[Winstonm]

FWIW: I've been reading rumor and innuendo about Nate Silver of 538 fame, that he has a problem with a gamvling addiction and that is affecting what he is doing.
An example from X, formally Twitter.

Quote

Nate Silver is employed by Polymarket, a site that allows you to bet on political outcomes, and also runs a "prediction model" that has the ability to directly affect the betting behavior.

[kenberg]

Ok, but I still ask "Where are we?"

The 538 numbers sort of reflect what I think has been happening. Enthusias as Harris took over from Biden, some of it cooling a bit, I think that could be expected, then a rise after the debate. But not a large rise. We need more. I won't go on repeating my previous post, but now what?

[pilowsky]

Winstonm, on 2024-September-16, 10:31, said:

FWIW: I've been reading rumor and innuendo about Nate Silver of 538 fame, that he has a problem with a gamvling addiction and that is affecting what he is doing.
An example from X, formally Twitter.

Your reference is a post on X?
Maybe he's also responsible for the declining cat population in Springfield.

[johnu]

kenberg, on 2024-September-14, 08:16, said:

One more thing: Most unfortunately, she needs a very big win. Of course Trump will denounce any Harris win, no matter the margin of victory, as fraudulent. So there is trouble ahead. but we can at least hope that the win is clear enough and there are enough people who are sane enough that we will get through this.

It would be nice for Harris to have a very big win, big enough that the election can be called a few hours after the polls close. In any case, a few votes win in the key swing states is good enough.

For sane people, a 1 vote victory margin is clear enough once the recounts are completed. For Convicted Felon Trump and his cult, no margin of victory by Harris will be big enough. Trump cult politicians have refused to conceded elections when they lost by 40 or 50%.

[thepossum]

59-40 is still very close. There is only one vote this year I believe
2-horse race - wiith apologies to the cats and dogs
What was the remaining outcome - another insurrection attempt

More seriously I trust betting sites to be very accurate with odds
2 dollars Trump
1.83 Harris

On Sportsbet today - may try to engage in some arbitrage

[hrothgar]

thepossum, on 2024-September-16, 18:43, said:

More seriously I trust betting sites to be very accurate with odds
2 dollars Trump
1.83 Harris

Why would you ever trust a betting site?
These market are incredibly thin and very vulnerable to manipulation.

The world if full of idiots who are happy to spend $$$ to signal their opinions.

Look at the price of meme stocks like AMC or GameStop
Or, if you prefer a more recent example, the DJT "SPAC"

Keynes said it best

"Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits – of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities."

[kenberg]

hrothgar, on 2024-September-17, 06:07, said:

Why would you ever trust a betting site?
These market are incredibly thin and very vulnerable to manipulation.

The world if full of idiots who are happy to spend $$ to signal their opinions.

Look at the price of meme stocks like AMC or GameStop
Or, if you prefer a more recent example, the DJT "SPAC"

Keynes said it best

"Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits – of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities."

There are many bad situations and I get frustrated in that some seem unsolvable. Massive gambling is one such.

https://www.washingt...e-black-market/
is a recent article about the problem, but it is one of many articles.


My parents, and two other couples (parents oof my childhood friends) would host penny ante poker games.. The stakes were as "penny ante" suggests. and when I was 10 or maybe 11 my parents would give me some cash so I could play too until bedtime. The beer that was served probably cost more than the stakes that changed hands. No one went broke. After I moved to Maryland my father visited. He had never seen a horse race so we went to one. He and I each placed a two dollar bet on a horse and we each lost our two dollars. That was the gambling I grew up with.


But people who can not at all afford to lose money place large bets. Of course they shouldn't, but of course they do. I don't know how to stop this from happening and it seems no one else does either.


Yes, I am posting about a problem that I have no good ideas for a solution. Very frustrating.


I am guessing the possum keeps his gambling under cotrol. Perhaps he even wins. Me, I have nothing to do with it. I would not know how to place an online bet and I have no intention of finding out.

[kenberg]

Speaking of frustrating problems, gun violence.

We seem to be doing something, but not nearly enough.

A guy is on a golf course, he has an AK-47 with a scope and a camera. Oh, he is just out for a stroll, exercising his second amendment rights? Fortunately, in this case he has a criminal record including felonies and somehow, thank God, it is actually against the law for such a person to be carrying an AK-47.

Bu really. What doi we think anyone intends if they are walking around with an Ak-47? Sel-protection" ? Maybe in a war zone. Just enjoying the day, carrying his favorite gun? Really?

