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Sanity Check

Poll: which club (27 member(s) have cast votes)

which club

  1. 8 (13 votes [48.15%])

    Percentage of vote: 48.15%

  2. 2 (9 votes [33.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

  3. other (5 votes [18.52%])

    Percentage of vote: 18.52%

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#21 User is offline   Lobowolf 

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Posted 2009-January-12, 18:41

If part of the analysis is "nothing can go wrong, because he'll cash a second club anyway," and we want him to cash 2 clubs, but not try to cash the third, then the 4 followed by the 2 makes more sense to me. It probably increases the odds that he'll play the second club, and it probably increases the odds that he doesn't play one if we ever get a hand where we want our attitude signal to apply to his trick 2 action (edit: and play the 8 at trick two on THAT hand), not his trick 3 action.
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#22 User is offline   MFA 

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Posted 2009-January-12, 19:19

Lobowolf, on Jan 12 2009, 07:41 PM, said:

If part of the analysis is "nothing can go wrong, because he'll cash a second club anyway," and we want him to cash 2 clubs, but not try to cash the third, then the 4 followed by the 2 makes more sense to me.  It probably increases the odds that he'll play the second club, ...

Why? I don't see it.

For me it seems that it only increases the odds that he will try to underlead the clubs to get a heart through to his king.
This is a live possibility, since we only need Q + 1 trick to set the contract that way.

I don't use soft middle card signals in obscure situations such as this one. Either I play a high spot or I play a low spot. The middle ones are reserved for highly enlightened situations.
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#23 User is offline   Lobowolf 

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Posted 2009-January-12, 19:40

MFA, on Jan 12 2009, 08:19 PM, said:

Lobowolf, on Jan 12 2009, 07:41 PM, said:

If part of the analysis is "nothing can go wrong, because he'll cash a second club anyway," and we want him to cash 2 clubs, but not try to cash the third, then the 4 followed by the 2 makes more sense to me.  It probably increases the odds that he'll play the second club, ...

Why? I don't see it.

For me it seems that it only increases the odds that he will try to underlead the clubs to get a heart through to his king.
This is a live possibility, since we only need Q + 1 trick to set the contract that way.

I don't use soft middle card signals in obscure situations such as this one. Either I play a high spot or I play a low spot. The middle ones are reserved for highly enlightened situations.

Sorry...I was overly fixated on "continue or shift." I guess the ultimate question is about the utility of "underlead or shift," and underlead is more likely to be useful, so an encouraging card should show the queen.


Edit: Second re-think. The same analysis that you used in response to my post calls into question part of your initial analysis, though. You said you'd discourage because you didn't have a doubleton or the queen. If that means you'd encourage with a doubleton, then you're still running into the problem of partner underleading in that situation.
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#24 User is offline   Lobowolf 

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Posted 2009-January-12, 19:53

So I'm coming back to the first question is, does a low card suggest an underlead (or that an underlead is ok)? If so, we can't encourage with a small doubleton. If a low card doesn't suggest an underlead, then presumably nothing does, so we can never help partner out on the underlead decision, but we can encourage with a doubleton.

It seems like we should encourage with a small doubleton, which in turn implies that the encouraging card shouldn't have implications re: underleading. So I'll go back to the 4, followed by the 2.
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#25 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2009-January-12, 19:57

I agree with MFA. When I give attitude signals, it normally means I don't have certain card(s) in this suit that you asked for rather than I really don't like this suit and I have something else better so please please switch. It can mean that in different situations and of course all of this would also be based on judgement on what cards can be seen in dummy. For example in this one like MFA said, my signal now here and encourage partner to underlead the club to get a heart through to his king based on this dummy.
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#26 User is offline   Lobowolf 

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Posted 2009-January-12, 19:58

andy_h, on Jan 12 2009, 08:57 PM, said:

I agree with MFA. When I give attitude signals, it normally means I don't have certain card(s) in this suit that you asked for rather than I really don't like this suit and I have something else better so please please switch. It can mean that in different situations and of course all of this would also be based on judgement on what cards can be seen in dummy. For example in this one like MFA said, my signal now here and encourage partner to underlead the club to get a heart through to his king based on this dummy.

So what do you play with the 7-2 doubleton?
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IV: ace 333: pot should be game, idk

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#27 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2009-January-12, 21:19

Lobowolf, on Jan 13 2009, 11:58 AM, said:

andy_h, on Jan 12 2009, 08:57 PM, said:

I agree with MFA. When I give attitude signals, it normally means I don't have certain card(s) in this suit that you asked for rather than I really don't like this suit and I have something else better so please please switch. It can mean that in different situations and of course all of this would also be based on judgement on what cards can be seen in dummy. For example in this one like MFA said, my signal now here and encourage partner to underlead the club to get a heart through to his king based on this dummy.

So what do you play with the 7-2 doubleton?

What's my whole hand if I have 72 doubleton?
And isn't partner also aware that in attitude situations (in general), we would encourage with the Q and also a doubleton if we want a ruff?
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#28 User is offline   MFA 

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Posted 2009-January-13, 07:16

Lobowolf, on Jan 12 2009, 08:53 PM, said:

So I'm coming back to the first question is, does a low card suggest an underlead (or that an underlead is ok)?  If so, we can't encourage with a small doubleton.  If a low card doesn't suggest an underlead, then presumably nothing does, so we can never help partner out on the underlead decision, but we can encourage with a doubleton.

You are surely asking the right question, how to distinguish between a doubleton and the Q.

There is no easy answer. We need to estimate what partner will think is the most likely set, based on our cards, dummy and the bidding. It's a very tough judgement call. We usually have to play low and hope partner works it out if either kind of defense is needed.

So it's tempting to try to reduce the problem and give up on, say, the underlead option, and let a small card show a doubleton:

Quote

It seems like we should encourage with a small doubleton, which in turn implies that the encouraging card shouldn't have implications re: underleading.  So I'll go back to the 4, followed by the 2.

But that is fooling oneself, because how does partner know which option you just gave up? If dummy had KQJT9 and xx, surely a small club should now show Q, etc.
It is the exact same judgement call that I have, just neatly disguised as the premises of the problem.

By playing 4-2 you are betting big on partner is agreeing with your premises (that small would be doubleton, not Q) in a very tough situation. If he doesn't, he might underlead.
I'm more lucky, since I discourage and thus avoid the judgement call when it is irrelevant. Partner knows now that I can't stand a club operation.

Had it been a situation where it were critical to decieve partner initially, your plan would have been much better. But it's not. Partner is fine on his own here with my honest signal.
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#29 User is offline   brianshark 

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Posted 2009-January-13, 07:44

If partner was looking to give you a ruff, he might have led the K asking for count. Leading the ace suggests to me he is particularly interested if you have an honour in the suit, either because he led a lone ace, or because he wants to get to your hand for you to lead through declarer.

I think this is a situation where you should tell him what you have, not how to defend.
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