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Coronavirus Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it

#1581 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-December-25, 15:09

The point that thepossum makes is that "Seemingly the much touted vaccines have done almost nothing the situation globally".
Is this true?
There is no doubt that vaccines save lives so long as they are taken.
They also prevent spread of disease.
Here is a link to the data from NSW showing the effect of being vaccinated on disease and death (page13).

Quote

Clinical severity and COVID-19 vaccination
The COVID-19 vaccines available in Australia are very effective with evidence showing that people who are fully vaccinated are 70–
95% less likely to get sick with COVID-19 compared with those who are not vaccinated. However, a small proportion of fully vaccinated
people may still get the disease. As the proportion of the population who are vaccinated increases, the numbers of cases who are fully
vaccinated will increase but this does not mean the vaccines are not working.
Of the 4,654 people hospitalised with COVID-19 in the current outbreak, 441 (9%) people were in ICU. Of these, 284 (64.4%) were
unvaccinated, and 70 (15.9%) were partially vaccinated or had a single dose within 14 days. There were 8 (1.8%) fully vaccinated cases
in ICU. For the remaining 79 (17.9%) people in ICU, vaccination status could not be determined, either through interview or searching
the Australian Immunisation Register.


Big Pharma gets things wrong sometimes but so does government.
So long as companies are working within in a strong regulatory framework to balance risk and profit everything should work most of the time.
Problems arise when the political officers believe that they know more about science and public health than people that do.
The outbreak in NSW ATM being a case-in-point.


Thepossum makes the specific point about vaccination and globally.
This is a good point. The failure of wealthy countries to vaccinate (or provide it to) the whole world is generating a massive reservoir where new variants can mutate without interruption.
When it comes to vaccination the world is a Curate's egg - good in parts.


Omicron is demonstrating what happens when you only clean 10% of the swimming pool.


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#1582 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-December-25, 15:49

I’ve tried to stay away from the WC because it contains some very strange points of view and I get unnecessarily riled up by them.

I heard an interesting argument on the radio the other day. The topic was how to engage with science deniers, which would include but not be limited to anti-vaxxers

The argument was that most such people have five characteristics in common. I’m not sure I remember exactly how these were described, but doing the best I can and in no particular order here they are

1. Distrust. General floating distrust of government and experts

2. A propensity to cherry-pick facts. They fix on facts out of context to justify their beliefs

3. A reliance upon fake experts

4. A belief that they are being more ‘scientific’ or objective in their assessment of the issues than the mainstream

5 the belief that science should always speak in absolutes. If there is any error at all, even if corrected, it invalidates everything. Thus the change in mask mandates means that masks are useless. The need for booster shots and the existence of breakthrough infections means that vaccines don’t work

The proponent of this view argued that it’s impossible to change the mind of such a person by relying upon the real facts. They’ve internalized the facts they see as real and are usually aware of and rejecting of any facts that don’t match. I suppose it’s an instance of cognitive dissonance, in which presenting a believer with evidence that their belief is mistaken usually has the paradoxical effect of strengthening their delusion

Their fundamental misunderstanding of the scientific method is also a major hurdle. To those with any understanding at all, it is both obvious and predictable that the approach to the disease would evolve as data and experience increased. It’s also a fact that no vaccine is ever 100% effective and that nobody can predict with any assurance how long the antibody response engenders by a vaccine would persist. Yet these people see the evolution of our understanding of the disease and treatment/prevention as proof that the experts were wrong and thus are still wrong now and will remain wrong in the future.

Add distrust, fueled by listening to fake experts, of pharma and government, and it’s no surprise that pronouncements from pharma and government are rejected and indeed are seen as evidence that the rest of us are sheep.

He suggested engaging the person by making it clear that one respects the person even while rejecting the belief. Then one may ask ‘what evidence would you need in order to change your views?’

He went on to suggest, as I understood him, that the best one can hope for is to plant a seed of doubt

I actually tried this approach with an anti-vaxxer member of my extended family. It didn’t work at all.