It appears that this golf course guy can actually be charged with crimes even though he had not (yet) shot anyone. But we need to do more. Much more.

[shyams]

kenberg, on 2024-September-17, 08:02, said:

Speaking of frustrating problems, gun violence.

We seem to be doing something, but not nearly enough.

A guy is on a golf course, he has an AK-47 with a scope and a camera. Oh, he is just out for a stroll, exercising his second amendment rights? Fortunately, in this case he has a criminal record including felonies and somehow, thank God, it is actually against the law for such a person to be carrying an AK-47.

Bu really. What doi we think anyone intends if they are walking around with an Ak-47? Sel-protection" ? Maybe in a war zone. Just enjoying the day, carrying his favorite gun? Really?

It appears that this golf course guy can actually be charged with crimes even though he had not (yet) shot anyone. But we need to do more. Much more.

I was hoping that the first reference to that incident would be a post like "Dang it! Missed again".

Instead we get this oblique one, wherein the talk is about 2nd Amendment notwithstanding the fact that owning an AK-47 has been illegal in United States for ages.

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2024-September-17, 07:39, said:

There are many bad situations and I get frustrated in that some seem unsolvable. Massive gambling is one such.

https://www.washingt...e-black-market/
is a recent article about the problem, but it is one of many articles.

My parents, and two other couples (parents oof my childhood friends) would host penny ante poker games.. The stakes were as "penny ante" suggests. and when I was 10 or maybe 11 my parents would give me some cash so I could play too until bedtime. The beer that was served probably cost more than the stakes that changed hands. No one went broke. After I moved to Maryland my father visited. He had never seen a horse race so we went to one. He and I each placed a two dollar bet on a horse and we each lost our two dollars. That was the gambling I grew up with.

But people who can not at all afford to lose money place large bets. Of course they shouldn't, but of course they do. I don't know how to stop this from happening and it seems no one else does either.

Yes, I am posting about a problem that I have no good ideas for a solution. Very frustrating.

I am guessing the possum keeps his gambling under cotrol. Perhaps he even wins. Me, I have nothing to do with it. I would not know how to place an online bet and I have no intention of finding out.

When I lived in Las Vegas during the late late 80\s until late 90s, I had a friend who was a recovering addict, alcohol, drugs, and gambling. He told me that of the three, gambling was far and away the most difficult to stop. (After this talk, I found him once after shift at the blackjack tables and had to call his wife to come get him.) Anyway, he told me that winning and losing have zero to do with it; it has everything to do with the sensation of expectation while the conclusion is in doubt. The addiction is to adrenaline which keeps on coming as long as you keep on betting.

[Winstonm]

kenberg, on 2024-September-17, 08:02, said:

Speaking of frustrating problems, gun violence.

We seem to be doing something, but not nearly enough.

A guy is on a golf course, he has an AK-47 with a scope and a camera. Oh, he is just out for a stroll, exercising his second amendment rights? Fortunately, in this case he has a criminal record including felonies and somehow, thank God, it is actually against the law for such a person to be carrying an AK-47.

Bu really. What doi we think anyone intends if they are walking around with an Ak-47? Sel-protection" ? Maybe in a war zone. Just enjoying the day, carrying his favorite gun? Really?

It appears that this golf course guy can actually be charged with crimes even though he had not (yet) shot anyone. But we need to do more. Much more.

Just to clarify, I believe he was armed with an American made AR-15, not the Russian made AK-47.

[kenberg]

shyams, on 2024-September-17, 08:37, said:

I was hoping that the first reference to that incident would be a post like "Dang it! Missed again".

Instead we get this oblique one, wherein the talk is about 2nd Amendment notwithstanding the fact that owning an AK-47 has been illegal in United States for ages.

And Winston points out that I mis-identified the tpye of gun.

In a way, this illustrates my way of thinking. With gamblling, I mentioned that I have no idea how to place an online bet and I do not intend to find out. With guns, I do not know the difference between an AK-47 and an AK-15 and I do not intend to find out. When I was 12, I was given a 16 guage shotgun and I was taught how to use it safely for hunting pheasants. I used it to hunt pheasants. A guy hiding in a golf course with a gun, a scope and a camera is not hunting pheasants, no matter with an AK-whatever or just a whatever.

As to "Dang it! Missed again", No No No. I do not want Trump shot. I do not want to joke about Trump being shot. At the high school I went to there were some tough and unfriendly guys. I never for a moment considered using my shotgun to solve such problems. No. Just No.

