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lead problem

#1 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-March-18, 09:16

MPs.



I wasn't playing so I am making an educated guess as to the auction. Your lead.
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#2 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2021-March-18, 09:53

A
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#3 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2021-March-18, 12:41

Ace clubs for me, too.
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#4 User is online   nige1 

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Posted 2021-March-18, 12:55


AL78 'MPs. I wasn't playing so I am making an educated guess as to the auction. Your lead.'
+++++++++++++++++
I rank
1. K. Another attempt at the Brilliancy Prize :)
2. A. Sensible suggestion by Nullve.
3. 5.
4. K Might save declarer a guess.
5. A

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#5 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-March-19, 04:47

My friend tried the club ace which (very unluckily) turned out bad.



The ace gets ruffed and the diamond losers go away on the established KQ. 12 tricks made, 27% NS.

A diamond, A or K are the leads which don't give anything away (declarer will play for the drop). It is one of those luck based hands where the opening leader has no safe lead from their perspective, and they just have to pick one and hope.
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#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2021-March-19, 05:11

If the stiff K of trumps appears as a possibility in a lead problem it is right disproportionately often. I thought about answering that before you gave the solution :)
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#7 User is offline   Douglas43 

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Posted 2021-March-19, 06:43

I'd have led Ace of Clubs too.
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#8 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2021-March-19, 07:33

View PostAL78, on 2021-March-19, 04:47, said:

It is one of those luck based hands where the opening leader has no safe lead from their perspective, and they just have to pick one and hope.

Did you consider sacrificing against 4 as North? I think LoTT suggests you should have. Worst case scenario for LoTT is that partner has 2344 shape so that there are only 18 total trumps that need to split 10(them)-8(us) for the sacrifice to be lucrative. Here there are even two fewer total tricks (18) than total trumps (20), but they do indeed split 10(them)-8(us).
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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-March-19, 07:52

Iím pretty sure that Bird and Antiguaís would endorse the club Ace lead. Such leads apparently work very well at least on a double dummy basis. FWIW, I think itís clearly the best lead, not seeing the hands

Once again, it is essential, to be a good player, not to let individual hands dissuade one from making normal plays.

Lead the club, get a poor result, and move on. Lead the club next time as well.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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#10 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-March-19, 08:22

View Postnullve, on 2021-March-19, 07:33, said:

Did you consider sacrificing against 4 as North?


I wasn't playing, but I know the North player and I don't think she is up to working out that 5 has a good chance of getting a better score.
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#11 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-March-19, 08:26

View Postmikeh, on 2021-March-19, 07:52, said:

Iím pretty sure that Bird and Antiguaís would endorse the club Ace lead. Such leads apparently work very well at least on a double dummy basis. FWIW, I think itís clearly the best lead, not seeing the hands

Once again, it is essential, to be a good player, not to let individual hands dissuade one from making normal plays.

Lead the club, get a poor result, and move on. Lead the club next time as well.


I'm not falling for the result on one hand influencing me excessively thing, I wasn't playing but when I saw this hand, I wondered what I would have lead and struggled to see I would have done any better. I've had this happen before, when RHO has pre-empted high (four or five level) and I have a couple of aces and no safe lead, I've lead the wrong ace and it gets ruffed and sets up a ton of discards from dummy's now established suit.
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