So I haven’t tried it since. Maybe I should but perhaps mistakenly I see the olpossums of the world as being truly stupid, which is probably more of a failing on my part than theirs. It is so profoundly frustrating to live in a society in which the vast bulk of the societal and financial consequences of Covid arise from the stubborn stupidity of a minority….of course I’m speaking of the relatively small society of ‘First World’ nations. Stepping back a bit, the bigger problem seems likely to be associated with the abject failure of western nations to supply vaccines to the rest of the world, thus preserving a vast pool of unvaccinated people in whom the virus can mutate.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#1583 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-December-25, 16:45

Nothing worse than unnecessary riling.
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#1584 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2021-December-26, 13:58

View Postmikeh, on 2021-December-25, 15:49, said:

I've tried to stay away from the WC because it contains some very strange points of view and I get unnecessarily riled up by them.

I heard an interesting argument on the radio the other day. The topic was how to engage with science deniers, which would include but not be limited to anti-vaxxers

The argument was that most such people have five characteristics in common. I'm not sure I remember exactly how these were described, but doing the best I can and in no particular order here they are

1. Distrust. General floating distrust of government and experts

2. A propensity to cherry-pick facts. They fix on facts out of context to justify their beliefs

3. A reliance upon fake experts

4. A belief that they are being more 'scientific' or objective in their assessment of the issues than the mainstream

5 the belief that science should always speak in absolutes. If there is any error at all, even if corrected, it invalidates everything. Thus the change in mask mandates means that masks are useless. The need for booster shots and the existence of breakthrough infections means that vaccines don't work

The proponent of this view argued that it's impossible to change the mind of such a person by relying upon the real facts. They've internalized the facts they see as real and are usually aware of and rejecting of any facts that don't match. I suppose it's an instance of cognitive dissonance, in which presenting a believer with evidence that their belief is mistaken usually has the paradoxical effect of strengthening their delusion

Their fundamental misunderstanding of the scientific method is also a major hurdle. To those with any understanding at all, it is both obvious and predictable that the approach to the disease would evolve as data and experience increased. It's also a fact that no vaccine is ever 100% effective and that nobody can predict with any assurance how long the antibody response engenders by a vaccine would persist. Yet these people see the evolution of our understanding of the disease and treatment/prevention as proof that the experts were wrong and thus are still wrong now and will remain wrong in the future.

Add distrust, fueled by listening to fake experts, of pharma and government, and it's no surprise that pronouncements from pharma and government are rejected and indeed are seen as evidence that the rest of us are sheep.

He suggested engaging the person by making it clear that one respects the person even while rejecting the belief. Then one may ask 'what evidence would you need in order to change your views?'

He went on to suggest, as I understood him, that the best one can hope for is to plant a seed of doubt

I actually tried this approach with an anti-vaxxer member of my extended family. It didn't work at all.

So I haven't tried it since. Maybe I should but perhaps mistakenly I see the olpossums of the world as being truly stupid, which is probably more of a failing on my part than theirs. It is so profoundly frustrating to live in a society in which the vast bulk of the societal and financial consequences of Covid arise from the stubborn stupidity of a minority….of course I'm speaking of the relatively small society of 'First World' nations. Stepping back a bit, the bigger problem seems likely to be associated with the abject failure of western nations to supply vaccines to the rest of the world, thus preserving a vast pool of unvaccinated people in whom the virus can mutate.


My thoughts:

I try to be clear. I try to be honest. I acknowledge my limited knowledge about almost everything. We must make choices, and if I never made a choice until I was an expert, I would be paralyzed. Here is a sample from a few posts back: My first two shots were Pfizer. For the booster, my doc said he could give me Moderna immediately and recommended that I take it. I chose to wait a few days and get the Pfizer booster. I did not read research papers, I just chose.

