[ahydra]

♠AK
♥AK109x
♦AKQ
♣Axx

IMPs. You're NV, they're vul. Partner deals and passes. What's your plan here if RHO opens a) 3S, b) 4S?

If you double, in each case LHO passes, partner bids the lowest sufficient number of clubs, RHO passes.

ahydra

[ArtK78]

Over a 4♠ opening, and a 5♣ bid by partner after your double:

How good are you at guessing? I am going to try 6NT. That will give me some small additional chance of success if it turns out that partner's club suit is inadequate for slam. For example, suppose partner has:

x Qx Jxxx Qxxxxx

Depending on how the clubs lie, 6♣ could be hopeless but 6NT could have play. However, if the club suit lies favorably so that 6♣ makes, 6NT will also make.

I would guess that almost all hands that make 6♣ will also make 6NT, but that there are some hands that will fail in 6♣ but will still have play for 6NT. About the only time that is not true is when partner has long clubs and nothing else, and you have a club loser that the opps can hold up to deny you access to the club suit if you play in NT. Still, 6NT may have play.

You could try 5♠, but what is partner going to do over that which he won't do over 6NT?

Over a 3♠ opening, and a 4♣ bid by partner in response to your double:

Perhaps you could try 4♠ and see what partner does over that. But it is still unlikely that you will get any useful information, as partner cannot have very much. If you are looking to find out if partner can bid the grand, he should be able to do that if you bid 6NT on at least some of the hands where it is right to do so.

As for finding 6♥ when that is the right contract - good luck.

[MrAce]

ahydra, on 2015-March-05, 09:29, said:

♠AK
♥AK109x
♦AKQ
♣Axx

IMPs. You're NV, they're vul. Partner deals and passes. What's your plan here if RHO opens a) 3S, b) 4S?

If you double, in each case LHO passes, partner bids the lowest sufficient number of clubs, RHO passes.

ahydra

Of course we dbl in each case, noting that RHO preempted red vs white w/o AK of his suit. Which tells me he is 7-4 at least in 1st case and probably more shape in case B. I am very pessimist about slam at this point, since I expect very bad splits in the suit we choose, if we choose one.

1-Over 4♣ my personal opinion is something between 4♠ and 4♥. Pd knows I did not jump to 4♥ so that I have tolerance to something and that my hearts are not godzilla. If I had 4 NT natural available at this point, I would have chosen it.

2-Over 4♠-X- 5♣. It is a bit different. OF course you and I may disagree at the end about the hands which are supposed to pass 4♠ double and hands that are OK to bid. I will probably end up in slam one way or the other, and this will probably be 6 ♣ or 6 NT. I expect him to hold 6 card clubs for this bid most of the time, since with less it is hard to come up with 5♣ bid in the style I lift that dbl.

I don't think I can find grandslam confidently, if there is one. And if opponents preempted recklessly at these colors and fooled me, more power to them. He took a big risk by doing this and caught me with 27 hcp, he deserves every inch of his imps.

[mikeh]

Over 3♠:

I assume that 4N would be the minors. Therefore we are obliged to double.

Partner's 4♣ call gives us very little useful information. Slam could still be cold or very good. 4♥ seems to me to be an underbid and a slight misdescription. I think the prototypical double then 4♥ hand would be more like 1=6=3=3 with 19+ hcp

What would double then 4N be? I suspect that most I/A players would assume keycard, and maybe even a lot of experts would as well. Since we cannot otherwise describe a balanced hand too strong for 3N, my thinking is that it has to be natural. The odds of our having a hand so strong that after 4♣ all we need, to place the contract, is keycard must be vanishingly low. After all partner could hold xx xxx xxx xxxxx!

Meanwhile, while a balanced 25+ is rare, it is otherwise unbiddable.

So if I expect my partner to be on the same page, double and 4N for me. Note that 4N is a good shot opposite the Yarborough I posited...so long as hearts are 3-2 or someone has a stiff Q or J.



If I think my partner's default understanding of 4N is keycard then I think I settle for the awful 4♥ call, intending to later discuss with partner (if someone I think I may play more with) why double then 4N should be natural.


