[MrAce]

 bd71, on 2012-September-11, 03:41, said:

---

Here's the full hand. A♠ led, then A♦, small♦.

Our (E/W) result: -870 for 2♥X+1

Comments welcome.

And 2 ♠ is cold as well on any lead. Way to go LOTT ! 15 trumps but 17 tricks !

[helene_t]

Are there really 9 tricks for NS? The small ♦ at trick two was a mistake.

[phil_20686]

 helene_t, on 2012-September-11, 05:17, said:

Are there really 9 tricks for NS? The small ♦ at trick two was a mistake.

NS get three clubs, one diamond, and can come to 5 trump tricks by ruffing spades and then end playing west by ruffing the fourth club with a middle heart. Think that works.

[BunnyGo]

 bd71, on 2012-September-11, 03:41, said:

Comments welcome.

Pass is pretty bad. East has exactly what I expected when I picked "bid 2 spades." The main flaws towards passing in my eyes:

1) The heart suit isn't that great, and is under the heart bidder. You can expect 2 tricks in it at most.
2) The rest of your hand is flat with no defense. You can expect your honors to contribute 1 trick, at most.
3) Your partner has a heart void, and 40(54) shape, he'll be doubling with almost any reasonable hand here--doesn't necessarily have aces, could be kings and jacks--can't count on him for 2 tricks defense, let alone the needed 3 or 4, his hand is offensively oriented.

[JLOGIC]

And, as is often the case, north was going to compete to 3H I would imagine

[Codo]

Yes the original hand really prooved beyond doubt how bad a double had been.

---

These hands- for example- could have never ever been bid this way.
If you dislike the idea that the north south hands are so balanced, try a north hand with 2542 opposite 4324. 1543 opposite 5323 is fun in 2 Spade too...

The passers had known before that they will not always reach a good score and I am convinced, that a simulation will show the superiority of 2 spade.
And there is one upside of 2 ♠ nobody mentioned yet: Even if 2 ♥ is down, 2 spade making can be a good score, because surely not anybody will double 2 ♥.(At least some posters here expected more from the East hand- and the BBF is not the most conservative club on this planet

[JLOGIC]

 Codo, on 2012-September-11, 06:52, said:

Yes the original hand really prooved beyond doubt how bad a double had been.

---

These hands- for example- could have never ever been bid this way.
If you dislike the idea that the north south hands are so balanced, try a north hand with 2542 opposite 4324. 1543 opposite 5323 is fun in 2 Spade too...

The passers had known before that they will not always reach a good score and I am convinced, that a simulation will show the superiority of 2 spade.
And there is one upside of 2 ♠ nobody mentioned yet: Even if 2 ♥ is down, 2 spade making can be a good score, because surely not anybody will double 2 ♥.(At least some posters here expected more from the East hand- and the BBF is not the most conservative club on this planet

And what is a likely defense on this hand? No doubt on a high spade lead you will all have a way to signal that you want partner to underlead to your queen but that you don't have a doubleton that wants a ruff. If you lead a high spade and you encourage though, and you are not on the ball, you might think "well partner has the queen or a doubleton...I will play king of spades spade, either way is good since I either tap declarer or give my partner a ruff while putting him in for a diamond through."

And after that, the hand is just over, in utterly predictable fashion since you have no trump spots other than the ten, and 5332.

On top of that, some opps might choose to compete to 3H over 2H with 2 small spades and pretty good trumps/hand.

At trick 2 after a spade lead east should find a club shift. But how many people after leading a high spade and seeing encouragement from partner are honestly not continuing king and a spade? A club shift instead is a very strong play.

This is giving you your best case scenario that the opponents are 3-3 in diamonds, partner has a good lead that doesn't blow a trick (which will often not be the case), and we have an entry, and the DK is on for us, and dummy has no doubleton. You still have to defend it pretty damn well to beat 2H on a hand that many would compete to 3H with. WD.

[gszes]

i realize this is after the fact but the principle is the same ---

when you are IN FRONT of declarer the quality of your trumps
needs to be significantly stronger than if u are BEHIND declarer.
This is especially true when you are virtually certain pard is void
in their trump suit. Declarer has a lot of advantages and knowing
about a poor trump break may help them make an otherwise
unmakeable contract.

Bidding 2s here rates to be safer in the long run. Think of it as
insurance--it may not make but it eliminates almost all of the worst
case scenarios and there are few postive scenarios with this hand.