Another example: We saw my younger daughter about 8 days ago for a Christmas celebration. Indoors, not wearing masks but keeping a distance. Yesterday we saw my older daughter. We discussed format beforehand, we stayed outside and we all wore masks. There is pretty good reason to believe none of us have covid. But my grandson heard a week ago that one of his work colleagues had gotten it, and my grandaughter's boyfriend has it. Bothe grandkids have been tested and pronounced virus-free, but e decided we would all be cautious. Also Becky had been going to an exercise class at a gym. She will be exercising in private from now on, but my daughter was happy about being cautious.

We think things through, but we act without conclusive proof. This is life.

So I can tell people how I go about making my choices, they can, if they wish, think about what I said. Sometimes I change my mind after hearing from other people on one topic or another. Possibly sometimes people change their minds after I express myself. My goal is not to change their minds, my goal is to express myself clearly.

The above has to do with individual discussions. I do also believe we sometimes have to set rules as a society. Just about everyone believes that, we disagree about which rules and when.
I have little interest in telling people how to live their lives, but when a pandemic is sweeping the world that is a special case. The idea that we would not force anyone to wear a mask, so that as hospitals are overflowing and many people are dying off we can say "Yes, people are dying but we preserved the fundamental right to go maskless", doesn't work for me. Anyone who knows me knows I am not much into telling others how to live their lives. Exceptions happen. Call it self-preservation, call it social responsibility, call it anything, I probably just call it sensible, we have to deal with what comes at us.
Ken
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#1585 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2021-December-27, 16:10

I think we need to give people some benefit of the doubt, because much of this is very confusing.

I believe in science, and I believe that the vaccines are working, but I still find myself dumbstruck that with almost 75% of Massachusetts residents vaccinated, we're still seeing a surge and hospitals are reaching capacity again. I know that they're mostly unvaccinated, but last year everyone was unvaccinated, yet this surge is just as bad. How can just 25% of the population be straining the healthcare system as badly as 100% were pre-vaccine?

I know that we need to get vaccination rates around 90% before we can be really comfortable, but intuitively it feels like 75% should be enough that we don't need to implement emergency measures like cancelling elective surgeries and bringing in the National Guard to help hospitals.

Is it mainly because omicron is that much more infectious than previous variants? So it's so quickly among the 25% unvaccinated that it's comparable to the previous surges?

If someone was already inclined to distrust the people touting vaccines, it's easy to see how the negative news these days will just reinforce their anti-vax feelings.

#1586 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2021-December-27, 16:39

"The original strain of SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of 2·5, while the delta variant (B.1.617.2) has an R0 of just under 7. Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (London, UK), reckons omicron's R0 could be as high as 10."
Alderaan delenda est
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#1587 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-December-27, 16:51

View Postbarmar, on 2021-December-27, 16:10, said:

I think we need to give people some benefit of the doubt, because much of this is very confusing.

I believe in science, and I believe that the vaccines are working, but I still find myself dumbstruck that with almost 75% of Massachusetts residents vaccinated, we're still seeing a surge and hospitals are reaching capacity again. I know that they're mostly unvaccinated, but last year everyone was unvaccinated, yet this surge is just as bad. How can just 25% of the population be straining the healthcare system as badly as 100% were pre-vaccine?

I know that we need to get vaccination rates around 90% before we can be really comfortable, but intuitively it feels like 75% should be enough that we don't need to implement emergency measures like cancelling elective surgeries and bringing in the National Guard to help hospitals.

Is it mainly because omicron is that much more infectious than previous variants? So it's so quickly among the 25% unvaccinated that it's comparable to the previous surges?

If someone was already inclined to distrust the people touting vaccines, it's easy to see how the negative news these days will just reinforce their anti-vax feelings.

The Guardian, iirc, was where I read that a laboratory test, so possibly not real world representative, showed that omicron multiplies at about 70 x the pace of other variants but, fortunately, in lung tissue far slower…indeed at about 10% of the rate of others


This was thought to be a major reason disease severity seems to be relatively low with omicron while infection appears to be far more likely. It’s also suspected to be part of the reason for relatively frequent breakthrough infections, with relatively low disease severity, amongst vaccinated and previously infected peo0e.

