[AL78]

Common MP problem where I think I am not good enough to work out whether it is worth risking an overtrick to gain an overtrick:

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♠Q led overtaken and a spade returned to my king. I cash four rounds of clubs, north discarding diamonds on the third and fourth round, South discarding a spade. Three rounds of hearts reveals North started with four, South discarding a diamond. I play a diamond to the ace all following then a diamond from dummy North follows. Do you play the jack or the king?

[DavidKok]

I'm terrible at these things but I'll bite anyway.

My first instinct is to play North for a 2=4=5=2, which means putting in the jack. If South has the queen they pitched a diamond from Qxx on the third heart, and started with a 5=2=3=3 distribution. With that shape they probably need to hope that North has the ♦K to get in and return a spade for the remaining tricks. On that layout pitching a diamond is risky as it lets you pick up the suit for four tricks with the king in hand, making 12. Also defenders have a habit of pitching from their 5 card suit first, if North is looking at a 3=4=4=2 shape (giving South the queen of diamonds) it can't have been better than ♠Axx, ♥Jxxx, ♦Txxx, ♣xx so there's not much reason to hold on to the spade, either partner has an entry and can run the suit or partner doesn't.

As for the matchpoint odds: I expect the field to find 3NT and cash three hearts, two diamonds, four clubs and make a spade (either from the lead or during the play), so the betting odds are simply 50:50. We should take the line that has the highest chance of making extra tricks. It is worth pointing out that if we get this right we will have 12 tricks, unless I miscounted. So we are risking going 3NT= (making 4 clubs, 1 diamond, 3 hearts and a spade) for 3NT+3 (4 clubs, 4 diamonds, 3 hearts and a spade). Hold up, that's not right. If we put up the king we always have our 10th, and still make 12 if South had the queen. These odds are more complicated and I'm recovering from a cold, I'm bowing out here.

[fuzzyquack]

You should also mention a possibility of cashing your top tricks ending in dummy, cashing ♦A, and playing ♠T. It loses against five ♦s with North, but I see it as the best percentage matchpoint play. North must play a very deep game to throw two ♦ from Qxxxx or Qxxx and 1462 is impossible

[mikeh]

I think it was the late Ed Manfield who wrote a BW article entitled The Idle Fifth, all about both the tendency of the vast majority of defenders to make their first pitch from a five card suit and the reasons why (a) declarers can take advantage of this and (b) why it’s often a bad idea, especially when one can see, as defender, the need to make multiple pitches.

Relatively few bridge players ever subscribed to The Bridge World, which may explain why most defenders still make their first pitch from a 5 card suit.

More importantly, if north is 2=4=5=2, he had no choice. He was squeezed! He has to keep 4 hearts.

Meanwhile, what is south doing? If north is 2=4=5=2 then south is 6=2=2=3.

A diamond pitch makes no sense: he knows the spade situation and, if he is this shape, he has no hope of an entry, so why not defend as if he has Qx in diamonds (where he has an entry if you get greedy).

So maybe north is 3=4=4=2 and south 5=2=3=3?

A very good south player might be concerned that he’s going to be endplayed if he pitches a second spade from QJ9xx xx Qxx xxx and so he’s creating a trap for you. But doing so risks a zero if you cash the diamond King….and if you have Kxxx, his pitching from Qxx while his partner pitched twice from Jxxx is going to be very embarrassing…you take 4 tricks from Ax opposite Kxxx.

Against your typical club level player, I’d never assume that south is good enough to foresee and take steps to avoid the endplay. Note that to play otherwise requires assuming that south could see the endplay, be willing to risk a zero in an effort to get a top, and respect your game enough to think that you’d likely play for the endplay! Occam’s razor suggests that any solution that requires multiple assumptions is less likely to be valid than one that requires fewer.

Here, if north is 2=4=5=2, he has no choice. With 3=4=4=2 he could have pitched a spade (bear in mind that if he holds Qxxx or Qxxxx in diamonds, he may hope his partner has Jx(x), since declarer has 12-14, thus can easily have Kxxx in diamonds). He can come down to Qxx from Qxxx because he should have declarer’s shape counted and he might feel he needs to keep a spade. Meanwhile, south is 5=2=3=3 and I definitely wouldn’t assume he’s good enough to pitch a diamond from that (or willing to risk a zero to do so)

All of this is why I finesse the diamond. If south wins, I’ll compliment him on his tough defence

Btw, if you notice declarers taking as long at the table, to make a play, it may be because they’re doing all the thinking that I just recited.

[AL78]

Thanks Mike. I'm afraid after a full day at work plus commute I am not up to analysis of that depth at the table (especially when I am directing as well), so I wussed out and cashed the top tricks. North held the ♦Q so the finesse works.