[bd71]

 JLOGIC, on 2012-September-11, 07:17, said:

But how many people after leading a high spade and seeing encouragement from partner are honestly not continuing king and a spade?

As played, E/W were using UDCA and North played the 8♠ on the first trick. So wasn't clear to East (me) whether partner was encouraging or not.

[ggwhiz]

 JLOGIC, on 2012-September-11, 07:17, said:

And what is a likely defense on this hand? No doubt on a high spade lead you will all have a way to signal that you want partner to underlead to your queen but that you don't have a doubleton that wants a ruff. If you lead a high spade and you encourage though, and you are not on the ball, you might think "well partner has the queen or a doubleton...I will play king of spades spade, either way is good since I either tap declarer or give my partner a ruff while putting him in for a diamond through."

And after that, the hand is just over, in utterly predictable fashion since you have no trump spots other than the ten, and 5332.

On top of that, some opps might choose to compete to 3H over 2H with 2 small spades and pretty good trumps/hand.

At trick 2 after a spade lead east should find a club shift. But how many people after leading a high spade and seeing encouragement from partner are honestly not continuing king and a spade? A club shift instead is a very strong play.

This is giving you your best case scenario that the opponents are 3-3 in diamonds, partner has a good lead that doesn't blow a trick (which will often not be the case), and we have an entry, and the DK is on for us, and dummy has no doubleton. You still have to defend it pretty damn well to beat 2H on a hand that many would compete to 3H with. WD.

[ggwhiz]

 JLOGIC, on 2012-September-11, 07:17, said:

You still have to defend it pretty damn well to beat 2H on a hand that many would compete to 3H with. WD.

I think I'm beating 2♥ pretty easy on ♠K (count signal) A and a low spade.

[lalldonn]

 ggwhiz, on 2012-September-11, 14:35, said:

I think I'm beating 2♥ pretty easy on ♠K (count signal) A and a low spade.

Ruff, three rounds of clubs, ruff a spade brings declarer to 5 tricks. He exits with any diamond. West will eventually have to ruff and lead from his heart king. I mean what is this example hand? Partner was stronger than he had to be, declarer and dummy's hand both sucked, partner had a great lead, we had the diamond suit completely covered, and we still probably won't beat them. Doesn't this example hand, created specifically for the purpose of showing that passing is or might be right, just make it so clear that passing is wrong?

Before I read the actual hand or saw jlogic answer I knew I would not pass. I'm not even sure it's right to double if they compete to 3♥. But I think passing the second double is really really bad, although it's something a lot of players do. My own experience on this auction is the declaring side makes a LOT, and I'm sure most of those passes were better than KTxxx and on stronger hands than a 6 count. And he might have competed to 3. And you are helping him in the play. It's just not close.

[bd71]

 lalldonn, on 2012-September-11, 16:12, said:

Doesn't this example hand, created specifically for the purpose of showing that passing is or might be right, just make it so clear that passing is wrong?

LOL...this hand is straight from a sectional last weekend.

[lalldonn]

 bd71, on 2012-September-11, 17:54, said:

LOL...this hand is straight from a sectional last weekend.

I don't mean the actual hand, on that one clearly pass was wrong I mean the example that codo made up in a later post.

[the hog]

 Quantumcat, on 2012-September-11, 03:29, said:

If he has a normal takeout double, if we thought we should be in the auction knowing that, we would have bid. Why should he repeat himself? That would be like a 1nt opener rebidding 2nt over interference with responder passing throughout.

So you are saying a 40(5)4 12 count should not x again? You play a totally different game to me.

[Quantumcat]

 the hog, on 2012-September-11, 18:12, said:

So you are saying a 40(5)4 12 count should not x again? You play a totally different game to me.

If pard had four spades and a few HCP (like 4+ to 10-) he would have bid 2♠. So if you end up in 2♠ it will be on something around 16 total HCP with the good trumps getting forced. It's possible you have only 12-15 and responder made a heavy single raise and opener decided not to invite, and they wake up and bid game.
If pard has a few HCP you are unlikely to have a good minor fit, as pard would have bid with a five card or maybe good four card suit. So you might end up in a bad or OK fit with a decent amount of HCP (with which you'd rather defend, as you have a good shot at taking 2♥ down), or in an OK fit with few HCP (with which you'd rather suffer -110 than risk a variety of minuses), or worst case scenario, a bad fit and few HCPs, with which the opponents might even double you.
If you wanted pard to compete over 2♥, you should have given him more information by overcalling your five card suit, then making a takeout double. Then he will at least bid his two or three-card support rather than one of his other two or three card suits if he has the worst possible hand for you. He will also be more informed as to the option of passing - it wouldn't be very nice defending with an eight or nine card fit and only a slight edge over the opponents, would it?