From another, usually reliable source, I heard that omicron cases may double every 2-3 days whereas Delta took about a month. Hence the explosive growth of omicron, from a few cases to the dominant strain, in less than a month.

Similarly, I’ve read that booster shots generate a far higher level of antibodies than do the first two shots combined (and of course those antibodies taper off over time), explaining why the booster is so important. Unfortunately for me, I’m not eligible where I live until (I hope) fairly early in the New Year….I’m hoping for February.
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#1588 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-December-27, 23:27

https://www.theonion...ning-1847370467
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#1589 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2021-December-27, 23:33

Factors that affect severity of illness with viruses are many and varied.
On the host side there is:
  • the amount of virus that you are exposed to
  • the variety of proteins on the surface of your cells that the virus particle uses to access the cell
  • the extent to which you are able to mount an immune response
  • A whole bunch of other factors.



Then there are viral factors - how effectively the virus binds to the receptor.
How effectively the virus can access the the cell after binding (this calls for a separate part of the spike protein).


There is a normal distribution (obviously) in the population for each of these host and pathogen factors.
The effect of vaccination (or inoculation when a live attenuated pathogen is used) is to move the population curve so that on average the burden of disease is reduced.
If you encounter the pathogen you still get an infection even if you are vaccinated.
But you get much less illness depending on the factors listed above.


Vaccination with an effective vaccine regime is clearly the best defence.
Reducing the amount of virus you are exposed to is also helpful.


Another problem is that we still do not know enough about the cell-surface proteins that SARS viruses use to bind to and then enter cells.
The system most affected is the angiotensin system.
Angiotensin II is an 8 amino acid peptide that operates a cell surface receptor to cause (amongst a lot of other things) vasoconstriction and high blood pressure.
Angiotensin II is produced when a membrane bound enzyme called angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) snips it from a larger peptide called angiotensin I.
But, angiotensin I can also be acted on by a completely different enzyme called ACE2.
The big difference is that ACE2 removes a bit more of angiotensin I and you get a 7 amino acid peptide called angiotensin (1-7).
Ang(1-7) has actions that are pretty much the opposite of angiotensin II.


The coronaviruses all bind to ACE2 as the first step to get into the cell.
ACE and ACE2 are both highly concentrated in the lung, heart, kidneys, (parts of the) brain, blood vessels and testes - and lots of other places.
This means that coronaviruses decrease the amount of "good" ACE2 by binding to it and also damage the cells they infect: a double whammy.


As an aside the common antihypertensive drugs that end with -pril (perindopril, lisinopril etc) act on ACE preventing the formation of angiotensin II and thereby lowering blood pressure.
Unfortunately ACE also breaks down a cough inducing peptide called bradykinin. Which is why ~10% of people taking ACE inhibitors develop a cough.
Drugs that end with -artan (eg telmisartan and valsartan) don't have this problem because they act on the angiotensin II receptor. Ang(1-7) works on a different receptor.
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#1590 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-December-28, 19:14

View Postpilowsky, on 2021-December-27, 23:33, said:

Factors that affect severity of illness with viruses are many and varied.
On the host side there is:
  • the amount of virus that you are exposed to
  • the variety of proteins on the surface of your cells that the virus particle uses to access the cell
  • the extent to which you are able to mount an immune response
  • A whole bunch of other factors.



Then there are viral factors - how effectively the virus binds to the receptor.
How effectively the virus can access the the cell after binding (this calls for a separate part of the spike protein).


There is a normal distribution (obviously) in the population for each of these host and pathogen factors.
The effect of vaccination (or inoculation when a live attenuated pathogen is used) is to move the population curve so that on average the burden of disease is reduced.
If you encounter the pathogen you still get an infection even if you are vaccinated.
But you get much less illness depending on the factors listed above.


