thepossum, on 2018-November-05, 07:00, said:
On same topic. Another hand where I should have bid 4S over 4H but didn't. Sadly both contracts make here and if you are lucky 4S is doubled. Even more sadly I tried to make the decision using LTT instead of my brain and ignored vulnerability
If I get this right there are 18 total tricks plus adjustment for singletons.
If both sides can make 4M, there must be at least 10+10=20 total tricks.
Adjustment for singletons?
thepossum, on 2018-November-05, 07:00, said:
I'm not sure about best defence but I think 4S makes and 4H+1.
NS can make 11 tricks in spades by finessing diamonds through West.
If NS play in spades (on a 9-card fit) and EW in hearts (on an 8-card fit), then there are only 9+8=17 total trumps but 11+11=22 total tricks, so LoTT is off by no less than 5 total tricks!!! Some of those can be accounted for by the presence of a double double fit, but in order to account for all of them I think we need a much better understanding of how the quality of double fits translates to total tricks.
Note that if EW play in clubs instead of hearts, LoTT is "only" off by 3 total tricks. And those can be accounted for by the presence of a double double fit (surely worth 2+ total tricks) and the absence of cards that only contribute on defence (surely worth 1+ total tricks).