[cphastrup]

Scoring: IMP

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West North East South

Pass 2NT Pass 3NT
Pass Pass Pass

Lead: ♥2

I asked the kibitzers which line was better - the actual line taken or an alternative one. But there was no response. (Either noone knew, or talking about bridge during these matches is considered blasphemy , so thought I'd better bring it here.)

Maybe my suggestion was influenced by the view of all 4 hands.
What's your plan? And does anyone know which one offers the best chances?

[awm]

Basically two options. I'd pick the one in bold.

(1) Start with the spade finesse. If this wins, you are cold. If it loses another heart comes back, and now you can make if spades are 3-2.

(2) Start with club to king. If this wins or the ace hops, you are cold. If it loses to the ace behind it, then a heart comes back. Now you can combine chances and play for either the club jack falling or the spade finesse.

Line one seems like about 13/16 (10/16 for spade break, plus half the bad breaks).

Line two seems around 27/32 (half for the club ace onside, plus 3/32 for club jack falling combined with club ace off, plus 8/32 for spade finesse with club ace off).

[655321]

I would just take a spade finesse.

Spade finesse wins when K is onside, or spades 3-2:
= 68% + 16% = 84%

Playing a club goes down if you misguess the Ace, the CJ doesn't drop, and the SK is offside:50% * 50% * ~82%+ = 20%+ ie you make 80%- of the time.


Playing the SA at trick 2 gets messy - you may run into entry trouble when K4th spade is onside.

[655321]

D'oh!

Spade finesse loses to Kxxx offside and K singleton offside, Spade Ace only loses to Kxxx offside. And Kxxx onside is not a problem because West must duck the next round, when you can switch to clubs - making 2 spades, 2 hearts, 4 diamonds and a club.

So, ♥K, ♠A, 4 rounds of diamonds pitching a club, spade up.

[the hog]

Club to the K. Basically the line proposed by Adam. Gives you much better chances than just the S hook.

[655321]

The_Hog, on Feb 10 2008, 11:42 PM, said:

Club to the K. Basically the line proposed by Adam. Gives you much better chances than just the S hook.

LOL
Tell me, do you ever play high stakes rubber? If so, where and can I join the game please?

My second line (♥K, ♠A, diamonds, spade) goes down when K fourth spades are offside. (11.3%). When spades are 5-0 offside, we misguess the ♣J say half the time (call that another 1%). In all other cases 3NT is cold, ie 87.7% of the time this line works.

Playing a club to the King makes when the club wins (50%).
When the Ace takes the King and hearts are cleared, you try to drop the ♣J, and make when it falls - call this 19% - which brings you up to 58.5%. If the ♣J hasn't fallen, you need the spade finesse - 50% of the time it works, bringing you up to a grand total of just around 80%.

Relying solely on the spade finesse is 84%. So a club to the king is the worst of the 3 possible lines.

[rwbarton]

awm, on Feb 10 2008, 08:20 PM, said:

Line two seems around 27/32 (half for the club ace onside, plus 3/32 for club jack falling combined with club ace off, plus 8/32 for spade finesse with club ace off).

You can't add 3/32 and 8/32, since those events will both happen 3/64 of the time.

[dburn]

655321, on Feb 11 2008, 01:04 AM, said:

The_Hog, on Feb 10 2008, 11:42 PM, said:

Club to the K. Basically the line proposed by Adam. Gives you much better chances than just the S hook.

LOL
Tell me, do you ever play high stakes rubber? If so, where and can I join the game please?

My second line (♥K, ♠A, diamonds, spade) goes down when K fourth spades are offside. (11.3%). When spades are 5-0 offside, we misguess the ♣J say half the time (call that another 1%). In all other cases 3NT is cold, ie 87.7% of the time this line works.

Playing a club to the King makes when the club wins (50%).
When the Ace takes the King and hearts are cleared, you try to drop the ♣J, and make when it falls - call this 19% - which brings you up to 58.5%. If the ♣J hasn't fallen, you need the spade finesse - 50% of the time it works, bringing you up to a grand total of just around 80%.

Relying solely on the spade finesse is 84%. So a club to the king is the worst of the 3 possible lines.

What leading methods do East-West play? If ♥2 is fourth highest, then spades will effectively never be 5-0 offside, because the opening lead would have been a spade from ♠K10973 rather than a heart from four (unless East is Paul Marston). If East has four spades to the king, he might have led a spade rather than a heart.

If ♥2 is fifth highest, then spades might be 5-0 offside (although this is not very likely). But if West does show out on the first spade, then unless East shows out on the first diamond you should play a club to the queen, intending later to play West for ♣J.

[cphastrup]

Scoring: IMP

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West North East South

Pass 2NT Pass 3NT
Pass Pass Pass

Lead: ♥2

It was Charlie Weed/John Stewart playing against Alfredo Versace/Lorenzo Lauria.
Lauria found the lead of ♥2.

As Dburn took the lead into consideration, I was reminded of the aftertalk at the table, where the players agreed it was a very good lead and a player jokingly said "4th highest from 2nd strongest ". Then Versace asked Lauria which theory it was that made him lead hearts instead of spades, something about not leading from A109, AJ10, or KJ10.
I don't think K109 was mentioned .

Like Dburn said, the lead probably makes it more unlikely that E has spade length and thus the immediate spade finesse seems more attractive. I was indeed influenced by seeing all 4 hands when I thought that leading a club to the king was maybe more attractive . But it seems that I was off percentage wise, too.

[cphastrup]

655321, on Feb 11 2008, 01:04 AM, said:

Playing a club to the King makes when the club wins (50%).
When the Ace takes the King and hearts are cleared, you try to drop the ♣J, and make when it falls - call this 19% - which brings you up to 58.5%. If the ♣J hasn't fallen, you need the spade finesse - 50% of the time it works, bringing you up to a grand total of just around 80%.

Relying solely on the spade finesse is 84%. So a club to the king is the worst of the 3 possible lines.

You didn't take single ♣J or ♣A or a club void on your left into consideration - I don't know if this pushes the percentages significantly.

[655321]

cphastrup, on Feb 11 2008, 11:06 AM, said:

655321, on Feb 11 2008, 01:04 AM, said:

Playing a club to the King makes when the club wins (50%).
When the Ace takes the King and hearts are cleared, you try to drop the ♣J, and make when it falls - call this 19% - which brings you up to 58.5%.  If the ♣J hasn't fallen, you need the spade finesse - 50% of the time it works, bringing you up to a grand total of just around 80%.

Relying solely on the spade finesse is 84%.  So a club to the king is the worst of the 3 possible lines.

You didn't take single ♣J or ♣A or a club void on your left into consideration - I don't know if this pushes the percentages significantly.

No, singleton Ace onside is included in the 50% of the time when the Ace is onside.
Singleton Jack is included in the cases (1/3 of 4-2, and 1/6 of 5-1) where the J comes down.
You are right, I did not include 6-0 clubs with East having 6 (0.75% a priori), but would you lead the ♥2 when you had a club suit of AJ8753?