[manudude03]

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MPs scoring, partner had a senior moment, but now you get to play through this. You get the ♦T lead, plan the play.

[mikeh]

we don't need to make this contract, since the opps have a minimum of 3 diamonds, 2H and a spade and very real chances of at least one additional trick in each of spades and hearts (LHO has the heart J, and we were leading a spade so that if RHO has an honour, even if LHO has one, declarer will play low and the Ace will beat the air). It isn't clear whether we need to aim for 7 tricks or if 6 will be enough.

I win the diamond Ace....no way RHO doesn't have a heart entry, since LHO would almost surely lead a top heart from the AK, so no point ducking.


Anyway, these hands are impossible to plan with certainty, since one may have to change horses in mid-stream. Having said that, I see no benefit from ducking this diamond. RHO rates, very strongly, to hold a top heart, since LHO would probably lead one from AK or AKJ. Thus RHO has an entry.

Meanwhile, let's see what happens in clubs. On the auction, I think clubs 3-3 is a greater likelihood than the a priori odds suggest (assuming that the opps don't play support redoubles, so hearts may be 4-3).

Plus, if clubs are 4-2, it is possible that the short club will be ruffing with a useful (eventually) trump.

If clubs break, I may even make this silly contract, tho I don't expect to do so. I am definitely not going -150 and have a good chance of -50.

I see no reason not to play the last club and ditch a heart (not a diamond) should RHO pitch or ruff with an honour. If he ruffs with the 9, I will pitch anyway.

Where things go from there is up to the defence. In a perfect world, they cash diamonds, on which I pitch my last heart, aiming to score the spade Ace in dummy and ruff a heart, coming down to J108 in spades, and exit an honour. I have 6 tricks in and would be unlucky not to score a 7th.

Obviously things are worse if clubs are 4-2, but I am not going to try to map out the play in that case, partly because I'd have to address who has the club length, and what that implies about the shape around the table. I probably end up needing the spade 9 onside to escape for -100, but not necessarily: for example RHO could be H9x Hxx KQJxx xx and now, having ruffed low, the 9 appears under the Ace and the situation will be easy to read (yes, I am aware that in that case the spade 9 was 'onside' anyway).