Vaccination with an effective vaccine regime is clearly the best defence.
Reducing the amount of virus you are exposed to is also helpful.


Another problem is that we still do not know enough about the cell-surface proteins that SARS viruses use to bind to and then enter cells.
The system most affected is the angiotensin system.
Angiotensin II is an 8 amino acid peptide that operates a cell surface receptor to cause (amongst a lot of other things) vasoconstriction and high blood pressure.
Angiotensin II is produced when a membrane bound enzyme called angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) snips it from a larger peptide called angiotensin I.
But, angiotensin I can also be acted on by a completely different enzyme called ACE2.
The big difference is that ACE2 removes a bit more of angiotensin I and you get a 7 amino acid peptide called angiotensin (1-7).
Ang(1-7) has actions that are pretty much the opposite of angiotensin II.


The coronaviruses all bind to ACE2 as the first step to get into the cell.
ACE and ACE2 are both highly concentrated in the lung, heart, kidneys, (parts of the) brain, blood vessels and testes - and lots of other places.
This means that coronaviruses decrease the amount of "good" ACE2 by binding to it and also damage the cells they infect: a double whammy.


As an aside the common antihypertensive drugs that end with -pril (perindopril, lisinopril etc) act on ACE preventing the formation of angiotensin II and thereby lowering blood pressure.
Unfortunately ACE also breaks down a cough inducing peptide called bradykinin. Which is why ~10% of people taking ACE inhibitors develop a cough.
Drugs that end with -artan (eg telmisartan and valsartan) don't have this problem because they act on the angiotensin II receptor. Ang(1-7) works on a different receptor.

Thank you for this post
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#1591 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2021-December-30, 19:14

Alex Jones Claims He’ll ‘Dish All the Dirt’ on Trump in Retaliation for Promoting Vaccines

Quote

Trump has been drawing renewed media coverage lately between his admission of being triple-vaccinated and his vaccine efficacy defense during his interview with Candace Owens. This has been a source of dismay for some of Trump’s most hardcore supporters on the far right, and Jones recently denounced the former president by saying he’s “either completely ignorant” or “the most evil man who has ever lived.”

In his latest show, the InfoWars chief said “we all wish Trump would do the right thing,” but then he claimed to have “the inside baseball on Trump. He doesn’t know what’s going on.” After suggesting “we need to move on” from Trump, Jones suggested that he’ll get Trump’s attention if he decides to “dish all the dirt” he has on the ex-president.

“Maybe I should just dish all the dirt. You know what? I am going to dish it all on Trump next hour,” Jones said. “It’s not to hurt Trump, it’s so people can know how pathetic he is when you think he is playing 4D chess, going to save you and he’s not! He’s not a bad guy, but he doesn’t know what he’s doing.”

In a classic battle between bad breath and body odor, who are you supposed to root for???
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#1592 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2022-January-02, 23:05

Quote

recently denounced the former president by saying he’s “either completely ignorant” or “the most evil man who has ever lived.”

So Alex Jones finally figured out what the rest of us have known for over 5 years.

And why does it have to be one or the other?

#1593 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2022-January-03, 07:56

View Postbarmar, on 2022-January-02, 23:05, said:

So Alex Jones finally figured out what the rest of us have known for over 5 years.

And why does it have to be one or the other?


If we could just get Marjorie Greene in on the battle we could film it as an updated Three Stooges.
Among many other things, Trump-Jones-Greene are an embarrassment to the country. Not one of them should have any serious following.
Enough said. I look forward to seeing them at a great distance through a rear-view mirror.
Ken
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#1594 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2022-January-03, 16:33

Based on his track record I wouldn't count on Alex Jones saying anything useful.
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#1595 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2022-January-05, 19:06

I would like to thank Australia for treating a rich sports star no differently than they would a retired hospice nurse.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." Black Lives Matter. / "I need ammunition, not a ride." Zelensky
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#1596 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2022-January-05, 19:26

View PostWinstonm, on 2022-January-05, 19:06, said:

I would like to thank Australia for treating a rich sports star no differently than they would a retired hospice nurse.


