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1m opening length probabilities

#21 User is offline   TylerE 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 13:16

Probabilties for the following setup?

1 = 11-13 Bal (No 5M) or 3+
1 = 17-18 (Semi)Bal (5M or 6M322 possible) or 3+
1M = 11-13 5+M or 11-21 5+M unbalanced
1N = 14-16
2 = 19-21 Bal or Any GF+

Minor suit opened might be distorted for range considerations if unwilling to rebid longer minor (e.g. 1 could be on 2+5 bad if minimum, intending to rebid 1N)
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#22 User is offline   zenko 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 13:22

Well the answer is way more complex than that. Your chance of having long clubs when opening 1 club (standard, or standardish) decreases dramatically with each seat. Or in another words if you open 1 club in 1st seat there is a fair chance you actually have real club suit. On 4th seat if you open 1 club you will rarely have 5+ clubs. I actually kept stats on that for a while, in a sample of 3000+ hands 4th seat "real" 1 club opening had less than 1 in 10 occurrence, rest being some kind of balanced hands with 4 or 3 clubs. The cause for that is pretty logical, if you have long clubs most of the time somebody else has long suit too and will usually find a reason to open it in front of you.
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#23 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2014-February-19, 14:09

 aguahombre, on 2014-February-19, 12:27, said:

If that translates to bidding 3C after

1C (2S) ? with only three of them......wow.


With only 3 clubs don't you usually have another bid, like double or something. It's not like every hand with only 3 clubs should be bidding 3.
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#24 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-February-20, 07:32

 Zelandakh, on 2014-February-07, 07:12, said:

(...) they open 1 with 4432 and a 1 opening promises 4.


that is teh tool of teh Devil!!!!
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#25 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-February-20, 08:32

 whereagles, on 2014-February-20, 07:32, said:

that is teh tool of teh Devil!!!!

That is probably why they call it Standard American.
(-: Zel :-)
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