[mtvesuvius]

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The auction isn't awesome, I was North here, and was at a bit of a loss as to how to bid this. We hadn't discussed exclusion and I didn't want to risk anything. My partner declared 6♠ on the ♣4 lead, the 8 came from dummy, 7 from RHO (Standard).

I'll give followups as needed, but plan the play.

[MrAce]

Seems like a hand for our % calculators. But i think at the table, i would play for lefty to have the ♦ A rather than 4-3 ♣ and hope ♥ are 4-3 or 5-2 with 5 on my left or 5-2 with 2 on my left but he doesnt have ♠ 98 i guess. Trying to make 2♣+1♦+1♥+ 8 trumps x ruff.

Other line could be playing on ♥ suit, i am not sure which one is superior though. This line seems to erquire also 4-3 ♥ and 3-2 ♠....

[cherdano]

Leads?

[mtvesuvius]

4th best.

[Mbodell]

I think I'd just play low from hand, ♥A, ruff ♥, finesse ♣Q, cash 3rd club and start the cross ruff.

If someone ruffs the clubs and returns a trump I still have some small chances of ruffing finesse in diamonds and short K hearts with the short trumps.

So I make when clubs are 4-3 (K assumed on side), and hearts are 4-3 or 5-2 onside. And I make occasionally when this isn't true.

[FrancesHinden]

Clubs look very much as if they are 5-2.

I can play for hearts 4-3 (or Kx or Jx) plus spades 3-2 by win the club, ace of hearts and a high ruff, queen of clubs (probably not covered), trump to dummy, heart ruff high, trump to dummy, draw the last trump, concede a heart. This line survives some nasty breaks such as 6-1 clubs if they take an early ruff with the long trump.

Alternatively I can try for Mr Ace's line; the problem is that I have to commit to this by ruffing a heart before starting on diamonds, which I hate. Ace of hearts and a low ruff, king of diamonds-ace-ruff (say), heart ruffed low, queen of diamonds, queen of clubs, diamond ruff low, high cross-ruff. The difficulty is that if the DA is wrong, they win and play a trump and I don't have the entries to set up the diamonds because I had to take an early heart ruff.

I feel the first line is better, but I'll let gnasher (i) work out the odds and (ii) come up with an even better line.

[dellache]

FrancesHinden, on 2011-February-26, 13:57, said:

Clubs look very much as if they are 5-2.

I can play for hearts 4-3 (or Kx or Jx) plus spades 3-2 by win the club, ace of hearts and a high ruff, queen of clubs (probably not covered), trump to dummy, heart ruff high, trump to dummy, draw the last trump, concede a heart. This line survives some nasty breaks such as 6-1 clubs if they take an early ruff with the long trump.

This would also be my line.
You also survive with 4-1 Spades if someone has got ♥KJ stiff, or ♥Kxx (edited).

[MrAce]

FrancesHinden, on 2011-February-26, 13:57, said:

Alternatively I can try for Mr Ace's line; the problem is that I have to commit to this by ruffing a heart before starting on diamonds, which I hate. Ace of hearts and a low ruff, king of diamonds-ace-ruff (say), heart ruffed low, queen of diamonds, queen of clubs, diamond ruff low, high cross-ruff. The difficulty is that if the DA is wrong, they win and play a trump and I don't have the entries to set up the diamonds because I had to take an early heart ruff.

You dont need an early ♥ ruff I said i am trying to make 2♣+1♦.... Anyway, i do not need to duck dummy's ♣ 8 at first trick, i can take it in hand and play ♦K right away.

Still i doubt that makes my line better.

[dellache]

MrAce, on 2011-February-28, 13:16, said:

You dont need an early ♥ ruff I said i am trying to make 2♣+1♦.... Anyway, i do not need to duck dummy's ♣ 8 at first trick, i can take it in hand and play ♦K right away.

Still i doubt that makes my line better.

I think we may try to show that the "Diamond line" is inferior to the "Heart line" this way :

- if you take the Jack of clubs at trick 1 and run the ♦King, you go down if East takes this (he returns a Spade) ;
HENCE the Diamond line needs ♦Ace at least in West's Hand (42% using vacant places : West has 5+ Clubs) + nothing nasty in ♠/♥ ;
HENCE Diamond line is inferior to 40%.

- the Heart line works everytime Hearts and Spades behave (that's also around 42% using basic calculation) and also works with some 4-1 and 5-2 breaks in the Majors.
HENCE Heart line is clearly superior to 40% (probably superior to 50%).

Those are really vague approximations, but imo it shows that it's certainly better to ruff a Heart at trick 2.

[MrAce]

dellache, on 2011-February-28, 14:33, said:

- if you take the Jack of clubs at trick 1 and run the ♦King, you go down if East takes this (he returns a Spade) ;

As i said in my first post, playing on ♥ can be better and i believe your calculations. But i can still survive if lose to ♦ A with KJx ♥ Kxx ♥ KJ ♥