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I need some help with numbers/stats

#21 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted Today, 16:46

View Postjillybean, on 2026-May-22, 06:07, said:

Thanks, this is the general approach, some are interested in more detail
What are your rules for #2
#3 hopefully partner did make some other bid as we are playing a f1nt


Rules for #2:

3N and 4M are to play, both based on length rather than strength.

2N and 3M are strongly invitational; 3M with a 6 card suit and 2N without.

3lower is game forcing (as is 1H-1N-2S), supposedly a real suit. You may have to lie about 'real suit' if you want to game force on strength but don't have a second suit. (I prefer to put all my lying in 3C, but that requires further artificial sequences.)

2M promises 6. 2lower supposedly promises 4. If you have 6-4 or better, rebid 2M with an absolute minimum and 2lower with a little more.

This leaves all the not-highly-invitational hands that have 5 in the major and no lower 4 card suit. You should lie at the 2 level in your longest minor, clubs if equal. (It's possible to put all the lying into 2C, but that requires further artificial sequences.)
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#22 User is offline   jillybean 

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Posted Today, 17:27

View Postpescetom, on 2026-May-22, 15:44, said:

You can also be playing 2/1 game forcing but 1NT semi-forcing, like most of Europe and a good number of top level pairs.
In which case 1NT will rarely or never have 3=card support.
There are also other ways of revealing a weak 3=card support, such as going through 1M-2 in a 2/1 context.

So 2 is not GF?
"And no matter what methods you play, it is essential, for anyone aspiring to learn to be a good player, to learn the importance of bidding shape properly. MikeH
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
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#23 User is online   thepossum 

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Posted Today, 21:11

Apologies. I am sure nobody is interested inthe following numbers but I do not have the enerrgy to summarise

I was using Beling's bdeal with 10,000 hands and tried to cover South opening in 1st or 2nd seat and West not overcalling or doubling and North having a "forcing" 1NT hand

c= clubs, d = diamonds, h= hearts
and all the shape counts are most of the most likely shapes
shape7plusis anything wiht 7 or more in either minor
there is around 1 percent left over
the reason for heart counts are first that I needed to find a bug but it is an interesting aspect of the 1NT bid

c0: 35 / 10000 = 0.0035 Ań 0.00115764 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0590572
c1: 283 / 10000 = 0.0283 Ań 0.00325057 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.165829
c2: 1157 / 10000 = 0.1157 Ań 0.00626999 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.319865
c3: 2371 / 10000 = 0.2371 Ań 0.00833682 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.425304
c4: 2824 / 10000 = 0.2824 Ań 0.00882418 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.450167
c5: 2024 / 10000 = 0.2024 Ań 0.00787587 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.401789
c6: 985 / 10000 = 0.0985 Ań 0.00584119 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.29799
c7+: 321 / 10000 = 0.0321 Ań 0.00345516 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.176266
d0: 39 / 10000 = 0.0039 Ań 0.00122176 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.0623281
d1: 321 / 10000 = 0.0321 Ań 0.00345516 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.176266
d2: 1133 / 10000 = 0.1133 Ań 0.00621304 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.316959
d3: 2278 / 10000 = 0.2278 Ań 0.00822134 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.419413
d4: 2813 / 10000 = 0.2813 Ań 0.00881372 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.449634
d5: 2123 / 10000 = 0.2123 Ań 0.00801597 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.408936
d6: 971 / 10000 = 0.0971 Ań 0.00580404 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.296094
d7+: 322 / 10000 = 0.0322 Ań 0.00346036 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.176531
h0: 116 / 10000 = 0.0116 Ań 0.00209892 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.107077
h1: 855 / 10000 = 0.0855 Ań 0.0054812 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.279624
h2: 2352 / 10000 = 0.2352 Ań 0.00831368 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.424124
h3: 1995 / 10000 = 0.1995 Ań 0.00783344 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.399625
h4: 2287 / 10000 = 0.2287 Ań 0.00823276 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.419996
h5+: 2395 / 10000 = 0.2395 Ań 0.00836571 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.426778
shape7plus=: 643 / 10000 = 0.0643 Ań 0.00480811 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.245287
shapem15=: 163 / 10000 = 0.0163 Ań 0.00248214 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.126627
shapem16=: 128 / 10000 = 0.0128 Ań 0.00220348 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.112411
shapem24=: 550 / 10000 = 0.055 Ań 0.00446887 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.22798
shapem25=: 616 / 10000 = 0.0616 Ań 0.00471287 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.240428
shapem26=: 548 / 10000 = 0.0548 Ań 0.00446121 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.227589
shapem32=: 260 / 10000 = 0.026 Ań 0.00311937 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.159135
shapem33=: 384 / 10000 = 0.0384 Ań 0.00376672 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.19216
shapem34=: 1228 / 10000 = 0.1228 Ań 0.00643353 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.328207
shapem35=: 1417 / 10000 = 0.1417 Ań 0.00683605 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.348742
shapem36=: 726 / 10000 = 0.0726 Ań 0.00508631 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.259479
shapem44=: 974 / 10000 = 0.0974 Ań 0.00581203 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.296502
shapem45=: 1290 / 10000 = 0.129 Ań 0.00657059 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.3352
shapem46=: 413 / 10000 = 0.0413 Ań 0.00390047 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.198983
shapem55=: 265 / 10000 = 0.0265 Ań 0.00314841 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.160617
shapem56=: 102 / 10000 = 0.0102 Ań 0.00196958 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.100479
shapem66=: 8 / 10000 = 0.0008 Ań 0.000554207 (95% conf.) min: 0 max: 1 sdev: 0.028273
Number of hands dealt: 360163. CPU time usage [sec]: 0.31 (x8 threads).
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