[cherdano]

hrothgar, on 2020-November-04, 05:08, said:

My biggest question right now is "In what way were some many polls so very wrong?" What are we talking about here? Voter suppression? Ridiculous levels of Republican turn out? I am seriously concerned that this election is being stolen.

If Trump does get away with stealing this, then we are all ***** doomed.

Can I offer an easier explanation? Loads of voters were enthusiastic to vote for Trump. (We also had loads of voters who were enthusiastic to vote for Biden.)

The thing about polls is that their response rates are ridiculously low - maybe 2-3%? It's a miracle that they are as accurate as they are, especially in the US were support for a party comes is clustered more than any other country I am familiar with.

[shyams]

Zelandakh, on 2020-November-04, 05:41, said:

Everyone feeling more comfortable now?

shyams, on 2020-November-04, 05:11, said:

My favourite betting odds now indicate a 60% probability of a Biden victory

Betting odds currently stand at 70%

[cherdano]

Zelandakh, on 2020-November-04, 05:41, said:

Everyone feeling more comfortable now?

I'll only relax after Wisconsin has been called for Biden, the Supreme Court rejects all challenges, and the moderators lock this thread so we can start a new US politics thread on life after.

[Zelandakh]

What it looks like is that the samples did not contain a large enough sample of non-Mexican latinos in Florida to accurately model that demographic. The other area where there appears to have been a major polling error is in the Mid West rust belt. That error is perhaps less than it currently appears because the outstanding ballots are absentee that will break very strongly blue but seems to be consistent across the region that there is a 7-8% shift. Time will tell where that came from but it would not surprise me if fears over fracking were a considerable part of it. Perhaps that was a late shift that the pollsters missed, or perhaps voters did not want to admit that they were supporting energy companies over the environment, or perhaps there is a fundamental problem with the methodology used to construct the sample universe. Whatever the reason, the polling error has at least made for an exciting night. And if dodgy Donald gets his orange jump suit at the end of it, everything is good, right?

[hrothgar]

Zelandakh, on 2020-November-04, 06:21, said:

And if dodgy Donald gets his orange jump suit at the end of it, everything is good, right?

Hardly

1. A Republican senate is going to be able to neuter a Biden Presidency and they will actively conspire to see this country fail, just as they did in 2008+

2. Trump is an incomprehensibly bad President and somehow he has a serious chance of winning. Imagine what a more competent fascist will do

3. The US desperately needs electoral reform and voting rights and none of this is going to happen

4. Even if Trump goes down, if it takes a widespread violence to do so its highly problematic

[Winstonm]

It is becoming more and more unclear if the U.S.A. is worth salvaging.

[awm]

Winstonm, on 2020-November-04, 07:53, said:

It is becoming more and more unclear if the U.S.A. is worth salvaging.

Well there is a reason we moved to Switzerland a bit less than four years ago. The love that so many Americans have for this awful president does not speak well of the country.

With that said, it looks very much like Biden will win. He is now leading in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan (and that will be enough if it stays that way). Remaining votes are very blue-leaning in almost every state (including those three) so it would not be surprising for his leads to grow further. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are all within reach too.

The Senate is more problematic; Republican Susan Collins may still lose in Maine (remember the remaining votes are blue-leaning, and ranked-choice voting in Maine means her Democratic challenger likely has around 5% more votes than currently attributed to her once the independent running further to the left is eliminated). North Carolina is also still in play (these two seats flipping would give Democrats the narrowest of majorities assuming Biden wins the White House), and both Georgia seats are likely to go to a run-off in January.

It's not the landslide one would expect if one had faith in the American people! But it's well within the range of possibilities forecast by sites like fivethirtyeight.com and at least should get Trump out of the White House.

[PrecisionL]

shyams, on 2020-November-04, 05:32, said:

By the way, the BBC analysts presented a scenario late last night --- after all but the current states had been called --- in which the Electoral College votes tied at 269:269. Imagine the chaos that would ensue if this were to happen and the House of Representatives had the final say!