If you are going to make another takeout double, you'd be prepared - you would have to not mind playing a 4-4 2♠ opposite a near yarborough, or a 4-3 2♠ where you will be reduced to 3-3 trumps after trick one, then 3-2 trumps after trick three, or 3-minor with a bad fit, and pard should be able to judge when to pass - if he is sure there is definitely no fit for your side, and he has some defence himself. A 12-count with 40(54) isn't prepared for any of this. Did you think about the upsides and downsides of doubling again, or did you just think, "well I'm better than I might have been, so I have to take some sort of action"?

[JLOGIC]

 lalldonn, on 2012-September-11, 16:12, said:

I'm not even sure it's right to double if they compete to 3♥.

I would not dream of doubling 3H if this happened. Agree with your whole post. I mean, it's a lot different to pass a double when they have a known fit than when they have a misfit/possible misfit. In general, passing takeotu doubles with KTxxx is bad if partner has a void (esp since he might be lighter overall), but he usually doesn't. This is much different when they have bid and raised obv, and I think people are passing way too aggressively without realizing how big of a difference this is.

Or maybe we are out of touch heh.

Quote

I think I'm beating 2♥ pretty easy on ♠K (count signal) A and a low spade.

I mean, no, not even close, and that is why passing when you're 5332 with no trump spots is a loser imo especially when they know the trumps are 5-0. It is just trivial to make on spade spade spade without even breaking a sweat, you have to follow to everything and don't get trump tricks.

[JLOGIC]

 Quantumcat, on 2012-September-11, 21:31, said:

If pard had four spades and a few HCP (like 4+ to 10-) he would have bid 2♠. So if you end up in 2♠ it will be on something around 16 total HCP with the good trumps getting forced. It's possible you have only 12-15 and responder made a heavy single raise and opener decided not to invite, and they wake up and bid game.
If pard has a few HCP you are unlikely to have a good minor fit, as pard would have bid with a five card or maybe good four card suit. So you might end up in a bad or OK fit with a decent amount of HCP (with which you'd rather defend, as you have a good shot at taking 2♥ down), or in an OK fit with few HCP (with which you'd rather suffer -110 than risk a variety of minuses), or worst case scenario, a bad fit and few HCPs, with which the opponents might even double you.
If you wanted pard to compete over 2♥, you should have given him more information by overcalling your five card suit, then making a takeout double. Then he will at least bid his two or three-card support rather than one of his other two or three card suits if he has the worst possible hand for you. He will also be more informed as to the option of passing - it wouldn't be very nice defending with an eight or nine card fit and only a slight edge over the opponents, would it?

If you are going to make another takeout double, you'd be prepared - you would have to not mind playing a 4-4 2♠ opposite a near yarborough, or a 4-3 2♠ where you will be reduced to 3-3 trumps after trick one, then 3-2 trumps after trick three, or 3-minor with a bad fit, and pard should be able to judge when to pass - if he is sure there is definitely no fit for your side, and he has some defence himself. A 12-count with 40(54) isn't prepared for any of this. Did you think about the upsides and downsides of doubling again, or did you just think, "well I'm better than I might have been, so I have to take some sort of action"?

It is circular, if partner is going to pass with 5 bad hearts, a bad hand, and 5332, then sure I would be scared to double again. But if partner is not, the downside is not that high, and you will often gain from pushing them to 3H or competing to your own partial.

By the way, I think you are just totally off base on your comments that 5440 should overcall and then double, I think if you solicit more opinions on this you will see you are in a great minority. Regardless, why do you think partner has 1 or 2 hearts when they have opened 1H and raised to 2H. Unless they are doing something weird, 5440 would be the most balanced shape possible for partner here.

[phil_20686]

Justin and Josh have convinced me its bad to pass. And since I am stubborn like a mule, you should all be convinced.

[phil_20686]

 JLOGIC, on 2012-September-11, 22:03, said:

your comments that 5440 should overcall and then double, I think if you solicit more opinions on this you will see you are in a great minority.

Was that meant to be 5044 or 40(54)? I would always overcall and double later with a fifth spade. I would never dream of overcalling in a minor though with the other two shapes. This seems standard to me. I might even double with 40(63) depending on texture.