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I think we have to look at how likely EW would be to lead a heart given the Ace of spades lead and any signal that their partner would make and the sight of dummy.
Then we give them sympathetic weighting.
To clarify matters - do we treat them as being non-offending at the same time? If so then it looks like we would have to weigh as follows:
NS: 6S X (probability of not a heart switch sympathetically weighted) + 6S-1 X (probability of a heart switch sympathetically weighted)
EW: 6S-1 X(probability of a heart switch sympathetically weighted) + 6S X (probability of not a heart switch sympathetically weighted)
However if the law is that the actions of the other pair are what happened at the table then
NS get 6S X probability of a heart being banned (synpathetically weighted) + 6X-1 X probability of another suit being banned (and this could include any of the other denominations since clubs has not been bid during the legal auction.)
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#21
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Posted 2021-June-21, 16:33
No matter how well you know the laws, there is always something that you'll forget. That is why we have a book.
Get the facts. No matter what people say, get the facts from both sides BEFORE you make a ruling or leave the table.
Remember - just because a TD is called for one possible infraction, it does not mean that there are no others.
In a judgement case - always refer to other TDs and discuss the situation until they agree your decision is correct.
The hardest rulings are inevitably as a result of failure of being called at the correct time. ALWAYS penalize both sides if this happens.
Get the facts. No matter what people say, get the facts from both sides BEFORE you make a ruling or leave the table.
Remember - just because a TD is called for one possible infraction, it does not mean that there are no others.
In a judgement case - always refer to other TDs and discuss the situation until they agree your decision is correct.
The hardest rulings are inevitably as a result of failure of being called at the correct time. ALWAYS penalize both sides if this happens.