cherdano, on 2014-December-09, 04:54, said:
First off, I agree with you that bidding clubs first, then spades, doesn't work. We might do the same with 4-6 the other way in the black suits.
But I still wonder what to do over 4♥ after 3♠ (which I would do also). The most likely hand for partner at this point is a balanced hand with exactly 2 spades (weak and balanced is already the most likely hand to start with; it gets even more likely given that RHO has the red suits and I have the black suits). He could be 2=4=4=3 or 2=3=5=3 or 2=3=3=5 or 2=3=4=4, etc. Obviously, if we knew partner had the balanced hand, we would bid 4♠ not 5♣.
Is "most likely balanced" strong enough indication to make us bid 4♠ opposite his ambiguous opening, too?
The problem is primarily our methods which, to me, suck big time. I can't see how the OP method generates gains that offset the obvious problems that arise when one can and should (???) open 1
♣ on 3=3=5=2 hands. I suspect the idea is to split the 1N rebid, but a far easier fix is to play 14-16 1N, so that the 1N rebid is 11-13. 14-16 has significant theoretical advantages over the traditional 15-17 anyway (tho, in fairness, it has some downsides as well).
As it is, the OP method means that we cannot know if we have any fit whatsoever, which tells us all we need to know about how effective this method is in competitive auctions.
However, we can't do anything about the method mid-hand (tho I'd be having a serious discussion with partner after this hand, whether I guessed 'right' or not).
3
♠ seems ok to me, if only because on many hands, partner will be able to raise to game, especially in competition.
As you note, the real issue is when LHO bids 4
♥ and the auction is passed back to us...and we can all see that a BIT by partner creates a real mess should that happen.
We are in a guessing situation. I suppose one could try 4
♠ hoping that it works, and planning to pull to 5
♣ if doubled, which might teach LHO a lesson if partner held something like x xxxx AQx KQxxx
Tbh, I don't know what I would do at the table, and I suspect it would depend upon my mood at the time, my sense of the action and so on. Most importantly, in terms of being able to predict my action, I can truly say that I would never be in this position: the closest I would be would be if partner were 3=4=3=3, and then he may have been able to bid 4
♠, altho in fairness that shape hardly shouts to bid on.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari