[fred]

Last week I was in Denver, Colorado for an ACBL Regional tournament. I don't go to many Regionals these days, but I went to this one in order to play in something called the District Final of the Grand National Teams (GNT).

For those of you who are not familiar with ACBL, that organization is divided into 24 geographical Districts. Each District qualifies 1 representative team for the National Final of the Grand National Teams that takes place a few days before the ACBL Summer North American Championships each year.

Jlall was on the Texas-based team that won the 2006 GNT (and I was on the Las Vegas-based team that his team defeated in the semi-finals of that event).

Since my regular partner (Brad Moss) lives in a different District than me, I cannot play with him the GNT. But there are a lot of excellent players in my District. During the past few years I have partnered Billy Miller and Marc Jacobus in this event. This year I played for the first time with Fred Hamilton.

The Fred-Fred partnership worked out well and ended up qualifying for the National Final of the GNT

I won a whole bunch of ACBL Masterpoints at this Regional and, according to the ACBL web site, I now have 9998.97 Masterpoints. A player needs 10000 Masterpoints to be considered a "Grand Life Master" - the highest rank in the ACBL.

I actually could care less about Masterpoints, but thought my total was amusing. Maybe I will play some on BBO this week and try to become a Grand Life Master on our site...

Anyways, my partner Fred is 71 years old. He has won several World Championships and is a member of the Bridge Hall of Fame. Fred, a full time pro for many years, has seen a LOT of bridge hands in his life. He is the sort of player who someone like me can really learn a lot from.

Fred undoubtedly has the best table presence of anyone I have ever played with.

I was the dummy (and Fred was the declarer) when this hand was played:

Scoring: IMP

---

I opened 1H in 3rd position. For some reason Fred decided to respond 1S (I never asked him why, but in my view 2H is clear). I raised to 2S (which I also think is clear though many would prefer 2C) and everyone Passed.

Fred received a small club lead. He ducked in dummy and RHO won the 10. RHO returned a diamond. Fred guessed well to duck in hand and LHO won the Queen.

LHO continued with a club spot lower than the one he had led. RHO played the Jack of clubs and Fred ruffed. Since the opponents were playing 3rd/5th leads, it appeared that clubs were 4-4.

Fred tried the King of diamonds, covered by the Ace and ruffed in dummy. He ruffed another club to his hand and cashed the Jack of diamonds (discarding a heart) as RHO followed with the 10 of diamonds. He then led his winning 9 of diamonds and discarded the King of clubs from dummy as RHO ruffed.

RHO exited in hearts and Fred played 3 rounds of the suit, LHO ruffing.

There were only 3 cards left:

Scoring: IMP

---

LHO thought forever and then led the 8 of spades.

How would you play from here?

It is not unusual for me to present declarer play problems in which I provide the first 3 tricks or so and ask "how do you play from here?". A play problem in which everything except the last 3 tricks are provided is unusual

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[Free]

Play the 9 and promote the J

[inquiry]

Do it fred, get "Grand Life Master" playing on BBO.. what a promotional opportunity that provides!!!!

As for the hand, PLAY THE NINE.

Fred has ruffed 2♣, cashed 2♥ and a ♦ plus a ♦ ruff for six tricks. RHO has to have at least QT, but could have AQ or AT of spades plus a club. If WEST wins the ACE and returns a club, Fred ruffs in dummy and claims. If he wins the ACE and continues a spade, fred wins the king and claims. So RHO can't play the ACE. If he has the AQ, he plays the queen, if he had AT he plays the TEN. Note, if EAST has QT, you are toast, as he will cover whatever you play from dummy, to force the king, and the queen looms over the JACK or NINE in dummy so you will not be able to ruff the good heart. So you have to play WEST for Queen or Ten. That means EAST will be AQ or AT.

If he is AT, he will play the TEN, you will win the KING, and that is all. But if he is AQ!!! now you play the NINE. EAST has to play the Queen, you win the king and lead the last diamond. If WEST doesn't ruff, you pitch from dummy -- east has to ruff with the ACE and the JACK is the 8th trick. Or if West ruffs with in with his TEN, you overruff with the JACK. Now when EAST ruffs with the ACE, your last spade is the 13th, and 8th trick.

[inquiry]

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 12:20 PM, said:

inquiry, on May 30 2007, 12:16 PM, said:

If he is AT, he will play the TEN, you will win the KING, and that is all.

unless you play the JACK in which case if east plays the TEN you ruff a heart with the KING and if east plays the ACE on the JACK he is ENDPLAYED.

Basically I think we agree that it comes down to playing EAST for the AT or the AQ. Your post did not seem address the ISSUE of which one EAST was more likely to hold unless I missed it FROM the dizzying CAPS.

Ok... so I guess if play the JACK and EAST has the AT, he can play the TEN, I overlooked I can then play elopement and score my King of spades by ruffing the heart.

So against AT -- on right you have to play the Jack, against AQ on the right the nine. I see no way to separate these. West held either

S-Qxx H-xx D-AQxx C-Qxxx, or S-Txx H-xx D-AQxx C-Qxxx, and EAST held either
S-AQx H-Jxx D-Txx C-AJTx, or S-ATx H-Jxx D-Txx C-AJTx.

I can see no reason why they would have bid any differently with either hand. Nor can I figure out a reason they might have chose an alternative line of play with either hand. So i will stick with my original plan.

[fred]

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 06:37 PM, said:

inquiry, on May 30 2007, 12:37 PM, said:

I can see no reason why they would have bid any differently with either hand. Nor can I figure out a reason they might have chose an alternative line of play with either hand. So i will stick with my original plan.