We could then have Biden as President and Pence as Vice President.

Not true. Voting is by states not total membership in the House. Trump wins if it goes to the House, 26 1/2 - 23 1/2.

[Zelandakh]

I have to say I am genuinely shocked by the cluelessness of a lot of the election coverage. On both CNN and Fox, the experts come on and it seems like it is a huge surprise to them that Biden might get to 270 with NV + AZ + WI + MI + any CD, which was the second most likely path to success at the start of election day (after WI + MI + PA, which is obviously also still open). I suspect much of the poor analysis contributed to the poor predictive quality of the spread market. I hope you made a ton of cash shyams. I think even Fox are starting to lose faith now as they watch the key states slowly turning blue.

[Zelandakh]

awm, on 2020-November-04, 08:17, said:

The Senate is more problematic; Republican Susan Collins may still lose in Maine (remember the remaining votes are blue-leaning, and ranked-choice voting in Maine means her Democratic challenger likely has around 5% more votes than currently attributed to her once the independent running further to the left is eliminated).

I think you are being extremely optimistic here Adam. Collins is currently running at 49.6% and clearly has a lot more support amongst blue voters than the President. The Dem has 43.6 and the independent 4.2, so even if they transfer 100% that is only 47.8. Obviously it depends on which votes are left out there but I would hesitantly tip Collins to get to 50%+1 at this stage.

awm, on 2020-November-04, 08:17, said:

and both Georgia seats are likely to go to a run-off in January.

Not so fast on that one. Last I checked Purdue was running at 50.8%. Admittedly the outstanding votes are going to break very heavily blue but the run off, while likely, is certainly not yet a lock.

awm, on 2020-November-04, 08:17, said:

It's not the landslide one would expect if one had faith in the American people! But it's well within the range of possibilities forecast by sites like fivethirtyeight.com and at least should get Trump out of the White House.

This was sort of the point I was making earlier to Richard. The results are well within the margin of error with the main misses being the rust belt and Florida non-Mexican latinos. People were just expecting a blow out and not keeping themselves focused on the most probable paths to success.

[Winstonm]

awm, on 2020-November-04, 08:17, said:

Well there is a reason we moved to Switzerland a bit less than four years ago. The love that so many Americans have for this awful president does not speak well of the country.

With that said, it looks very much like Biden will win. He is now leading in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan (and that will be enough if it stays that way). Remaining votes are very blue-leaning in almost every state (including those three) so it would not be surprising for his leads to grow further. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are all within reach too.

The Senate is more problematic; Republican Susan Collins may still lose in Maine (remember the remaining votes are blue-leaning, and ranked-choice voting in Maine means her Democratic challenger likely has around 5% more votes than currently attributed to her once the independent running further to the left is eliminated). North Carolina is also still in play (these two seats flipping would give Democrats the narrowest of majorities assuming Biden wins the White House), and both Georgia seats are likely to go to a run-off in January.

It's not the landslide one would expect if one had faith in the American people! But it's well within the range of possibilities forecast by sites like fivethirtyeight.com and at least should get Trump out of the White House.

Quote

America's efforts to achieve racial equality as our society grows increasingly diverse have fueled an insidious reaction and intensifying polarization. And if one thing is clear from studying breakdowns throughout history, it's that extreme polarization can kill democracies.

There are, therefore, reasons for alarm. Not only did Americans elect a demagogue in 2016, but we did so at a time when the norms that once protected our democracy were already coming unmoored.

But if other countries' experiences teach us that that polarization can kill democracies, they also teach us that breakdown is neither inevitable nor irreversible.

But it is also plain that breakdown is not automatically reversed or inevitably corrected. Nearly 70 million votes were cast for Trump - after seeing him in action for 4 years. "....one thing is clear from studying breakdowns throughout history, it's that extreme polarization can kill democracies."

