[cherdano]

 mikeh, on 2018-September-05, 00:19, said:

Forcing to game is silly. Bridge is a partnership game, and far too many forum posters seem to think that overbidding shows that they are ‘good’ players. Yes, almost all top players are aggressive but, if you watch them carefully, you’ll see that they are disciplined. If you watch even more carefully, you’ll see that they pick their spots for aggression, based on the auction. Here, for example, once opener bids 4C our hand becomes far stronger than it was at the time of our first call.

Making a fit-jump is absurd. You will generate a minus out of a plus many times. Not only may 4H have zero play, but an intelligent partner will overbid significantly with many hands where slam is hopeless. A fit jump might look like xx AQxx xx KQxxx. Picture poor partner with x Kxxxx AKxx Axx. How could he not use keycard after a fit jump? Yes, hearts may be 2=2 with the Ace onside, but reaching 5H on these hands isn’t what anyone could call good bridge.

I'd play fit jumps much weaker than Mikeh is implying - you don't need values for game if you think 4♥ down 1 might be a good result against 3♠ making, or 5♥X-2 against 4♠ making. It wouldn't occur to me to force to slam with x Kxxxx AKxx Axx.
Instead, he main reason I don't like 4♣ here is that we have so much defense against spade contracts. If partner has ♦Axx we might be contributing three tricks to defense, which, to put it mildly, is not what partner would expect.

[mikestar13]

 The_Badger, on 2018-September-04, 08:16, said:

When South makes an encouraging noise towards slam with 4♣, North's hand with its 3♠s, singleton ♦ and KQ of ♣s looks even better. 4♦ from me is automatic.

Exactly. My take is that North's hand is closer to a key-card ask than to 4♥.

[Winstonm]

I have no problem with any aspect of the bidding until we get past 4C. Once south has indicated some slam interest against a known less-than-game-force hand, the north hand must be re-evaluated in light of the auction. In this auction the north hand could hardly be better other than make the spade J the club J. I feel this hand is a mandatory 4D bid to express the increased playing strength - and over 4S I would continue with 5C.

Of course, this is all assuming that the cue bid from partner does not compel me to respond with a cue bid - a method I truly do not like.

[neilkaz]

North likely felt that his hand was a minimum for 3♥, but now after hearing the bidding it has improved since PD should have the A♣ and also likely just 1 ♠.

Rather than attempting to s/off with 4♥, better to give PD some encouragement with 4♦.

[miamijd]

Personally, I would bid 5C after 4C. But I think 4D Last Train and key-card are also very reasonable. A 4H call is a little conservative, but not totally unreasonable. What I absolutely don't think North should do is to bid 4D as a diamond cue-bid.

First, let's think about what 3H means. The auction 1H-(2S) creates some difficulties. If you raise to 3H with any standard 6-9 raise, then how do you handle a limit raise? You have no bid. So the typical answer with heart support is to have four ranges, roughly as follows:

1. Less than 7 with four-card support or a really great 7 with 3-card support: Pass and bid 3H if partner reopens with a X, as he will often do
2. A really good 7 (can be a bad 7 with four card supp) to 10 or so: 3H
3. 11-14 or so: 4H
4. Good 14+: 3S

North has exactly what I would expect for a 3H bid -- right in the middle. On the plus side, there is four-card support, a good source of tricks with the clubs, and a stiff diamond. On the minus side, there is no trump honor, no first-round control, the J of spades is pure waste, and it would be better if the stiff diamond were a small one, not the J (more potential points for partner).

Now let's think about what kind of hand South has. After (3S) and 4C, South almost certainly has a stiff spade (for their bidding, West should have six and East three), the Ace of clubs, and good hearts. If South has the Ad and the AKQh (possible), then slam ought to be a great bet. If South is missing any of these cards, we probably don't want to be in slam (though if South has 6 hearts, we don't need the Qh).

