[thepossum]

shyams, on 2020-November-03, 21:11, said:

According to betting markets, Trump is currently 80% likely to be reelected. Betting markets rarely get it wrong so late in the play --- so it looks like Trump is your President for 4 more years.

Which begs the question why Trump was around $3 just a few hours ago

[Zelandakh]

Here's an interesting anomaly. The AP has apparently called Virginia for Biden while he is officially 5.7% behind. I am not sure I have ever seen that before in an election!

Edit: it is 5.9% now

[Winstonm]

thepossum, on 2020-November-03, 21:43, said:

But what I find curious is that it tends to be supporters of competing tendencies that like to make most rules and impose most authority over all our lives. Thats what confuses me

The authoritarian personality is not based on political views. The term as used comes from social sciences to describe a type of personality.

[hrothgar]

Jesus ***** Christ
Just woke up
Trying to understand what's what

Looks like the best case scenario is  "Biden wins Arizona and we're living in the "contested Pennsylvania Hellscape"? 
with a genuine chance of Trump "winning"?

Four more years of Trump will destroy the Republic.

Two more years of a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate will be horrific in its own right

I am crying for my country

[Zelandakh]

Biden just needs Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and a congressional district. No panic - he is still right on course even if he loses Pennsylvania.

[hrothgar]

Couple bright lights at least

1.  Georgia is swinging back into the Biden camp (the Atlanta votes are coming in very very strong)
2.  Biden looks to have flipped Arizona 

If Biden wins GA, its all but over

With Biden winning AZ, he has a viable (even likely) path even if he loses PA
I'm going to use this as a sign to crawl back to bed

[shyams]

thepossum, on 2020-November-03, 21:48, said:

shyams, on 2020-November-03, 21:11, said:

According to betting markets, Trump is currently 80% likely to be reelected.

Which begs the question why Trump was around $3 just a few hours ago

An interesting question; so I looked at the timeline. When you made your initial post of $2.88, the voting process was still under way and no new information other than the opinion polls was available. In the hours that followed, the opinion-poll based estimation was being replaced by much better information in terms of actual count (often with a county-by-county level granularity). This should have moved the price to a more accurate estimate of likely final outcome.

However, this election looks like an unusual one. The 80% probability I quoted some three hours ago has now whittled away. I had a quick look and prices now indicate Trump to have a 56% chance. It also looks like a messy election outcome, in that the election could remain undecided for another 24 - 48 hours (or even longer).

[Zelandakh]

shyams, on 2020-November-03, 23:49, said:

I had a quick look and prices now indicate Trump to have a 56% chance. It also looks like a messy election outcome, in that the election could remain undecided for another 24 - 48 hours (or even longer).

A 56% chance for dodgy Donald at this stage is just not based on any sort of mathematical reality. If I were a betting man I would happily take those odds on a Biden win.

[Zelandakh]

The models now have Biden up in all of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Pennsylvania.

[Zelandakh]

Oh dear, this is a sad moment for America and frankly also for the entire world.

[Zelandakh]

They have not been called yet but it looks like Cunningham and Gideon have lost their Senate races in North Carolina and Maine, meaning that there is essentially no valid path left for Democrats to take control of the Senate. So liberals should not get their hopes up - even if Biden does win the WH, the chance of any sort of radical agenda is close to nil.

[pilowsky]

45% of Americans do not categorically deny the existence of ghosts or demons.
None of what has happened in the past 24 hours surprises me at all.

[Zelandakh]

Biden now just 11000 behind in Wisconsin with the last absentee ballots being counted. Looks like he has it I think.

[hrothgar]

My biggest question right now is "In what way were some many polls so very wrong?" What are we talking about here? Voter suppression? Ridiculous levels of Republican turn out? I am seriously concerned that this election is being stolen.

If Trump does get away with stealing this, then we are all ***** doomed.

[shyams]

Ha ha, this is the weirdest unfolding of an election result ever. My favourite betting odds now indicate a 60% probability of a Biden victory.

The odds have been swinging over the past few hours like something I have never seen before.

[hrothgar]

I am literally crying right now

Last time I recall this happening was back in 1997

[shyams]

hrothgar, on 2020-November-04, 05:08, said:

My biggest question right now is "In what way were some many polls so very wrong?" What are we talking about here? Voter suppression? Ridiculous levels of Republican turn out? I am seriously concerned that this election is being stolen.

If Trump does get away with stealing this, then we are all ***** doomed.

Totally agree with you. The results make little sense given all the opinion polls so far; especially as forecasting models were strengthened based on learning from 2016 cycle.

I am no fan of conspiracy theories but this one does not sound like a fair fight. "Stealing" has begun to sound very plausible!

[Cyberyeti]

shyams, on 2020-November-04, 05:18, said:

Totally agree with you. The results make little sense given all the opinion polls so far; especially as forecasting models were strengthened based on learning from 2016 cycle.

I am no fan of conspiracy theories but this one does not sound like a fair fight. "Stealing" has begun to sound very plausible!

Possibly some people who would have voted Biden deciding they weren't going to queue for 3 or 4 hours to vote when many Trump voters can get it done in munutes ?

[shyams]

By the way, the BBC analysts presented a scenario late last night --- after all but the current states had been called --- in which the Electoral College votes tied at 269:269. Imagine the chaos that would ensue if this were to happen and the House of Representatives had the final say!

We could then have Biden as President and Pence as Vice President.

[Zelandakh]

Everyone feeling more comfortable now?

shyams, on 2020-November-04, 05:32, said:

By the way, the BBC analysts presented a scenario late last night --- after all but the current states had been called --- in which the Electoral College votes tied at 269:269.

I mentioned that possibility in my preview crib notes post a few days ago. It was quite predictable as a possible, if unlikely, scenario from looking at the polling data coming out of the states.