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How Do You Like You Chances?

#1 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-14, 15:45

IMPs



E leads 8. A, 9, 2.

How do you rate your chances, having escaped a heart lead? Opponents lead 4th best from a sequence below 1098x.
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#2 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2015-February-14, 20:01

Is it really that much work to put the dummy on top?
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#3 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2015-February-15, 01:34

I quite like my chances. After running 6 s opponents will have to discard quite a lot without knowing much information about declarer (North... :rolleyes: ). A finesse can bring our total up to 8 and if opps have discarded enough s we can make a trick (or maybe even a 3rd ).
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#4 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-15, 12:25

View PostFree, on 2015-February-15, 01:34, said:

I quite like my chances. After running 6 s opponents will have to discard quite a lot without knowing much information about declarer (North... :rolleyes: ). A finesse can bring our total up to 8 and if opps have discarded enough s we can make a trick (or maybe even a 3rd ).


Why did W lead the 8?
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2015-February-16, 13:32

View Postmasonbarge, on 2015-February-15, 12:25, said:

Why did W lead the 8?

That would be a lead out of turn. East lead...
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#6 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-February-18, 19:28

Chances are slim with that singleton heart K on the board. If we try to run clubs surely
the opps carding will keep them on track. IMHO I lead a low dia toward the K at trick 2 hope
hope it holds and take the spade finesse hoping to squeeze in 9 ricks that way. BTW I do not
like our chances:(
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#7 User is offline   nate_m 

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Posted 2015-February-18, 20:27

I mean if RHO has the spade guard, the diamond ace, and the QJ of hearts we are making in style. I don't like my chances but I'll play for that by running clubs.
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#8 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 00:06

Chances aren't as bad as they look. Which is to say, better than hoping for a singleton 10 or doubleton 108. E. is leading from club shortness to keep from giving a trick, so he rates likely to have honors in the other suits.

This is an actual hand from a Bot tourny. E had AQJ and K108x! (And the A.) Nate wins a flat top.

It's an amusing hand (although it would be more amusing if it happened with someone you knew playing E).
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#9 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 02:51

View PostPhil, on 2015-February-14, 20:01, said:

Is it really that much work to put the dummy on top?

is it really that tough to inform a newcomer about custom rules in a civilized manner?
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#10 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 02:53

View Postmasonbarge, on 2015-February-19, 00:06, said:

Chances aren't as bad as they look. Which is to say, better than hoping for a singleton 10 or doubleton 108. E. is leading from club shortness to keep from giving a trick, so he rates likely to have honors in the other suits.

This is an actual hand from a Bot tourny. E had AQJ and K108x! (And the A.) Nate wins a flat top.

It's an amusing hand (although it would be more amusing if it happened with someone you knew playing E).


If he had only AQJ all lines work, he only has A+AQJ to cash if you try to sneak a diamond trick.
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#11 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 08:16

View PostFluffy, on 2015-February-19, 02:51, said:

is it really that tough to inform a newcomer about custom rules in a civilized manner?


An "expert" with 80 recent posts is not a newcomer.
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#12 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 14:01

View PostFluffy, on 2015-February-19, 02:53, said:

If he had only AQJ all lines work, he only has A+AQJ to cash if you try to sneak a diamond trick.


Good one. And, for that matter, you could lead a heart as long as you'd ensured he didn't have a club left. Playing IMPs, a heart lead at trick two or three might be fun anyway. Assuming E has to win it, no telling what he might return.

Sadly, although I don't have a copy of the hand any longer, I'm sure I would have noticed if he only had 3 hearts.
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