Is 5H going to be safe? Not necessarily. What if South has
x AKJxx KQxx Axx

Now you will be stuck trying to guess the heart position to avoid off one. So there is certainly some merit in settling for a 4H bid.

Nevertheless, that's about the worst hand I can posit to justify South's bidding, and even there 5H will make more often than not (cash-cater a heart honor and finesse East for the Qh on the second round, and you'll be right well over 60% of the time). So I think 5H will make the overwhelming majority of the time, and some move toward slam is thus safe and warranted.

I see three possibilities: 4D, key-card, and 5C. Let's take them each in turn:

4D: This is fine if it's Last Train. Basically, that would mean you're telling South that you're good enough to be interested in slam, but aren't good enough to be able to bid key-card all on your own and don't have any particular feature you want to emphasize. That's arguably your hand. With first-round control of three suits, a really good six-bagger in hearts, and a stiff spade, South can now trot out key-card. You'll end up in 5H or 6H, depending on whether South wants to gamble a bit with the trump suit.

But if 4D is a cue-bid in diamonds, I don't like it. South is going to get really excited with something like:
void AKxxx KQxx Axxx

I don't think you want to be in 6H here, but if you bid 4D, that's exactly where you're going to wind up.

Key-card (whether 4S or 4NT): This actually has a lot of merit. If South has AKQh and Ad, you belong in 6. Otherwise, you probably want to stop in 5H and should be relatively safe there. When South shows 3, you can ask for the Q, and now South has to judge whether six and the AKJ are as good as the Queen. Tough. You probably end up in 5.

5C: Since you rate to be safe in 5H, I like this call a lot. You show a good source of tricks in clubs, but warn partner that you probably don't have control of diamonds or spades. Aha! That's your hand! Partner has an easy jump to 6H over this bid.

Cheers,
Mike

[Cyberyeti]

 miamijd, on 2018-September-05, 12:41, said:

But if 4D is a cue-bid in diamonds, I don't like it. South is going to get really excited with something like:
void AKxxx KQxx Axxx

I don't think you want to be in 6H here, but if you bid 4D, that's exactly where you're going to wind up.

Cheers,
Mike

Why on earth do you end up in 6♥ it's trivial to diagnose missing an ace and Q♥.

[Winstonm]

 miamijd, on 2018-September-05, 12:41, said:

Personally, I would bid 5C after 4C. But I think 4D Last Train and key-card are also very reasonable. A 4H call is a little conservative, but not totally unreasonable. What I absolutely don't think North should do is to bid 4D as a diamond cue-bid.

First, let's think about what 3H means. The auction 1H-(2S) creates some difficulties. If you raise to 3H with any standard 6-9 raise, then how do you handle a limit raise? You have no bid. So the typical answer with heart support is to have four ranges, roughly as follows:

1. Less than 7 with four-card support or a really great 7 with 3-card support: Pass and bid 3H if partner reopens with a X, as he will often do
2. A really good 7 (can be a bad 7 with four card supp) to 10 or so: 3H
3. 11-14 or so: 4H
4. Good 14+: 3S

North has exactly what I would expect for a 3H bid -- right in the middle. On the plus side, there is four-card support, a good source of tricks with the clubs, and a stiff diamond. On the minus side, there is no trump honor, no first-round control, the J of spades is pure waste, and it would be better if the stiff diamond were a small one, not the J (more potential points for partner).

Now let's think about what kind of hand South has. After (3S) and 4C, South almost certainly has a stiff spade (for their bidding, West should have six and East three), the Ace of clubs, and good hearts. If South has the Ad and the AKQh (possible), then slam ought to be a great bet. If South is missing any of these cards, we probably don't want to be in slam (though if South has 6 hearts, we don't need the Qh).

Is 5H going to be safe? Not necessarily. What if South has
x AKJxx KQxx Axx

Now you will be stuck trying to guess the heart position to avoid off one. So there is certainly some merit in settling for a 4H bid.

