gwnn, on 2012-May-22, 01:31, said:
Out of pure curiosity, what happens when there are three logical alternatives? Suppose we think there are three calls after some slow action by partner: pass, x and 4S. If partner had not blessed us with the benefits of UI, we judge the three actions had an IMP expectancy of +3 -1, -2 respectively. With the UI it would be +6, -2.6, -3.4 (these numbers are absurd but at least sum up to 0). Must I bid 4S even though double lost the most EV?
Another situation is if instead of -2.6, double is only a -1.2 (and 4S became -4.8), in this case double is still not suggested by the UI, although it improved relative to 4S.
I think in the first case that neither double nor 4
♠ is demonstrably suggested over the other, since without the UI double is slightly better than 4
♠ and with the UI double is slightly better than 4
♠. Even if those are the exact numbers, you're not going to be able to estimate them accurately enough to tell whether the gap between dbl and 4
♠ has increased or decreased.
In your second case double is slightly better than 4
♠ without the UI, but significantly better with the UI, so probably is demonstrably suggested over 4
♠.