Over 4♠: the good news is that when partner pulls he is pulling due to a long suit. The xx xxx xxx xxxxx hand passes the double. So I will make a vague grand slam gesture of 5♠. Again, it would be nice to know if we have a good enough understanding of our methods to know what 5N would mean here.....I'd want to be in grand opposite KQxxxx and out....even if he has 3 hearts, he has pitches on the spades and diamonds....and while clubs could be 4-0, it isn't unreasonable to expect at least the 9 from partner . I wouldn't risk it in a casual partnership.....it's not that 5♠ will likely help, but I at least have to make some gesture towards grand.

[gszes]

LOTS of HCP but little room for science. Before taking action try to imagine the different outcomes possible and where you think you will go from there. It will be tough sledding to bid anything with great confidence so maybe it is time to pull back a bit. The overall difficulty is p is never going to envision your having this much power so virtually every possible hand they have they will bid as if the hand is totally broke and you will have no way to tell.

Against 3s I think I will be happy with 3n and if p happens to amaze with a 4c (I will follow with 5n GSF) or 4d I will bid 7d or astounds with 4h (That is not as good as you think I will cue bid 4s to see if p can cue bid clubs though I will bid at least 6n)<I would expect any of those bids to be QJxxxx at worst>.

Against 4s the vul makes it much more appealing to just PASS and hope we cannot make slam and that we can score up +300-500 based on power alone.

For the optimists among you feel free to x and try to guess well from there since the odds of p leaving the x in appear to be slim at best. On average our combined assets will probably not make slam and that is a huge consideration when the mere finding of proper strain is a difficult task.

[mr1303]

27 HCP and I'm expected to pass it out? Even on my worst day that's too pessimistic. If partner bids 5C over my double of 4S I'll try 5S over that and pass 6C.

[mikeh]

gszes, on 2015-March-06, 09:23, said:

Against 3s I think I will be happy with 3n and if p happens to amaze with a 4c (I will follow with 5n GSF) or 4d I will bid 7d or astounds with 4h (That is not as good as you think I will cue bid 4s to see if p can cue bid clubs though I will bid at least 6n)<I would expect any of those bids to be QJxxxx at worst>.

You will have 10 tricks in your own hand opposite a zero count most of the time. Moreover, partner could hold up to 10 hcp. You could have 13 top tricks and yet partner shouldn't move over 3N.

Partner will never, ever pull to 4♣. Many experienced pairs use 4♣ as artificial and even those who don't won't run from 3N to 4m on this auction. Indeed, any slam-useful club holding will simply make partner happier with our 3N. He'll be glad to be able to contribute something.

Quote

Against 4s the vul makes it much more appealing to just PASS and hope we cannot make slam and that we can score up +300-500 based on power alone.

there is a good chance RHO has 6 playing tricks...either 8 spades to the QJ or some freak two suiter. Playing for +300 or +400 when we are almost laydown for 430 in our own hand, and when slam is quite likely seems silly.

Quote

For the optimists among you feel free to x and try to guess well from there since the odds of p leaving the x in appear to be slim at best. On average our combined assets will probably not make slam and that is a huge consideration when the mere finding of proper strain is a difficult task.

I think you have it entirely backwards, and your comment reveals a basic misunderstanding of how partner is supposed to bid over a double of 4♠.

The basic principle is that partner will pass unless he has somewhere to go. Thus a typical 2=3=4=4 0-5 count simply passes. On occasion they make their contract, but they often fail, while we have almost no hope at the 5-level if we bid, and we will often be doubled for more than their making game.

Thus if partner pulls the double of 4♠ to a suit....he is showing real length in that suit. I would expect a 6 card suit most of the time. Given that xx xxx xx xxxxxx makes slam plausible (tho unlikely), and you can see why one should force to a small slam over 5♣ and try for grand. After all, KQ9xxx makes 7N laydown.

Settling for undoubled undertricks is giving up on any attempt to play the game.

[ahydra]

(I think I should have posted this in the Interesting Bridge Hands forum, oops.)

The results are... 7NT is there (on a finesse), as partner has ♠x ♥QJxx ♦xxx ♣QJ9xx or similar, and opener has ♠QJ109xxxx ♥x ♦x ♣Kxx.

