[eagles123]

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The lead is the Ten of Diamonds

What do you think about the lead? How would you play?

For N/B

Thanks

Eagles

[DavidChinn]

Missing 15 HCP. No heart lead, so likely heart honor with east
So would play for singleton spade king with West

[bravejason]

I see 3 heart losers, a club loser, and a spade loser for the declarer.

I don't see how to avoid the three heart losers. So, for me it comes down to finessing clubs and spades.

I would take the opening lead with the diamond King.
Lead the spade Jack.
Overtake with the Ace if east covers, else let the Jack ride.
Pull the remaining trumps, ending up in my hand.
Lead the club Queen to the Ace.
Overtake with the Ace if west covers, else let the Queen ride.
If the club Queen wins, repeat with the club Jack.
Cash the remaining diamonds and clubs and lead a heart.
After the opponents win their three hearts, the rest are mine.

That's how I would play the hand. My guess is that I would go down with the only question being by how many.

I doubt it would occur to me to play the spade Ace hoping to catch the King as a singleton. I don't know which one offers better odds - play for the singleton king or the finesse?

[WesleyC]

Although this is a definitely a cute hand, putting it in the Novice/Beginner forum is mean! I'd rate it at least advanced (and probably expert once you start considering all the end game options).

Given that West chose to lead the ♦T rather than a top heart, it's very unlikely that he holds the ♥AK. I'd put my money on the heart layout being precisely ♥AQxxx(x) opposite ♥K(x). Once you make that inference, you can work out that West needs both the ♠K and the ♣K to make up his opening bid so taking a spade finesse is destined to fail.

A better alternative is to win the opening lead in hand (retaining he ♦K as an entry for later) and lay down the ♠A. If the ♠K drops singleton, I'd draw trumps, take a club finesse and (hopefully) claim.

However, even if the ♠K isn't singleton, you still have legitimate chances. If LHO has ♠Kx and ♥AQxxxx, you can guess his shape in the minors, strip those minor cards and then exit with a trump. In the ending the opponents will be unable to untangle their 3 heart tricks without giving you a heart trick or a ruff and discard.

Perhaps an even better chance (especially against an inexperienced defender) is to cash out 3 rounds of both minors hoping to put East on lead with the doubleton ♠K if they hold a more common hand like [Kx AQxxx T9x Kxx]. On lead in the ending holding only ♥AQxxx, they need to exit with a small heart to their partner's ♥K in order to beat you, which is a tough play to find.

[eagles123]

Thanks Wesley I hadn't thought that deeply about it to be honest haha, I just made it up to show a beginner relative as I thought it showed a good theme that a new player can learn from.

It's very easy to see what a lead is: for example they lead the Ace, you know they have the King, but it can be very useful also to see what a lead isn't. For example here, West bid Hearts, we are missing the AKQ of hearts and for some reason she doesn't lead hearts! If we think about what's going on, East MUST have a heart honour, because with AKQ or even Ak in hearts West will prefer a heart lead to a diamond lead from a fairly bad suit. As DavidChinn rightly points out, if East has a heart honour then he can't have the King of spades, so we should shun the finesse.

Full (made up hand)

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