[ralph23]

♣♦♥♠

Scoring: IMP

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At these colors, you open a weak 2♥ and North doubles. East passes and South bids 2NT. North raises to 3NT. You are informed upon inquiry after the auction that 2NT shows not holding four spades, and 8-10 HCP, and a balanced hand.

You lead your fourth best ♥ and partner takes the Queen.

At trick 2, partner leads the deuce of ♥ and declarer plays his Ace. It's your play now.

Note: There's no correct answer necessarily, but the question is, how do you support your play with your reasoning?

Note2: "If declarer has the _____, then we are most likely cooked, so I must assume p has that card."

[cherdano]

Spoiler

After thinking about this for 5-10 minutes, I decided to play a high spot in tempo, to "show" my ♠A, so that declarer will take the diamond finesse to my K instead of knocking out partner's ♠A.

[Quantumcat]

The declaring side have a minimum of 27 points, so partner has a maximum of 7 points. He had the ♥Q so he has five points left over, room for an ace and jack.

If he has the diamond ace, declarer has nine tricks if he had nine points with the jack of clubs or eight points but it drops from partner (it will, I'm sure): 4 ♣'s, 4 ♠'s, 1 ♥.

If partner has the ♠A, he can knock it out then have 4 ♣'s, 3 ♠'s, 1 ♦ & 1 ♥.

Declarer may be unsure whether to try for clubs breaking or the diamond finesse. If it was matchpoints he might try the diamond finesse, cause if it works he gets two extra tricks (1 for contract, 1 overtrick) while clubs breaking gives him 1 extra. But he would have to finesse into dangerous me. That would be fifty/fifty down 2 (five ♥'s & 1 ace) or one overtrick, so maybe he wouldn't risk it even at MPs. And it's IMPs, so no way is he ever going to touch the diamond finesse.

Especially since I only had the K in ♥'s, even with the ♣J that's four points, I have to have more points elsewhere, and since he's cooked if I have the ♠A he ignores that case and assumes I have the ♦K.

Thus, no way he touches diamonds. It doesn't matter if partner tries to play one when he gets in with the ♠A cause he'll just take his planned 1 diamond trick and claim his other 8 tricks.

Even if I can convince declarer that clubs are not breaking (I can't see how) he is forced to play for them breaking, cause he has already decided to ignore me having the ♠A cause that dooms him, and if I don't have the ♠A I must have the ♦K and he cannnot finesse it. Even if he is tempted to take it, he can test clubs first, he doesn't care if we cash a club after diamond cause he's down when it loses anyway.

No matter what I do he's going to play to make the contract. I can't see any other possibilities????

Edit: I just read the hidden text: won't that only give him 8 tricks with everything working for him, playing that way?

[ralph23]

Quantumcat, on Aug 4 2007, 07:34 AM, said:

....cause he has already decided to ignore me having the ♠A cause that dooms him, and if I don't have the ♠A I must have the ♦K and he cannnot finesse it.

Do you think you can "talk him into" the idea that you have the ♠Ace and partner has the finessable ♦ King? Should you try?

Remember the question that was asked in the problem?

[markleon]

At this point of the hand, (assuming partner has the spade A), partner knows that I need the diamond A or K. Declarer knows that he has to pick the right suit to play on. So, rather than getting into a game of "spy vs. spy" (I know that he knows that I know...), I'll neither tell the truth nor lie about my entry. I will just play a random middle card and let declarer waste a few brain cells trying to figure out any meaning.

[Quantumcat]

Okay I think I understand now. He can't have 5 diamonds but he might have ♦AT98 in which case he gets four tricks if the finesse works, so enough for his contract. (4♦ 4♣ 1♥) I had assumed only Axxx and they don't break.

If it was 50/50 who had what, maybe he would try the diamond finesse by himself cause that 50% gives him 4 tricks but the 50% of the ♠'s gives only 3. I bet if I tried to show my ♠A he would know exactly what I was trying to do and play my partner for it.

So I agree with the middle card cause then he'll want to go for diamonds.

[ralph23]

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As you see, if declarer knocks out the Ace of ♠, he will win any return (NB - both the bidding and East's play of the deuce at t2 indicate to him that East only started with a doubleton ♥) and will take his 3♠, 4♣, and the two red Aces.

If you give a phony suit preference signal with the King of ♥ at trick 2, he may believe you and try the ♦ finesse. He has a choice of plays after all, and if West has both the ♦King and the ♠Ace, then declarer is obviously cooked. So he must play for these honors to be divided; but how?

If West did have the Spade Ace, would he give a suit preference signal?

After all, the only way East could get the lead in that case is with the Ace of diamonds.

So West would be trying to sell declarer on the idea that
(1) he (West) has the spade Ace and that,
(2) in West's opinion or hope, East has the Ace of ♦ (and declarer the King of ♦ and the Jack of ♣ to make up his 8 points).

Is that a reasonable proposition? After all, if East under this theorty did get the lead with the diamond Ace, what is he going to lead?

East would know as well as all do, that if South had the spade Ace, South would not be playing this way. South would be taking black tricks like crazy and leaving the red suits alone. So what else could East lead at that point, other than a spade to partner's Ace?

Should West play perhaps a LOW ♥ at trick 2? Reverse psychology? .