It is hard to imagine a more disturbing example of extreme polarization than 70 million voters deciding to follow Trump, regardless of what he does.

[cherdano]

Zelandakh, on 2020-November-04, 08:43, said:

The results are well within the margin of error with the main misses being the rust belt and Florida non-Mexican latinos. People were just expecting a blow out and not keeping themselves focused on the most probable paths to success.

Hmm, I guess it's better to wait until all votes are counted before making such statements. But for now it looks like the polls were quite far off in Florida, Texas, Ohio, MI, WI, and didn't do great in PA. And obviously I've only been following the EC-relevant states.

[PassedOut]

Looks good for Biden now. With Wisconsin and Michigan in his column, if Biden gets Nevada too, he doesn't need Pennsylvania, although it would be good to have that larger margin. And Georgia and North Carolina would be big pluses also.

Trump's notion that the Supreme Court will steal the election for him is off-base, in my opinion. They have their own institution to preserve, no matter their personal political views.

[Zelandakh]

cherdano, on 2020-November-04, 09:02, said:

Hmm, I guess it's better to wait until all votes are counted before making such statements. But for now it looks like the polls were quite far off in Florida, Texas, Ohio, MI, WI, and didn't do great in PA. And obviously I've only been following the EC-relevant states.

Obviously it is risky to try to say what the errors were before the experts have done their analysis but Florida appears to have been primarily the non-Mexican latinos. I suspect that this group was not sufficiently included in samples to allow the demographic to be modelled correctly. In addition, Reps registered many first-time voters in this group and it might be that pollsters simply underestimated how many would vote (since first-time voters are never modelled as "likely voters" in the US).
Texas is rather a case in point of what I meant. The raw polls had it around +2-3 for Trump but many were selling it as a toss up. The actual figure of +6 to Trump is well within the margin of error for state polling. Flipping Texas would be such a massive shake up of American politics though that many liberals got stars in their eyes rather than remembering that the target is 270, not 350. I estimated Texas as the 8th most likely path for Biden, barely worth sinking time or resources into.
The remaining states all fall into the Mid West bracket. There appears to have been a general error across this entire group and the pollsters are going to have to track down what happened. I put forward an idea of it perhaps being linked to the energy industry but given how white the counties with the biggest red shift are, it could easily have been something as simple as a racist reaction to Obama coming in for the last week of the campaign. I daresay we will get some answers on this at some point during the next year or so.

[y66]

A participant at a rally by Democrats Abroad Germany holds a cardboard reading 'count every vote', in front of the Brandenburg Gate near the US embassy in Berlin on Wednesday. Photograph: EPA

Tatsächlich.

[kenberg]

Among friends there are several who like to walk, about six or so women and one man, me. I don't know what guys have against walking. Anyway, Becky was walking with one of the others this morning and she told Becky that she had voted by mail, undecided until she finally marked the ballot and sent it in. Her thoughts were that the economy had done well but you can't benefit from a good economy if you are dead, so after thinking that over she voted for Biden. But, for her, it was not clear cut. her 16 year old son can't stand Trump. but he didn't get to vote. I don't know how the woman's husband voted, but she is not at all a woman who would just do whatever her husband told her to do so his vote, as far as I know, could have gone either way.

I realize I am reporting one conversation. Data is good (ok, make that data are good) but to get an understanding what is going on I find it useful to talk to people.

Did I mention I am finding this all pretty scary?

[johnu]

PassedOut, on 2020-November-04, 09:17, said:

Trump's notion that the Supreme Court will steal the election for him is off-base, in my opinion. They have their own institution to preserve, no matter their personal political views.

I don't think any of the Republican judges except Roberts have any interest in preserving the "institution". They only care if they can come up with decisions that favor Republicans politicians and businesses.

[pilowsky]

America is total shitshow.
This farce of an election bears that out. The joke of a reality TV show that constitutes 'coverage' where 'personalities' instead of real people cover the historic catastrophe unfolding makes that clear.

