awm, on 2018-November-09, 05:17, said:
In my opinion, one of the big problems in the US is the phenomenon of “failing upwards.” Someone loses an election or does badly in a management position, and somehow the result is that they get promoted to a more powerful position. The “someone” in these situations is almost always a white male (and “charismatic” is a common adjective for such men).
I would’ve hoped the Democratic Party would be less susceptible to this but the hype around a presidential run for Beto makes me doubt it. Stacey Abrams also appears to have come up just short in a run for statewide office in a very red state, as does Andrew Gillum. In fact their races were even closer (still pending recounts)! I don’t hear anyone talking them up as White House contenders. Surely it’s just because Beto is more “charismatic” (which might or might not be a synonym for white male).
If we’re looking for a white male “savior” we might take a look at Sherrod Brown (who won in increasingly red Ohio, by a landslide). We also have a lot of exciting young politicians with a bit more diversity (like Kamala Harris for example). Sure winning in Texas is hard for a Democrat but I just don’t get the degree of hype.
Some more statistics.
In 2008, in a Democratic wave, Obama lost in Texas by 12%. In 2012, Obama lost by 16%, in 2016, Clinton lost by 9% to an unpopular Dennison. This may not be horseshoes where being close counts, but Beto clearly outperformed expectations when initially he was give no chance to win before he caught fire.
Georgia is a red state, but it's trending bluer with the dynamic growth of the Atlanta region. In 2016, Clinton lost in Georgia by 5%. In 2012, Obama lost by 8%, and in 2008 Blue wave election, Obama lost by 5%. Clearly there are degrees of red, and Georgia isn't close to being as red as Texas. Clearly voter suppression by Republican Kemp affected election results but the overall number of votes is unknown.
As far as Florida goes, Florida is barely red. Dennison won Florida in 2016 by just over 1%, Obama won Florida in 2012 by less than 1%, and in the 2008 Blue wave election, Obama won by 3%. I won't go into details about the closeness of the the 2000 election. Democrat Bill Nelson has been a US Senator since 2000. Gillum was favored to win by most polls going into the election, and I read an article saying that Bill Nelson was getting pulled ahead by the popularity of Gillum. Obviously the polls were wrong.
I really like Kamala Harris, but she was elected in California which is one of the bluest states in the US. How will she do in the swing states (or mildly red) which decide presidential elections? That's a big unknown. Beto now has a track record of being able to draw votes even in a deep red state, plus a lot of name recognition due to running in the 2nd most populous state in a very high profile race.
I also really like Sherrod Brown. But he's been in politics forever and is 66 years old without a big national following. Maybe he could do a Bernie Sanders and come out of nowhere to be competitive in the next primary battle but he has said he isn't interested in running so there's that.