Posted 2024-January-28, 17:46
Late to the thread
Firstly, I agree 100% with 1D. Opening a 15-17 1N is a very bad bid, imo.
High card points, on the 4321 scale (or any other metric one uses based on notional values assigned to specific cards) is merely an approximation of the trick taking ability of the hand, and must be adjusted and revised (up or down) both before the bidding starts and afterwards.
Before it starts, look at what the honours are, because 4321 undervalues aces and kings and overvalues queens and jacks.
Look where they are…in length…upgrade….shortness…consider downgrading ( but Qx gets downgraded more than does Kx or Ax).
Are any combined? Combined honours should be upgraded…again, something like QJxx isn’t as upgradable as KJxx.
Do we have got texture? Texture is 10s and 9s (to a lesser degree than 10s). Even 8 s can be useful, especially in conjunction wit 10s and 9s.
Consider our diamonds. Give partner, for the sake of illustration, Jx.
Opposite AQ432, Jx helps but not much. We’re never taking 5 tricks and aren’t favourite to even take 4. Change our 4 to the 10…now we have an almost 20% chance of five tricks and will almost always mp take 4.
Give partner 98x…again, our AQ10x is more useful than would be AQ432.
Even in our short suits, the spots matter. Say our clubs were A32 instead of A109. Give partner Jx. Opposite Axx, if the opps attack that suit (bear in mind that we have no idea how the auction will go or that, here, they have spades), we almost never take two tricks (an opp would need to lead low from KQx(x) etc), but when we have A10x, we usually have two stoppers and with A109 we can usually establish two tricks even if they don’t lead the suit.
So while we have ‘17’ hcp, we also have three aces and a king! That alone makes this hand at the extreme upper end of the range even if we were 4333.
Add the fifth diamond…by itself that’s a potential upgrade…make it AQ10xx and it’s a sin not to upgrade out of 1N….and I haven’t yet got to our other great spot cards.
This isn’t a 2N opening bid even if you play 2N as a good 19-21….but it far…far…too strong for 1N.
Second point: what to bid over 3S
3N has some attraction if one doesn’t think too much about the helpful opponents. On this auction there is a high probability that partner has two spades…if he had a stiff, one of the opps might have bid more. If he has three, RHO likely wouldn’t have raised
If he has two…then unless he holds the improbable ace, we need to run 8 winners in the other suits after a spade lead and likely 9 if they don’t lead spades (yes, I now know partner has Qx but that’s against the odds and we can’t assume that when we have to decide over 3S)
Thus 3N is a huge gamble
Otoh , it’s not at all unusual for partner to,hold more than 4 hearts…a 3H bid over 2S is, in practice even if not by agreement, game force.
Plus since we’re assuming a doubleton spade, they’re going to struggle to tap us even in a 4-3 fit.
If I had to bid, it would 100% be 4H.
Do I have to bid?
Yes. With a minimum, I’d happily pass but I have a hand I correctly, imo, valued as 18-19. Yes, the spade holding isn’t worth as much as when I’d opened, but we surely have the high card values for game somewhere, and I can’t expect partner to reopen. I have too much.
How about double? No experienced players use this as penalty. It’s a DSIP bid, which can sometimes backfire spectacularly. It denies any reasonably clear action, and partner is definitely allowed to pass with no decent fit.
Different partnerships will likely have different agreements about what a DSIP double of this 3S would look like. However, I doubt many would think this was an example. Especially since we really want to play the contract from our side…often LHO will lay down the spade ace on this auction.
Thus I bid 4H. Yes, I’m so late that I could be accused of basing my choice on. Knowing that partner held six hearts. I’d actually tried to post a comment similar to this yesterday, but forgot to use my trick of posting ‘test’ then editing….without that I just get an error message and I was too annoyed to rewrite last night
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