At our table partner opened 4S and opps continued X-5C; 6NT. Having scored up the slam, declarer berated his partner for not passing the penalty X (I guessed they missed 1100 vs 1020 on perfect defense, but...) Meanwhile, our team-mates only managed game+3 in hearts.

The eventual winners of the evening bid (3S)-4S; 5C-6H; 7H (not sure whether to call that science, luck or a bit of both!).

As mikeh said, ~25+ BAL isn't exactly a common type but it makes sense to have a way to bid it. Of course, if you make that agreement you'll next find yourself holding x Kx AKQxx AKQxx and want to bid X then 4NT for the minors

edit: can't really recall where the C10 is, but at our table declarer won three club tricks so must have been doubleton, sorry

ahydra

[mikeh]

ahydra, on 2015-March-06, 11:47, said:

As mikeh said, ~25+ BAL isn't exactly a common type but it makes sense to have a way to bid it. Of course, if you make that agreement you'll next find yourself holding x Kx AKQxx AKQxx and want to bid X then 4NT for the minors

ahydra

With that hand, one bids 4N right away over 3♠, as well as 4♠. Why would one double initially?

[PhilKing]

How did 7♥ make? There appears to be 12 tricks: 2 spades, 5 hearts, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs.

And FWIW I agree with Mikeh about the nature of a double of 4♠ and would pass with the companion hand. This approach does not always work, of course, but it helps having a database of all 4♠ openings from the top events so that I can see which approach works most often.

[gszes]

mikeh, on 2015-March-06, 10:29, said:

You will have 10 tricks in your own hand opposite a zero count most of the time. Moreover, partner could hold up to 10 hcp. You could have 13 top tricks and yet partner shouldn't move over 3N.

Partner will never, ever pull to 4♣. Many experienced pairs use 4♣ as artificial and even those who don't won't run from 3N to 4m on this auction. Indeed, any slam-useful club holding will simply make partner happier with our 3N. He'll be glad to be able to contribute something.



there is a good chance RHO has 6 playing tricks...either 8 spades to the QJ or some freak two suiter. Playing for +300 or +400 when we are almost laydown for 430 in our own hand, and when slam is quite likely seems silly.



I think you have it entirely backwards, and your comment reveals a basic misunderstanding of how partner is supposed to bid over a double of 4♠.

The basic principle is that partner will pass unless he has somewhere to go. Thus a typical 2=3=4=4 0-5 count simply passes. On occasion they make their contract, but they often fail, while we have almost no hope at the 5-level if we bid, and we will often be doubled for more than their making game.

Thus if partner pulls the double of 4♠ to a suit....he is showing real length in that suit. I would expect a 6 card suit most of the time. Given that xx xxx xx xxxxxx makes slam plausible (tho unlikely), and you can see why one should force to a small slam over 5♣ and try for grand. After all, KQ9xxx makes 7N laydown.

Settling for undoubled undertricks is giving up on any attempt to play the game.

Good discussion but my responses were based on this particular hand not an a typical tox hand where the probabilities if p being 2344 are significantly higher than they are in this hand. I disagree that slam is greater than 50% given the hcp situation and the huge chance that suits will break poorly. That is a matter of optimism vs my ingrained pessimism (still havent won any lottery despite 3 centuries + (give or take some) of trying). I completely disagree that p will pass 3n with a ten count. Heck after 3s 3n I would raise to 4n with an A and a K and out. The case I was trying to make is that partner will pretty much always pull 4sx to something and we will rarely (if ever) have a clue if they have done it with 0 or 9. Doubling 4s is essentially a decision to play at least 6 without really knowing if it is a good idea. I disagree with the optimism that displays.

It is definitely playing it safe but reasonably so when hoping for 3-5 hundred in undoubled undertricks opposite our near certain 430 for a 4n contract we cannot play (sorry but I totally disagree with playing 4n as natural as the times it comes up are puny in comparison to either wanting to ask for aces or (much more likely) wishing to show 2 places to play. Over 3 spades I prefer to have 4s available to show hearts and a minor and 4n to show the minors so it is not available (as natural) after 3s either.

