[Trumpace]

You hold:
xxxxx, xxx, Axx, AT

RHO is dealer (opps are playing sayc) and bidding goes (you and pard are silent)

2C - 2D - 2H - 2S - 2NT - 6C.

What do you lead against the 6C contract?

[Trumpace]

I forgot to add: If possible, please explain your reasoning too.

[ralph23]

Spoiler

Opener has shown a balanced hand (by bidding NT), with a big heart suit. He probably has precisely 2♠ because he did not raise responder's ♠ suit but instead bid NT naturally.

Responder should have a 5-card spade suit for his second call. His jump to 6♣ is a bit bizarre and shows lots of black cards, and probably a diamond void. He doesn't have 3♥ so I think his shape is 5-2-0-6. I think opener is probably 2-5-3-3.

So I will go with this theory and lead a spade, getting rid of partner's singleton spade. When I gain the lead with the Ace of trumps, I'll lead another spade for partner to ruff.

NB If responder has a 6-bagger in spades, then partner is void and will ruff the opening lead. But I must cater to partner's having a stiff spade and therefore can't afford to try to cash my diamond ace. If it gets ruffed, then declarer will play a trump at trick 2, I win my Ace, lead a spade but it's too late now..., declarer wins the Ace of ♠ and partner plays his singleton spade, declarer draws trumps and claims.

[goobers]

I guess I lead a spade and hope partner can ruff the second round of the suit...

I am not brave (foolish?) enough to lead my ace. If it was cashing, then hopefully I will have time later...

[Echognome]

I haven't decided on this one yet. Just some initial thoughts.

If the ♦A is cashing, then it will also be cashing after we cash the ♣A. However, what information are we going to be able to use after cashing the ♣A that will help us in deciding whether the ♦A cashes.

Cashing the ♣A might give away the trump suit entirely if partner has say, Jxx. I don't think this is a great possibility.

So as of now, I'm leading the ♣A, but await other's thoughts.

[vuroth]

Two lines of thougth:

1. Spade, hoping to find partner short. I expect north to be something like 6-6 in the black suits. South bid notrump, so probably isn't void in spades. Maybe partner will be.

2. Ace of diamonds. 6-6 in blacks leaves north with 1 red card at most. If it's a heart singleton, my Ace may be ruffed setting up south's diamonds. If it's a diamond singleton, maybe I need to cash it now, before it goes away on south's heart ace. Hmmmm..

Ace of diamonds seems like it would be right half the time. Partner being out of spades seems a bit more likely than that to me, of the two.

Given the auction, it's also not impossible that partner isn't broke. The ace of diamonds might not be our last chance.

It feels like a bit of a coin toss, but count me down for a spade lead.

V

[Trumpace]

I was hoping to get more responses to this. Anyway, been just a day

[ralph23]

vuroth, on Aug 3 2007, 03:47 PM, said:

6-6 in blacks leaves north with 1 red card at most.

If responder indeed has 6-6 in the blacks and opener has indeed a balanced hand (as his NT bid promised), isn't your partner necessarily void in spades?

NB - The non-barking dog theory - responder jumped to a slam without asking for Aces. Maybe they don't have the methods for this (although most would use 4♣ Gerber over a natural 2NT call by opener), or maybe ... responder is void and therefore ace-asking won't help him.

My only fear in leading a spade is that responder is 5-0-1-7, with a stiff diamond. And that Opener is 2-5-3-3, leaving my partner with both a singleton trump and a singleton spade. Opener will (1) win the opening lead, (2) lead his Ace of hearts and ditch dummy's singleton diamond, then (3) lead a trump, which I will win and try to give partner a spade ruff, but partner can't ruff as he had only one trump to begin with.

But I'm still leading the spade! I judge the chances for this working better than the alternative....

[jdonn]

I am convinced a spade is the best shot. The only real way I think it doesn't work is if RHO is 1444 and spades are 6-1-1 around the table.

[pclayton]

Its very close. I think the ♦A or a spade could both work. It doesn't sound like LHO has heart support, so a ♦ probably cashes. LHO could be 6=2=0=5 however.

A diamond is all or nothing however, and a spade could still allow us to cash a ♦.

[cherdano]

♦A can never be right, ♣A must be better - if the ♦A cashes, you can see that, and if not, you can still hope that spades are 5-6-0-2 around the table. In fact I start to like the lead of the Trumpace.

[Trumpace]

cherdano, on Aug 4 2007, 06:47 PM, said:

<snip> In fact I start to like the lead of the Trumpace.

lol