[Free]

 jogs, on 2015-April-04, 09:08, said:

Mainly probabilistic games like bridge aren't suitable for brute force analysis.

And why is that? Because we lack computing power to do it properly...

[jogs]

 Free, on 2015-April-04, 09:15, said:

And why is that? Because we lack computing power to do it properly...

No. 90% slams still go down 10% of the time.
Deterministic games can be 'solved'. Probabilistic games cannot.

[Free]

 jogs, on 2015-April-04, 13:03, said:

No. 90% slams still go down 10% of the time.
Deterministic games can be 'solved'. Probabilistic games cannot.

That's what I've been saying the whole time, the best you can get from a computer is the percentage line. If we agree that finding the percentage line is actually making the world class play, then simulations can be beneficial.

I know there are various ways of calculating that percentage, but the easiest way is by doing lots of relevant simulations to reach a pretty accurate result.

[hrothgar]

 jogs, on 2015-April-04, 13:03, said:

No. 90% slams still go down 10% of the time.
Deterministic games can be 'solved'. Probabilistic games cannot.

You don't seem to be familiar with the definition of the word "solved"

"Matching pennies" has been "solved" for the better part of a century

[Free]

[billw55]

 Free, on 2015-April-04, 13:15, said:

That's what I've been saying the whole time, the best you can get from a computer is the percentage line. If we agree that finding the percentage line is actually making the world class play, then simulations can be beneficial.

Sure .. if we define world class play that way.

I wonder however, to what extent human factors come in to play at that level. Things like picking up on an opponents fidget, or posture, or tension level, and finding key cards based on that. This is the kind of thing that it will be much more difficult to get computers to do well. The question is, how much that matters.

[Zelandakh]

Justin has given the impression that is not so important at the highest level, Bill, simply because the top players do not give anything away with such obvious tells. It is probably more important just below that level. Moreover, the computer has an advantage in not giving any tells at all, which nicely evens up any such disadvantage in head to head matches.

[billw55]

 Zelandakh, on 2015-April-06, 08:38, said:

Justin has given the impression that is not so important at the highest level, Bill, simply because the top players do not give anything away with such obvious tells. It is probably more important just below that level. Moreover, the computer has an advantage in not giving any tells at all, which nicely evens up any such disadvantage in head to head matches.

So, it is a part of the advantage world class players enjoy over others, but not among each other? That makes sense.

And yeah .. those bots are some cool cats

[jogs]

Okay, I should say in deterministic games the outcome is predetermined.

The bidding portion of bridge certainly hasn't been solved.
And there may be a ro sham bo effect. System A beats system B.
System B beats system C. System C beats system A.

[antonylee]

Even in card play such non-transitivity exists, see e.g. https://en.wikipedia...ixed_strategies
It doesn't really matter; again there is always an optimal (in the sense of non-exploitable) strategy.

[jogs]

 hrothgar, on 2015-April-04, 15:30, said:

You don't seem to be familiar with the definition of the word "solved"

"Matching pennies" has been "solved" for the better part of a century

http://en.wikipedia....iki/Solved_game

I found it. I was using "solved" correctly. You are confusing optimal strategy with solved.

[rhm]

 jogs, on 2015-April-04, 13:03, said:

Deterministic games can be 'solved'.

This may look evident to you, not to me.
What is the precise definition of a "deterministic" game?
How do you determine a (nontrivial) game (say chess or GO) is deterministic?

Rainer Herrmann

[Zelandakh]

It just means there are no random factors, Rainer. The rules of the game lead to the statement that chess is deterministic. Sports are typically not deterministic (physical factors are involved) abd bridge is clearly not due to the randomness introduced by the dealing process and presence of hidden hands.

[helene_t]

Maybe different textbooks use different definition of what a "deterministic" game is, but as I understand it the presence of hidden hands in itself doesn't make a game non-deterministic. See for example

http://www.cs.cmu.ed...507gamesI07.pdf

[Zelandakh]

 helene_t, on 2015-April-08, 04:08, said:

Maybe different textbooks use different definition of what a "deterministic" game is, but as I understand it the presence of hidden hands in itself doesn't make a game non-deterministic.

Can you think of any non-deterministic game that has random dealing + hidden hands?

[hrothgar]

If folks are actually interested in these topics, the following might prove helpful

http://www.google.co....90237346,d.b2w

[helene_t]

 Zelandakh, on 2015-April-08, 05:11, said:

Can you think of any non-deterministic game that has random dealing + hidden hands?

Well I cannot think of any sensible definition of the word "determinstic" that would make any such game deterministic.

[NickRW]

 hrothgar, on 2015-April-08, 06:07, said:

If folks are actually interested in these topics, the following might prove helpful

http://www.google.co....90237346,d.b2w

It might have proved helpful if I understood half of the terminology!

[jogs]

 rhm, on 2015-April-08, 03:29, said:

This may look evident to you, not to me.
What is the precise definition of a "deterministic" game?
How do you determine a (nontrivial) game (say chess or GO) is deterministic?

Rainer Herrmann

Read the entire link. Chess is partially solved. The end game can be solved.
GO is more complex than chess.

Non-deterministic games have a random element. All the common sports games
are non-deterministic. Card games are non-deterministic. Poker is not solved.
Although certain poker situations are solved.

The math guys use the term perfect information for deterministic games.

[jogs]

 helene_t, on 2015-April-08, 04:08, said:

Maybe different textbooks use different definition of what a "deterministic" game is, but as I understand it the presence of hidden hands in itself doesn't make a game non-deterministic. See for example

http://www.cs.cmu.ed...507gamesI07.pdf

Just look at the matrix on page 2. A hidden hand means you don't have perfect information on your opponent's cards. Therefore the game is non-deterministic.