Yes in answer to the OP. Trump wins whatever the result. America is a permanent laughing-stock. Nobody will ever take it seriously again. Of course, when I say 'nobody' I obviously mean about 10 people.
America had to be pulled into WWII like a spoiled child.
After a supremely talented homosexual managed to decode the NAZI cipher. The Americans used it incorrectly and nearly gave the game away.
After Florey painstakingly discovered and proved the efficacy of penicillin at Oxford, an American company patented it to make money out of it.
And on and on and on.
After WWII America finally repatriated NAZI war criminals for their military-industrial complex.
Trumpism (if you can create a single word that embodies all the evils of humanity) has permeated Australia as well. Most of the Bridge Clubs on the North Shore of Sydney are run by Trumpists. Thank you, America.


And yes, I can tar all of you with one big brush.
I used to go to United States society for Neuroscience conferences where they proudly touted their wonderful contributions to equity.
What they meant was that they were starting to let white women do things in equal numbers.
But the black people were only allowed to serve the food and clean up afterwards.

Even apparently intelligent Americans think that ensuring that every person in the community is cared, for means that they, as individuals, will have to slave in frozen gulags for the rest of their natural lives.
This represents an almost complete lack of understanding of altruism, empathy and love of fellow man. Saying 'thank you' is meaningless in America.
That's why in America you say anodyne phrases like 'have a nice day' at the end of a transaction instead of 'thanks, mate'. Simply giving pleasure to another human being is not enough for an American. money must change hands.
Phrases such as 'You owe me a dollar' and 'Not on my dime' permeate the culture.

This is why nobody trusts anyone.

Every single tiny act is transactional. A little coin must change hands. it's pathetic. And Americans wonder why they can't get on with the rest of the world.
There is no trust in such a world.

An Australian that lived for too long in America once boasted to me that they were incredibly empathetic. In fact, they were amazed by how much empathy they had. Not much insight though.

What is the 'right to bear arms' anyway? Is that like the right to wear Lycra, or the right to be educated?
Americans have a constitution frozen in time that can't be changed. It protects the interests of a tiny group of crazy people with lunatic beliefs that yearn for the day when they could rule like Lords over black people.

I've visited nearly every country in the world. I felt safer in Tehran than I did in Washington or New York no question.

The French gave the Statue of Liberty to America. Americans do not agree with the sentiments expressed in the poem written at its base.
Good luck America. You need it.

[Winstonm]

To the Trumpsters and those who voted Republican. Your president and his party has tried and still is actively trying to invalidate the national election - the only thing that truly separates the U.S. from 3rd world autocracies - yet you still voted for him and his party.

Seriously, nearly 70 million of you prefer your own brand of autocracy to freedom for all? That's truly sick.

You really need to do some self-examination; you're not that different than the Taliban.

[kenberg]

Finding amusement where I can, I will indulge in regionalism. WaPo notes that Wisconsin has now been called for Biden. PassedOut noted above that the same is true of Michigan, although WaPo hasn't said so . [Now WaPo agrees] But PassedOut lives there, WaPo doesn't, so let's go with his assessment. Also Minnesota, that's my home state, and Illinois went for Biden. Growing up in St. Paul I never did understand why I was in the "Midwest" Seemed like the North to me. Anyway, Minnesota borders Lake Superior, as does Wisconsin. Wisconsin also borders Michigan, as does Illinois. And Michigan borders Lake Huron. Maybe we could call ourselves the Western Great Lakes Region. We all went for Biden. Now Indiana also borders Lake Michigan, just a bit, but we can pretend we don't see that.

I always thought that the Midwest should have some Midcowboys.
Western Great Lakes Region? I like that. I swam, I boated, I fished, I canoed, I water-skied. But a cowboy? I'm a cowboy who never saw a cow, never roped a steer 'cause I don't know how, sure ain't aiming to start in now. Ya. Western Great Lakes Region went for Biden. You betcha.