Nevertheless, that's about the worst hand I can posit to justify South's bidding, and even there 5H will make more often than not (cash-cater a heart honor and finesse East for the Qh on the second round, and you'll be right well over 60% of the time). So I think 5H will make the overwhelming majority of the time, and some move toward slam is thus safe and warranted.

I see three possibilities: 4D, key-card, and 5C. Let's take them each in turn:

4D: This is fine if it's Last Train. Basically, that would mean you're telling South that you're good enough to be interested in slam, but aren't good enough to be able to bid key-card all on your own and don't have any particular feature you want to emphasize. That's arguably your hand. With first-round control of three suits, a really good six-bagger in hearts, and a stiff spade, South can now trot out key-card. You'll end up in 5H or 6H, depending on whether South wants to gamble a bit with the trump suit.

But if 4D is a cue-bid in diamonds, I don't like it. South is going to get really excited with something like:
void AKxxx KQxx Axxx

I don't think you want to be in 6H here, but if you bid 4D, that's exactly where you're going to wind up.

Key-card (whether 4S or 4NT): This actually has a lot of merit. If South has AKQh and Ad, you belong in 6. Otherwise, you probably want to stop in 5H and should be relatively safe there. When South shows 3, you can ask for the Q, and now South has to judge whether six and the AKJ are as good as the Queen. Tough. You probably end up in 5.

5C: Since you rate to be safe in 5H, I like this call a lot. You show a good source of tricks in clubs, but warn partner that you probably don't have control of diamonds or spades. Aha! That's your hand! Partner has an easy jump to 6H over this bid.

Cheers,
Mike

Not to quibble but I would not be pleased if partner bid 4C with the hand you show: x, AKxxx, KQxx, Axx. Perhaps it is a difference in ideology, but the 3H bid to me is from a contructive 2H raise to a limit raise - and against those hands I'm not thinking slam with the other hand.

[aawk]

North has 7 LTC (loosing trick count) and 4♥ is the bid I would make and south will be hard to stop to reach slam.

In the bid situation given north must bid 4♦ as cue due to his holdings (KQxxx) in ♣.

[ahydra]

 aawk, on 2018-September-05, 18:19, said:

North has 7 LTC (lo[o]sing trick count)

Isn't it 8? (3 in H and S, 1 in C and D)

ahydra

[aawk]

 ahydra, on 2018-September-05, 20:14, said:

Isn't it 8? (3 in H and S, 1 in C and D)

ahydra

For holding a extra trump 1 LTC less therefore 7 LTC

[Tramticket]

 aawk, on 2018-September-05, 21:50, said:

For holding a extra trump 1 LTC less therefore 7 LTC

There are all sorts of adjustments to the raw LTC that people play. Additional trump length can be a positive factor, but this means a 5th trump not a holding of ♥10973. I think that you are trying to value the hand through maths rather than logic. And if you want to make mathematical adjustments to the LTC, what about the principle that you should add a loser for a hand with no aces?

My assessment of the North holding after the auction has started 1♥, (2♠) is that the hand is in the middle of the range for a 3♥ response. In making that judgement, I have counted the HCP and looked at the LTC, but more importantly I have looked at the hand itself in the context of the auction so far and my (incomplete) picture of partner's and opponents' hands.

[msjennifer]

 Tramticket, on 2018-September-06, 00:34, said:

There are all sorts of adjustments to the raw LTC that people play. Additional trump length can be a positive factor, but this means a 5th trump not a holding of ♥10973. I think that you are trying to value the hand through maths rather than logic. And if you want to make mathematical adjustments to the LTC, what about the principle that you should add a loser for a hand with no aces?

My assessment of the North holding after the auction has started 1♥, (2♠) is that the hand is in the middle of the range for a 3♥ response. In making that judgement, I have counted the HCP and looked at the LTC, but more importantly I have looked at the hand itself in the context of the auction so far and my (incomplete) picture of partner's and opponents' hands.

Fully agree with Tramticket.The North hand IS an EIGHT losers hand and I have said the same in my post made earlier.