By choosing 3n over 3s I leave quite a bit of room for p to show something "useful" over there which will allow us to confidently explore for 6 or even 7. By choosing pass over 4s I feel ok coming away with a reasonable + score for my hand when I feel there is almost no chance we can play 4sx and there is a strong chance we will get too high under less than ideal circumstances.

[MrAce]

gszes, on 2015-March-06, 13:03, said:

...... I completely disagree that p will pass 3n with a ten count. Heck after 3s 3n I would raise to 4n with an A and a K and out.......

Sometimes desperate comments to get out of the hole you created by previous reply, makes the hole a giant one. And I sincerely apologize if you really believe in what you just said. But then again, it is hard to tell which one is worse.

It's pretty damn scary to imagine a pd who will raise my 3 NT with 10 hcp or A-K and out, each time I overcall 3 NT.

[mikeh]

PhilKing, on 2015-March-06, 12:35, said:

How did 7♥ make? There appears to be 12 tricks: 2 spades, 5 hearts, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs.

And FWIW I agree with Mikeh about the nature of a double of 4♠ and would pass with the companion hand. This approach does not always work, of course, but it helps having a database of all 4♠ openings from the top events so that I can see which approach works most often.

I think that passing with the companion hand is a very close call, since we can be fairly sure of a playable fit here...if I were to bid, it would be 4N, intending to correct diamonds to hearts and passing clubs.

I would bid if the vulnerability were reversed, and pass at the given vulnerability.

I am not sure why the OP says that passing the double of 4♠ nets 1100 on 'perfect' defence. I would be truly embarrassed were I to let them escape with 800. We'll cash a diamond. We might switch right away to a heart, under which partner would play the Q, and we'd force a ruff. We win the spade, try to cash a diamond, if we didn't do so earlier, have that ruffed, and now it is trivial to collect 1100.

[BillPatch]

An authority who I respect has recommended that we should estimate partner has an odd 5-6 hcp when we chose our bid over a preempt. With only 1-2 hcp more(although 3 controls) gszes is raising. Tomfoolery!

[ahydra]

mikeh, on 2015-March-06, 12:35, said:

With that hand, one bids 4N right away over 3♠, as well as 4♠. Why would one double initially?

To distinguish between that and something a trick or two weaker.

PhilKing, on 2015-March-06, 12:35, said:

How did 7♥ make? There appears to be 12 tricks: 2 spades, 5 hearts, 3 diamonds and 2 clubs.

And FWIW I agree with Mikeh about the nature of a double of 4♠ and would pass with the companion hand. This approach does not always work, of course, but it helps having a database of all 4♠ openings from the top events so that I can see which approach works most often.

Sorry, I guess the C10 was doubleton in the other hand (at our table declarer ran the CQ, partner ducking, then CJ and claimed). Fixed.

I think I would have passed as well.

mikeh, on 2015-March-06, 13:33, said:

I am not sure why the OP says that passing the double of 4♠ nets 1100 on 'perfect' defence. I would be truly embarrassed were I to let them escape with 800. We'll cash a diamond. We might switch right away to a heart, under which partner would play the Q, and we'd force a ruff. We win the spade, try to cash a diamond, if we didn't do so earlier, have that ruffed, and now it is trivial to collect 1100.

Of course, you would be embarrassed because you are a world-class player . But these are everyday club LOLs we're talking about - the winning team's other table, for instance, managed to let 4SX go for 800. I haven't seen the full results but I'd wager a couple others did too. My point was that declarer (who had no idea he could have collected 1100) should have been perfectly happy to score up the slam, having punted his way to success and it being nowhere near a certainty the other table would find it.

ahydra

[PhilKing]

mikeh, on 2015-March-06, 13:33, said:

I would bid if the vulnerability were reversed, and pass at the given vulnerability.

This has been worrying me.

I have a friend who has a much larger database than I (though including hands from a less exalted level), and he alleges that it is optimal to play a more take-out oriented style at this particular vulnerability.

This is based on his collected stats (mine does not work that way - once I hone in on a particular sequence, I go through the deals by hand), but I guess the rationale is that they tend to be stronger for 4♠ at red, and our saves are way more profitable.

Anyway, I have enough data now to do a meaningful search on this topic, but it will have to wait a few months.