart cards and is 2=4=6=1/2=3=6=2.

sorry for the partial quote because this is interesting and I like the idea of the above LOP
trick 1 dia ace
trick 2 ruff dia
trick 3 club ace
trick 4 ruff dia
trick 5 trump to K
trick 6 ruff club (with T)
trick 7 trump to A (discovering 22 trump break)
trick 8 club K
trick 9 heart 9 beginning of double hook or end play
we have reduced our holdings to

J
xx
void
x

Q
AQT
void
void

note that if the heart loses to the J lho is not endplayed
they can safely exit a dia giving us a ruff/sluff and we will
still need to guess how to play the hearts (finesse or drop)

while i like the concept I am unconvinced it is better than
a straight double hook.IMO we should play for a double hook
using a partial club elimination method which starts very much
like the above lop--

trick 1 dia A
trick 2 ruff dia
trick 3 trump to K
trick 4 dia ruff
trick 5 trump to A discovering 22 split
trick 6 club A
trick 7 club K (eliminating all holdings where lho has <3 clubs)
trick 8 9 of hearts beginning double hook or hopefully endplay)

we are reduced to

J
xx
void
xx

QT
AQT
void
void

the difference between this position and the one above is that lho cannot
afford to lead a dia for a ruff/sluff we pitch the heart from dummy and ruff in hand
play heart A and a heart ruff and still have a trump to get back to the last heart

This line would lose only to Kxxx in rho (if in lho we had a ruffing finesse available).
If lho has a 3rd club we would bang down the heart A hoping lho began life with
2263 (KJ doubleton of heqarts) and this lop does not run the (tiny) risk of any club
ruff if lho happens to be void.

If at trick 5 we discover trumps are breaking 31 we can draw the last trump leaving the
lead in dummy and begin the double hook in hearts immediately because we would
still have the club A as the extra entry needed for the 2nd finesse.

[Mbodell]

At the table I eliminated diamonds, partially eliminated clubs cashed the heart A and ran the heart 9. I was playing for KJ offside willing to lose to Jx offside and Kxx onside with the K ducked twice (remember the opponents were likely not that good). I don't think my at the table line is as good as the double finesse, but it is hard to tell how to weight the bidding and known hcp with the likelihood the K is offside.

As it happened, nearly any line worked as the hearts split KJx onside! So the overcaller had KQJxxx of diamonds and Qxx of clubs, xx of spades and xx of hearts. So I made 12 tricks in 6S while at the other table they made 13 tricks in 4S.