[hrothgar]

the following came across y desk this afternoon

https://rajivsethi.s...ediction-market

[hrothgar]

shyams, on 2024-September-17, 08:37, said:

Instead we get this oblique one, wherein the talk is about 2nd Amendment notwithstanding the fact that owning an AK-47 has been illegal in United States for ages.

And once again, Shyams weighs in with a bunch of ignorant twaddle

Gun laws in the US vary dramatically by state, however

1. Semi automatic AK-47's are perfectly legal in most states (once upon a time there were important restrictions)
2. Full automatic AK-47's are legal in some states (though its often quite expensive to get the necessary permissions)

[shyams]

hrothgar, on 2024-September-17, 15:01, said:

And once again, Shyams weighs in with a bunch of ignorant twaddle

Gun laws in the US vary dramatically by state, however

1. Semi automatic AK-47's are perfectly legal in most states (once upon a time there were important restrictions)
2. Full automatic AK-47's are legal in some states (though its often quite expensive to get the necessary permissions)

Thank you for getting triggered everytime I post. It's almost become Pavlovian nowadays.

hrothgar, on 2024-September-17, 06:07, said:

Why would you ever trust a betting site?
These market are incredibly thin and very vulnerable to manipulation.

The world if full of idiots who are happy to spend $$$ to signal their opinions.

Look at the price of meme stocks like AMC or GameStop
Or, if you prefer a more recent example, the DJT "SPAC"

Keynes said it best

"Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits – of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities."

The above, for example, has clear flaws in your argument but I don't bother contradicting because it is irrelevant to the discussion of US politics.

[hrothgar]

shyams, on 2024-September-17, 15:32, said:

Thank you for getting triggered everytime I post. It's almost become Pavlovian nowadays.

So, what you're claiming is that you deliberately make yourself look like an idiot in order to try and provoke others to respond?

Probably time for another quote...

"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be"- Kurt Vonnegut

[shyams]

hrothgar, on 2024-September-17, 15:48, said:

So, what you're claiming is that you deliberately make yourself look like an idiot in order to try and provoke others to respond?

Probably time for another quote...

"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be"- Kurt Vonnegut

I did not claim that.

I merely pointed out that you definitely crawl out of the woodwork everytime I post; as if by sheer force of habit.

You, by carefully removing the essence of my post ("Dang it, missed again") or the other relevant part (that gun control discussions is relatively irrelevant when it comes to attempted political assassinations) emphasised only that portion which I got obviously wrong (that there are semi-automatic AKs and that they are legal).

So yes, it was purely reflexive of you to try ...

[hrothgar]

shyams, on 2024-September-17, 16:05, said:

I did not claim that.

I merely pointed out that you definitely crawl out of the woodwork everytime I post; as if by sheer force of habit.
..

You posted on 2024-August-31, 23:42, I didn't respond to that
You posted on posted 2024-September-09, 10:50, I did't respond to that

All sorts of other examples are readily available, but that would require going back more than one page in this discussion...

Silly put, I don't reflectively respond to every post that you make
Just the really really stupid ones

Admitted, there are a lot of these so it might FEEL like I respond every time that you post...

I don't

I simply wait until there you provide yet another opportunity to point out your incompetence....

[shyams]

hrothgar, on 2024-September-17, 16:55, said:

You posted on 2024-August-31, 23:42, I didn't respond to that
You posted on posted 2024-September-09, 10:50, I did't respond to that

All sorts of other examples are readily available, but that would require going back more than one page in this discussion...

Silly put, I don't reflectively respond to every post that you make
Just the really really stupid ones

Admitted, there are a lot of these so it might FEEL like I respond every time that you post...

I don't

I simply wait until there you provide yet another opportunity to point out your incompetence....

LOL your post indicates that you seem to be very concerned about how easily you get triggered.
My guess is that you are trying very hard to convince yourself that you aren't triggered

[johnu]

thepossum, on 2024-September-16, 18:43, said:

More seriously I trust betting sites to be very accurate with odds
2 dollars Trump
1.83 Harris

Betting odds are not designed to accurate predict the outcome of an event. Betting odds are designed to get equivalent amounts of money bet on the various outcomes, so that the bookie doesn't lose money on the bet whichever way the event plays out. Then the bookie can take his vigorish, the cost of making a bet, to the bank for a steady income.

If too much money is bet on one side of a wager, than the odds will be adjusted to get more money bet on the other side.