It's hard to work out what's going on. It seems he will suffer the same fate as Pistol and Boo and be deported.
Here's todays news story where it appears that the usually meretricious Morrison is deporting whatsisname.
Meanwhile a seventeen year old has won the world rapid chess championship and a grateful nation presented him with a two-bedroom apartment in Tashkent.
Some countries appreciate mind sports.
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#1597 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2022-January-06, 01:24

In news just to hand two fans of the tennis player gathered to protest.
One had a piano accordion the other had a flag.
They didn't look happy.
https://www.abc.net....-open/100740812

It's redolent of a certain event at the four seasons landscaping.
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#1598 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2022-January-10, 20:22

i have been avoiding this thread for obvious reasons

But seemingly some re too stupid to be more careful who they insult and accuse of not understanding science and bullshit

Seemingly some will never leave their target alone and will their ignorant bullying indefinitely

(some of) You are the ones looking like ignorant fools. No matter what you say and how many times some of you say it does not change anything

Try using any brain you may have occasionally

I don't feel the need to tell the world my credentials. Ad hom is not my thing but I would be one of the professionals called on to explain to many so-called experts what is going on

What else can I add. Some of us are not just professional in every possible way. We are also good kind gentle people. Very smart. Well read. Extremely knowledgeable and extremely respectful by default. But some lose the right to that respect with their constant obnoxious personal attacks
We get badly hurt by such obnoxious personal targeting especially when repeated across forums

This is obviously just directed at those who engage in said obnoxious behaviour

There are also things called defamation, slander, libel etc. There are many ways you can defame someone. This thread is full of slander. I suggest you all be more careful in future
Damaging a professional reputation. A personal reputation for starters

Look it up if you don't understand what defamation means
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#1599 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2022-January-10, 20:48

I only logged on to the Cooler to see what people were saying about the latest court stoush between our Federal government and the world Number 1 Tennis Player :)

Hoping for some entertainment, not unpleasantness

From what I can see they have gotten themselves into something a bind and appear undecided on what to do next; with a very motivated Federal Court judge waiting in the wings observing. That's how it appears. Very interested in respect for his rulings I am sure of that :)


Back to the thread topic. What upsets me most is that I am anti-science, anti-vax, anti-whatever simply for raising what I regard as legitimate questions over the effectiveness of 2 years of mass global pandemic control; possible conflicts with the corporate retail side of health, role of the media over those two years etc

To read ridiculous slurs against either my qualifications, knowledge or understanding of science. Ridiculous. Some of the most egregious anti-scientific/unscientific claptrap comes though media communication of so-called expert scientific findings. I worded that carefully I hope

And being attacked on social media (not so much here) by people who wouldn't have a clue about anything much simply for asking informed questions gets to you after two years
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#1600 User is offline   thepossum 

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Posted 2022-January-11, 16:30

Question to Cooler brains trust

Hopefully relevant

What was the greatest cause of development of antibiotic resistant bacterial infection

Who is behind corner stores all over the world selling individual pills for viral infection

Who is behind pushing antipsychotic meds as sleeping pills in a similar way

Who is behind that

Who is behind the mass sale of unnecessary and wasteful clinical grade PPE

Etc

I'm going to stick my personal and professional neck out, unlike many others who should also, and call out the bullshit

Who is behind major health issues and decisions, individual decisions, being pushed through a global retail model with the help of media, government, international agencies etc

Who was behind the influence trust model where selling of health is done through your ignorant mate on Facebook

I currently have a list of health risks which are being neglected. All anyone cares about is what I mask I wear. When I get my booster. Supermarkets and pharmacies are stripped of important health products. People wasting days traveling round cities looking for unnecessary tests instead of staying home
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