BBO Discussion Forums: Finesse or drop? - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Finesse or drop?

#1 User is offline   Quartic 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 285
  • Joined: 2010-December-19
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:England
  • Interests:Walking, Climbing, Mathematics, Programming, Linux, Reading, Bridge.

Posted 2012-March-14, 19:00



Do you finesse North for the Q or play for the drop?
1

#2 User is offline   Statto 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 636
  • Joined: 2011-December-01
  • Gender:Not Telling
  • Location:UK
  • Interests:Bridge, Poker, but not in conflation.
    Statistics, but not massaged by the media.

Posted 2012-March-14, 19:49

Finesse. South has no reason to lead a stiff with J109x, so their lead doesn't in any way imply anything. But vacant spaces (South with 4 has less space for a 2nd ) I think means it's more likely North has 3 . And North didn't pitch a which may mean they are trying to protect their Qxx (though they should not pitch a regardless).
A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – Albert Einstein
2

#3 User is offline   JLOGIC 

  • 2011 Poster of The Year winner
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,002
  • Joined: 2010-July-08
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2012-March-15, 00:26

View PostStatto, on 2012-March-14, 19:49, said:

Finesse. South has no reason to lead a stiff with J109x, so their lead doesn't in any way imply anything. But vacant spaces (South with 4 has less space for a 2nd ) I think means it's more likely North has 3 . And North didn't pitch a which may mean they are trying to protect their Qxx (though they should not pitch a regardless).


Definitely nailed it with the first 2 sentences.
0

#4 User is offline   BunnyGo 

  • Lamentable Bunny
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,505
  • Joined: 2008-March-01
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Portland, ME

Posted 2012-March-15, 02:04

View PostStatto, on 2012-March-14, 19:49, said:

Finesse. South has no reason to lead a stiff with J109x, so their lead doesn't in any way imply anything. But vacant spaces (South with 4 has less space for a 2nd ) I think means it's more likely North has 3 . And North didn't pitch a which may mean they are trying to protect their Qxx (though they should not pitch a regardless).


And if your partner reams you out by saying, "9 NEVER!" just nod and say, "next hand."
Bridge Personality: 44 44 43 34

Never tell the same lie twice. - Elim Garek on the real moral of "The boy who cried wolf"
0

#5 User is offline   Quartic 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 285
  • Joined: 2010-December-19
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:England
  • Interests:Walking, Climbing, Mathematics, Programming, Linux, Reading, Bridge.

Posted 2012-March-15, 08:19

At the table I played for the drop, though I was tempted to finesse. North did have Qxx, so I went off one instead of making.
0

#6 User is offline   BunnyGo 

  • Lamentable Bunny
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,505
  • Joined: 2008-March-01
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Portland, ME

Posted 2012-March-15, 09:49

View PostQuartic, on 2012-March-15, 08:19, said:

At the table I played for the drop, though I was tempted to finesse. North did have Qxx, so I went off one instead of making.


The difference in odds is close enough that "table feel" is not a bad reason to go anti-percentage.
Bridge Personality: 44 44 43 34

Never tell the same lie twice. - Elim Garek on the real moral of "The boy who cried wolf"
0

#7 User is offline   Quartic 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 285
  • Joined: 2010-December-19
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:England
  • Interests:Walking, Climbing, Mathematics, Programming, Linux, Reading, Bridge.

Posted 2012-March-15, 10:35

View PostBunnyGo, on 2012-March-15, 09:49, said:

The difference in odds is close enough that "table feel" is not a bad reason to go anti-percentage.


Is the finesse still anti-percentage now South has shown up with 4 spades?
0

#8 User is offline   mgoetze 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,942
  • Joined: 2005-January-28
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Cologne, Germany
  • Interests:Sleeping, Eating

Posted 2012-March-15, 11:08

View PostQuartic, on 2012-March-15, 10:35, said:

Is the finesse still anti-percentage now South has shown up with 4 spades?


http://www.rpbridge.net/xsb2.htm

After we've played the ace, LHO has 7 spaces (13-4!s-1!d-1!c), RHO has 10 spaces (13-1!s-1!d-1!c), and there are 2 cards missing.

We get:

25.74% Q 6
25.74% 6 Q
15.44% Q6 -
33.09% - Q6

Low to the Jack wins 25.74% + 33.09% of the time.
Low to the King wins 25.74% + 25.74% of the time.

I'm not sure this is entirely valid - we may only be allowed to gives spaces based on completely known suits (spades). In this case we enter 4 missing cards, 9 spaces for LHO and 12 spaces for RHO. We get

Break Specific Total
2-2   6.62%    39.70%
3-1   4.21%    16.84%
1-3   8.27%    33.08%
4-0   2.11%     2.11%
0-4   8.27%     8.27%

Low to the Jack wins when it started

96  Q5   6.62%
9   Q65  8.27%

Low to the King wins when it started

Q9  65   6.62%
96  Q5   6.62%

The answer to your question, therefore, is "no".
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
    -- Bertrand Russell
0

#9 User is offline   wyman 

  • Redoubling with gusto
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,712
  • Joined: 2009-October-19
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Las Vegas, NV
  • Interests:Math, Bridge, Beer. Often at the same time.

Posted 2012-March-15, 11:54

I think Ben meant that it's ok to play for the drop (anti-percentage) if something at the table gave you a reason to. I don't think he was suggesting that the finesse was anti-%.
"I think maybe so and so was caught cheating but maybe I don't have the names right". Sure, and I think maybe your mother .... Oh yeah, that was someone else maybe. -- kenberg

"...we live off being battle-scarred veterans who manage to hate our opponents slightly more than we hate each other.” -- Hamman, re: Wolff
0

#10 User is offline   nigel_k 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,207
  • Joined: 2009-April-26
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Wellington, NZ

Posted 2012-March-15, 12:34

Also, if clubs are 2-2, North passed with 10 red cards, green against red, including some values as South didn't lead a sequence. We didn't make it particularly easy for him to enter the auction but people often do anyway.
1

#11 User is offline   BunnyGo 

  • Lamentable Bunny
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,505
  • Joined: 2008-March-01
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Portland, ME

Posted 2012-March-15, 23:51

View PostQuartic, on 2012-March-15, 10:35, said:

Is the finesse still anti-percentage now South has shown up with 4 spades?


Sorry I was unclear. The finesse here was the percentage play, and actually I was surprised to see that the drop was 8% better--I thought it'd be less. I was suggesting (as wyman said) that the drop is not so bad that if you think there's a reason (LHO has a twitch or something) to try it, then ok. As long as you know what the "correct" play is.
Bridge Personality: 44 44 43 34

Never tell the same lie twice. - Elim Garek on the real moral of "The boy who cried wolf"
0

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

3 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 3 guests, 0 anonymous users