I think the fact that LHO thought forever before playing the S8 makes him more likely to hold Q8 if you think everything else is equal.

I agree with this and it only took a small % of Fred Hamilton's great table presence to draw the same inference and make the winning play of the Jack of spades at the table.

The main reason I liked this hand so much is because I thought the nature of the guess in the 3-card ending was highly unusual. I am constantly amazed that no matter how many hands I see, there always seem to be new 3 and 4-card endings to be found.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[kenrexford]

It seems to me that Q8 to my left is less likely than 108, because leftie does not know where the honor he does not have may be.

If he has Q8, Fred may be down to ♠K10 ♦7. A spade leave Fred 100% to make the right play. A club back, however, gives Fred a losing option.

Sure, Fred might also have ♠A10 ♦7. However, on that layout nothing works.

What if leftie has 10-8? Fred could have ♠AQ. If that is the case, no lead gains.

Fred could have ♠KQ. Nothing avoids two tricks for Fred.

Fred could have ♠Ax. A club back allows two tricks. After a spade back, Fred can duck whichever honor is played (rightie being tricky of course) for two tricks, again. However, Fred might win and try to pick up the spade Jack en passant, which fails -- a losing option.

Fred could have ♠Qx, remotely, where a spade back is critical.

What about ♠Kx? On a club back, Fred has no option except to ultimately win two tricks. On a spade back, however, rightie could be tricky and stick in the Queen. If Fred again tries for the Jack en passant, oops!

Thus, whereas a spade back from 108 gives many losing options to Fred, the club back gives losing options for Q8. All of this arises from leftie lacking knowledge as to the location of the spade honors not on dummy and not in his hand.

[kenrexford]

Whoops! Misread.

[jdonn]

It seems like LHO shouldn't have a tank in either case. So if you think LHO is 'honest' then it's got to be a Q8 tank. If you think he is a little shifty he would probably play fast from Q8 to not seem suspicious, and try to job you a little with T8.

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 02:14 PM, said:

kenrexford, on May 30 2007, 02:12 PM, said:

I just noticed that the Jack was just identified as the winning play.  It appears, then, that rightie held ♠AQ ♣x.  It appears that rightie did not stick in the ♠Q, allowing Fred to win and then be faced with a guess?

The jack is the winning play if RHO had AT. It is very likely RHO has AT when LHO tanks.

Well, after the re-read, I'm convinced that Fred got lucky, or knew that leftie erred.

[fred]

kenrexford, on May 30 2007, 07:09 PM, said:

If he has Q8, Fred may be down to ♠K10 ♦7. A spade leave Fred 100% to make the right play. A club back, however, gives Fred a losing option.

Interesting post, Ken, but remember that I opened the bidding in 3rd seat and LHO is known the have the AQ of diamonds and almost certainly the Queen of clubs. If he had the Ace of spades as well he would have opened the bidding.

So Fred would never misguess in the 2-card ending after a club return.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 02:19 PM, said:

jdonn, on May 30 2007, 02:16 PM, said:

It seems like LHO shouldn't have a tank in either case.

It is hard to lead a small trump from Qx when looking at J9 in dummy. People have to think before making this play. Especially since playing a club could be the winner if, as ken said, declarer had KT of spades you can give declarer a guess (presumably this was rejected since if declarer had Ax of spades a low spade now just beats the hand, but that would take some time to figure out). You wouldn't consider a ruff sluff if you had T8 of spades.

I cannot imagine leftie playing Fred H for Axxx in spades. As Fred G mentioned, Fred H made a slightly unorthodox bid of 1♠ anyway. This has to be at least a tenace, it would seem (at least K10xx).

[kenrexford]

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 02:23 PM, said:

kenrexford, on May 30 2007, 02:17 PM, said:

Jlall, on May 30 2007, 02:14 PM, said:

kenrexford, on May 30 2007, 02:12 PM, said:

I just noticed that the Jack was just identified as the winning play.  It appears, then, that rightie held ♠AQ ♣x.  It appears that rightie did not stick in the ♠Q, allowing Fred to win and then be faced with a guess?

The jack is the winning play if RHO had AT. It is very likely RHO has AT when LHO tanks.

Well, after the re-read, I'm convinced that Fred got lucky, or knew that leftie erred.

Why? None of your points were valid.

With Q8 of spades LHO would play a low spade and hope declarer misguessed this position (which is possible), as opposed to playing for declarer to misguess after a club return (which is not possible).

On top of freds point that LHO has already passed, If lho did in fact start with Ax of spades he could beat the hand by playing a low spade from Ax always if partner had QT of spades so he would always do that.

What?!?

If Declarer has K10xx in spades, initially, he cannot mis-guess spades with a spade return. The position is 100%.

Sure, leftie could play Fred for Kxxx, as Fred held, where there are all sorts of misguess possibilities. But, who would expect a more likely scenario of a spade suit that does not have a tenace, or does, after a simple raise is rejected?

Plus, on a club back, there is clearly a 50-50 guess (win in dummy, and then lead the stiff Jack at the K10 -- rise or duck).

Your analysis of the play possibilities keeps assuming the actual hand, which is implausible despite its existence, as opposed to the more likely hand that Fred probably should have had. The empathized hand (Fred having two spade honors) leads to completely different options and losing options.

In other words, whereas a spade back from Q8 gives a losing option when Fred has Kxxx, and Fred cannot go wrong on a club back on that layout, a spade back from Q8 cannot cause any problem when Fred has K10xx, but a losing option develops when Fred gets a club back.

So, Fred's play is wrong if you consider rightie's analysis as also an empathetic analysis of Fred's likeliest holding.