[patroclo]

Statistical poll:only one answer
What is your first card played?

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[billw55]

Is this the actual auction?

Assuming so, I lead the ♠J. Although objectively, all three jacks seem like equal choices to me. I'm having a hard time understanding the point of this question.

[Zelandakh]

 billw55, on 2016-September-28, 06:25, said:

Is this the actual auction?

Assuming so, I lead the ♠J. Although objectively, all three jacks seem like equal choices to me. I'm having a hard time understanding the point of this question.

Spades seems to be the least best knave, as partner could have doubled for a spade lead and would have been more likely to open a weak 2♠ with some reasonable holding than any other suit. What would our 2♦ opening have been? That might give a reason for preferring one red suit over the other.

[billw55]

 Zelandakh, on 2016-September-28, 07:08, said:

Spades seems to be the least best knave, as partner could have doubled for a spade lead and would have been more likely to open a weak 2♠ with some reasonable holding than any other suit.

Interesting, this is blind spot for me. I might reason that on this auction (if correct), it seems unlikely that partner would want to direct any lead. If he has an AK, or two aces, or an AQ over a king in dummy, declarer is bonkers in all cases. Although, perhaps I might as well allow for that if I am not doing anything else anyway.

Then again, declarer might hold something like

A
AKQ
AKQxxx
AKQ

in which case a spade is necessary and partner indeed would have doubled for it holding ♠KQ. Although probably not holding only the king, when it is equally necessary.

[JonnyQuest]

I lead . . . drum roll . . .

the JACK!

[johnu]

 JonnyQuest, on 2016-September-28, 11:30, said:

I lead . . . drum roll . . .

the JACK!

I lead a 4.

[johnu]

 Zelandakh, on 2016-September-28, 07:08, said:

Spades seems to be the least best knave, as partner could have doubled for a spade lead and would have been more likely to open a weak 2♠ with some reasonable holding than any other suit. What would our 2♦ opening have been? That might give a reason for preferring one red suit over the other.

I assume that the OP just faked the auction so the given hand is on lead. I also wouldn't assume that a weak 2♠ is more or less likely than 2♥ (or 2♦ assuming that was also a weak 2)

[barmar]

 johnu, on 2016-September-28, 12:05, said:

I assume that the OP just faked the auction so the given hand is on lead. I also wouldn't assume that a weak 2♠ is more or less likely than 2♥ (or 2♦ assuming that was also a weak 2)

I think Zel's thinking was that people tend to be more aggressive with 2♠ bids than other weak 2s because it preempts the entire 2 level. So if partner had ♠KQxxx he might have bid, but not with the same holding in other suits. Since he didn't bid it, he's less likely to hold this.

[johnu]

 billw55, on 2016-September-28, 10:06, said:

...
in which case a spade is necessary and partner indeed would have doubled for it holding ♠KQ. Although probably not holding only the king, when it is equally necessary.

Who knows what the bidding was. The standard on BBO forum is to only show the final contract on play problems. Maybe the OP will confirm that declared opened the bidding with 6NT. I assume that they didn't. I don't know why you would assume that partner would have doubled with probably just the ♠KQ when 6NT may be unbeatable.

In any case, if someone were going to blast, I would expect 7NT as the choice on your sample hand.

[billw55]

Agree that the one-bid auction is probably not accurate. We can only deal with what we have though. Obviously the auction is essential in a lead problem, often as much as the hand and contract.

[aawk]

Why did west bid 6nt and did not start with 2♣ to see if grand slam was possible.

The only hand to open 6nt which makes sense is a that all suits are closed holding a double stopper and 3 aces.

For example a hand like AK/KQJ/AKQ/AKQJT or AK/AK/AK/KQJT9xx (or similair type of hands) so if partner holds a ace he will bid 7nt.

Leading ♣ makes no sense it is most likely west longest suit and what remains is leading a jack.

If west bid 6nt holding 4 aces i would not worry because he did not open 2♣ and the rest of the field is in 6nt aswell or they missed grand slam and any jack lead can be right or wrong.

If partner is holding a ace could the lead be importend?

The chance the dummy is holding a queen in partners ace and west need at least 2 tricks in that suit is verry slim and without any extra information any jack can be right or wrong. If our 2♦ opening would be strong i would lead the jack of ♦.

If in your system a dbl on a 3nt contract (where they asked for majors and the nt opener denied a major) is asking to lead your worst major i would lead the jack of d.

If west 6nt depends on the lead and you guessed wrong so be it. They will be in many other bad or wrong contracts and the lost ground over a lucky slam will be won back soon.

[miamijd]

 patroclo, on 2016-September-28, 05:24, said:

Statistical poll:only one answer
What is your first card played?

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This is kind of a silly question, as you would wait a lifetime and never get this situation. No one simply opens 6NT. Why wouldn't you explore by opening 1C or 2C (depending on your system)?

As it is, it looks like declarer has long clubs. Otherwise, there's no way he has 11+ tricks in his hand. You don't want to lead your stiff club in case declarer has AKQTxxx and dummy a stiff with no entry.

So which Jack do you leae? If your 2D bid isn't a weak 2 (i.e., it's Flannery, Multi, Mini-Roman, etc), I'd try the Jd (partner didn't open 2H or 2S). If a X of 6NT would ask for spades, then I would try a red Jack. If neither of these are true, you have a guess.

So visit the nave and then pick a knave.

Cheers,
Mike

[patroclo]

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[johnu]

 patroclo, on 2016-September-29, 14:31, said:

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LOL, this is why posters should always post the entire auction, even if it doesn't appear to matter, or in this case where it was likely to matter, where it caused the discussion to go entirely off the rails with posters having completely wrong views of declarer's hand.

The obvious disaster lead is when the layout in diamonds, hearts or spades is something like

AQ8x


Kxx


where the lead of the wrong jack allows declarer to pick up the suit without loss.

There was no Stayman try from dummy, so dummy is less likely to have a 4 card major, and more likely to have 4+ diamonds. A club lead is likely to expose partner's club holding, so the choice is hearts or spades for me.

If you played some kind of Lightner slam double asking for a spade lead with spade KQ and an ace, I don't think that is possible since the opponents have at most 28 HCP if that is the case. I'll lead ♥J this time, and ♠J the next time this situation comes up.

[ahydra]

Against 6N by East, North is not on lead.

ahydra

[Phil]

There's a lot to be said for leading a major suit T or 9.

1. You might get the disaster layout above where you just pickled the suit. A middle honor will probably let you survive.

2. More importantly, if you lead the T/9 it will appear like you have club length and declarer might just misguess a suit like q9xx opp ATxx playing you for length.

[Zelandakh]

 patroclo, on 2016-September-29, 14:31, said:

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You have been on BBF long enough by now to know that the auction is relevant information for a lead problem. On this auction, a top heart seems fairly clear to me.

[patroclo]

 Zelandakh, on 2016-September-30, 02:11, said:

You have been on BBF long enough by now to know that the auction is relevant information for a lead problem. On this auction, a top heart seems fairly clear to me.

My aim was to know statistically how many player play h and how many play s.
It was only a curiosity.

[Zelandakh]

 patroclo, on 2016-September-30, 03:28, said:

My aim was to know statistically how many player play h and how many play s.
It was only a curiosity.

Yes, but the results are meaningless without an auction because that affects the decision. In any case I would expect hearts to be more popular than spades generally. Without the 2NT opening (ie the OP) diamonds is actually more appealing than spades for me. And to that you might have to add the "closest to my thumb" group.