[aawk]

 Tramticket, on 2018-September-06, 00:34, said:

There are all sorts of adjustments to the raw LTC that people play. Additional trump length can be a positive factor, but this means a 5th trump not a holding of ♥10973. I think that you are trying to value the hand through maths rather than logic. And if you want to make mathematical adjustments to the LTC, what about the principle that you should add a loser for a hand with no aces?

My assessment of the North holding after the auction has started 1♥, (2♠) is that the hand is in the middle of the range for a 3♥ response. In making that judgement, I have counted the HCP and looked at the LTC, but more importantly I have looked at the hand itself in the context of the auction so far and my (incomplete) picture of partner's and opponents' hands.

Correct there are more rules to adjust de LTC like the first control rule, queen rules, trump holdings or double fit rule. but in this case as responder its still 7 LTC in my book.

[Cyberyeti]

 aawk, on 2018-September-06, 07:50, said:

Correct there are more rules to adjust de LTC like the first control rule, queen rules, trump holdings or double fit rule. but in this case as responder its still 7 LTC in my book.

Nowhere close, it's a not special 8 loser hand, one queen (although well placed), no aces, nowhere close to 7 unless partner has shown length in clubs or a 6th heart.

[mr1303_2]

Thanks all for the responses. I was South here, and thought about trying again over 4H, but felt that partner could be very minimum for 3H here, and I've seen partner have waste paper in spades and clubs.

Fwiw partner felt his hand was too Jacksy to co-operate.

[Cyberyeti]

 mr1303_2, on 2018-September-06, 09:38, said:

Thanks all for the responses. I was South here, and thought about trying again over 4H, but felt that partner could be very minimum for 3H here, and I've seen partner have waste paper in spades and clubs.

Fwiw partner felt his hand was too Jacksy to co-operate.

Partner should be cooperating if both jacks were small ones.

[bluechip10]

 mr1303_2, on 2018-September-04, 04:15, said:

---

The excellent fit in clubs and the diamond shortage made this slam virtually a lay down, and the trump lead make all 13 tricks easy.

But who should do something different?

South. First, South knows that North has hearts and points and distribution (if lacking in points). What does South need from North for a decent slam bid? K of clubs or the ace of spades. K of diamonds or a stiff. Hearts look pretty good. Well, know that North may actually have all, making a grand slam possible. I would ask for aces as South. Then Kings. End upin 6 hearts.

[Cyberyeti]

 bluechip10, on 2018-September-06, 13:39, said:

South. First, South knows that North has hearts and points and distribution (if lacking in points). What does South need from North for a decent slam bid? K of clubs or the ace of spades. K of diamonds or a stiff. Hearts look pretty good. Well, know that North may actually have all, making a grand slam possible. I would ask for aces as South. Then Kings. End upin 6 hearts.

And dummy will be Jxx, Qxxx, xxx, KQx

[Lovera]

 mr1303_2, on 2018-September-04, 04:15, said:

---

The excellent fit in clubs and the diamond shortage made this slam virtually a lay down, and the trump lead make all 13 tricks easy.

But who should do something different?

The bid of 3♥ of N is correct (9 points) but after 2 ♠ before and 3 ♠ after by E N knows that the defense has nine spades and therefore S has all the remaining points and a 5-4-3-1 or a 6-3-3-1 hand with at least two cards in ♣ that bring them into the slam zone. Therefore it is mandatory to declare 4 ♦ to force the bidding.(Lovera)

[mw64ahw]

3♥ for me is pre-emptive bearing in mind the vulnerability.
So 3♦ would be my bid showing a mixed raise with enough playing strength for 3♥ opposite an expected minimum.
After 4♣ and with no keycards/Q♥ I'm struggling to bid anything other than 4♥ despite knowing we have enough playing strength in theory for a slam.
Its then up to South to show 4 keycards with 4♠ (playing Kickbo) and North shows K♣ (unlikely to have Q♥ as I would be bidding the slam directly)
South then has the choice of of 5/6♥