[Cyberyeti]

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The contract is bizarrely 2♥x by S after a MI ruling against NS, how many tricks do you think it should be ruled to make (EW actually played 2♠ at the table).

[blackshoe]

How did the bidding go?

[Cyberyeti]

blackshoe, on 2018-February-16, 19:21, said:

How did the bidding go?

N opened 1N-P-P-X-P-P-2♥(not alerted, intended as transfer, agreed as their system)-P-P-2♠.

It was ruled that if 2♥ had correctly been alerted as a transfer, the auction would have gone X-P-P-P. I didn't want to get into whether S was allowed to pass 2♥x (I don't think he is, for me and I suspect for the pair at the table the failure to complete the transfer only shows 2 spades, so xx, AKx, AQxxx, xxx is plausible and could conceivably take only 3 tricks in hearts while making 8 in diamonds) and concentrate on the number of tricks which is why I didn't include it.

[ahydra]

It's too late at night for a full analysis but I would guess -2, making 3H 1D 2C. West has a natural club lead and declarer will want to play trumps from hand, so will have to find a way there, but the defense can just persist with clubs (cashing SAK when required).

ahydra

[Cyberyeti]

ahydra, on 2018-February-17, 06:07, said:

It's too late at night for a full analysis but I would guess -2, making 3H 1D 2C. West has a natural club lead and declarer will want to play trumps from hand, so will have to find a way there, but the defense can just persist with clubs (cashing SAK when required).

ahydra

Declarer can always get out for -1 seeing all the cards, as the defence will be endplayed eventually, but the sort of question is which heart does declarer play if declarer plays ♣AKx and W returns a small one ? or if it comes down to just diamonds left, does declarer play small to the 10 which wins if the J is one side or small to the K which wins if it's the other (given that the A is known to be with the doubler).

[blackshoe]

If not passing 2♥X is a possibility in their methods, what might happen after South doesn't pass (3♦, 3♦X?) should be included in a weighted score. I think a poll is needed here.

[Cyberyeti]

blackshoe, on 2018-February-17, 14:22, said:

If not passing 2♥X is a possibility in their methods, what might happen after South doesn't pass (3♦, 3♦X?) should be included in a weighted score. I think a poll is needed here.

Which is exactly why I didn't want to include the auction, I was purely interested in the assessment of how many tricks 2♥X should be awarded.

[BudH]

Cyberyeti, on 2018-February-16, 18:16, said:

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The contract is bizarrely 2♥x by S after a MI ruling against NS, how many tricks do you think it should be ruled to make (EW actually played 2♠ at the table).

I think six tricks is most likely, and the chance of only five tricks is low enough not to use a weighted average.

[blackshoe]

BudH, on 2018-February-17, 15:43, said:

I think six tricks is most likely, and the chance of only five tricks is low enough not to use a weighted average.

Works for me.

[Cyberyeti]

BudH, on 2018-February-17, 15:43, said:

I think six tricks is most likely, and the chance of only five tricks is low enough not to use a weighted average.

This was what I felt, I objected somewhat to the director's award of 7.